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Domestic Policies Politics presidential

The Polling Report: December 6, 2011

This article was originally posted on my blog: www.anjfarmer.blogspot .com. If you like it, please visit and read more of my posts.

Since our last episode, on November 6, one year before the national elections, much has changed in the race for president. We are currently in the middle (end? beginning?) of the Gingrich ascendancy, and there is some evidence (from this CBS News poll) that Newt could pull off a stunning comeback win in Iowa, which would put him in terrific position for New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada later in January. So with that appetizing thought in our heads, let’s move on to the main meal.

Obama Job Approval

The latest RealClearPolitics Index of Obama’s job approval is here. Since last month, Obama’s approval has dropped from 45.3% to 43.8% and his disapproval has risen slightly, from 50.7% in November to 50.8% today. A look at the main 3-day averages that RCP uses, Gallup and Rasmussen, shows almost no change in Obama’s improvement. Further, this article puts Obama’s approval lower than Jimmy Carter’s at the same stage in their presidencies. Clearly, this is not good news for the President’s supporters.

Head-To-Head Match-ups

These number tell a much different story. While more Americans disapprove of the job the president is doing, they favor him over every other prospective Republican nominee.

He’s also slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the swing state of Florida, but only by 1 point.

The Republican Field

It’s the Newt show at this point, and that’s a very recent phenomenon, coming on the heels of, and in some ways caused by, the implosion of Herman Cain’s campaign. The numbers are stark and solid, but the real question is, how long will they last?

Perhaps more troubling for Mitt Romney’s campaign are these results from pollsandvotes.com showing Romney’s support actually dropping in the first four states to hold votes next month. If Mitt doesn’t watch out, he might be in a position where a less-than-solid win in New Hampshire could be seen as a failure or a “he’s supposed to win” moment that doesn’t pay off in the long run.

My sense is that Romney will win most of the January states simply because, at this point, Gingrich doesn’t have a presence in these states that would allow him to conduct the retail politics necessary to corral votes. It’s even more uphill for Newt in Iowa, where getting your people to the caucuses is the main concern.  Still, he does have money and is beginning to air TV ads that will reach far more people than getting out and shaking hands.

But Romney also has to be concerned. Conservatives will show up in droves this year, and he could find himself third, behind Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. That would be quite a fall. Romney didn’t think he would have to fight hard for Iowa since he’s been in the state for the past two years, but that’s changed now.

The Ballots

The Electoral College map hasn’t budged since November.

And neither has the Generic Congressional Ballot, which shows Democrats leading Republicans by 1.2%

Although it’s very early in the campaign, Obama’s strategists have mapped out his electoral college strategy, and it looks something like this:

First, the president is aiming to win all the states John Kerry won in 2004. That would bring him to 246 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania’s mother lode of 20. Add New Mexico, which the president won in 2008, and that’s five more electoral votes. Now he’s at 251.

Then it gets hard. The final 19 electoral votes would come through a process of mix and match.

North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona are in the mix, with each showing both promise and peril for Obama’s reelection chances.

That’s it for now. Before I push-off for the holidays (I’ll post another polling report on January 3 for Iowa), let me suggest some gifts for the political junkie in your household. Or in your shoes.

From Amazon, if you’re one of those people who still reads (how 2009!)

Obama curios

Gag gifts.

The best free gift!

Cheers.

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Politics

Maryland Republican Found Guilty Of Voter Suppression Charges

Back in June, we brought you this story of two Republican aides indicted on voter suppression charges. The two, Paul Schurick and Julius Hen­son, were accused of sending over 100,000 robo calls to mostly blacks and minorities in Maryland, telling them not to vote, because Pres­i­dent Obama and the Demo­c­ra­tic con­tender for gov­er­nor, Mr. O’Malley, had already won.

“Hello,” the robo call said, “I’m call­ing to let every­one know that Gov­er­nor O’Malley and Pres­i­dent Obama have been suc­cess­ful. Our goals have been met. The polls were cor­rect, and we took it back. We’re okay. Relax. Everything’s fine. The only thing left is to watch it on TVtonight. Con­grat­u­la­tions, and thank you.”

Well justice is served. Earlier today, a jury of their peers found the first of the two, Mr. Paul Schurick guilty of voter suppression.

A Baltimore jury Tuesday found Paul Schurick, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s campaign manager, guilty of election fraud and related charges for his role in an Election Day 2010 robocall.

The jury found Schurick guilty on all four counts, including election fraud and failing to include an Ehrlich campaign authorization line on the calls. After the verdict was read, Schurick clutched his wife, who burst into tears.

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Politics Republican Rick Scott

Florida’s Rick Scott – The Most Unpopular Governor In America

Governor Rick Scott of Florida. Remember him? The Republican governor who rode into the state on his white Teaparty horse in November 2010, promising to create jobs and providing every household with an unlimited supply of manna from above? Remember him? Well it seems that Floridians have had enough of the far-right ideology that Scott promotes, and plus, the manna was too dry!

In a new PPP poll, Scott’s already low approval ratings fell even further. And according to the PPP, it is not Democrats or Independents causing the sinking feeling in Scott’s Florida – no, it is his fellow Republicans abandoning ship!

PPP Poll found;

Rick Scott has hit a new low in PPP’s Florida polling with only 26% of voters now approving of his job performance to 58% who disapprove. His previous worst numbers had come in June when he had a 33% approval rating with 59% unhappy with his performance. Scott’s numbers with Democrats are pretty much unchanged compared to then and his standing with independents has gotten a little better.  What’s really caused the bottom to drop out for him is that even Republicans are starting to really sour on his leadership. In June Scott had a 63/30 approval spread with them. That’s now dropped all the way down to 46/31.

Scott is the most unpopular Governor in the country in PPP’s polling.

Buyers remorse indeed!

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Donald Trump Donald Trump Newt Gingrich Politics

Book Salesmen And Television Personalities Don’t Really Want To Be President

You listen to these Republicans bitch about the economy, the “failures” of President Obama and how,  if given a chance, they would be able to turn things around. To right what’s wrong in America, and they will do this while giving their inaugural address!

Pay close attention to any of the presidential candidates and you will hear their claims.  “…anyone on this stage can do a better job than this president,”,  Gingrich said at a recent Republican debate. This claim was regularly repeated by Herman Cain and is a staple in many Mitt Romney speeches.

But with just about all these Republican candidates vigorously promoting their “newly released” books, how genuine is their bid for the White House? Will they really give up the financial benefits of being number one on the New York Times Best Sellers List to be the Number One in the white house?

If you look at how these candidates are campaigning, you will understand where their priorities lie. Herman Cain spent more time at book signing events  than he did on the campaign trail, and with the Republican primaries just weeks away, Newt Gingrich, the leader in the Republican field, spent yesterday in New York instead of Iowa where voting is almost set to begin, selling copies of his book and meeting with Donald Trump.

And speaking of Donald Trump. He is promoting his new book, just as he was promoting his television show a few months ago when he lead the Republican field for the nomination. With a new book to sell, Trump is once again capturing the limelight and floating the idea of running for president as an independent. He recently told USA TODAY;

“If they pick somebody who I think can’t win and if they pick somebody who is, in my opinion, the wrong person … and if the economy continues to be bad, I might run as an independent.

If he really believed that he could make a difference, that a Trump presidency would “turn this economy around” like he preached when he was the leader of the pack this past summer, then why didn’t he build on that lead and help save America?

Because, like Newt Gingrich and many of the other Republican candidates, he’s just a salesman doing what the people of his trade  do best – selling. Here’s Trump’s explanation for why he decided not to continue his run for president – basically – he’d have to give up his television show and that was just too much of a sacrifice for a television personality to make;

“Other people don’t give up anything when they run,” he said. “You give up a top, prime-time television show and I don’t want to sound trivial but that’s a lot.”

Sell on guys, your Republican base deserves nothing more.

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Politics Teacher

Lies, Damn Lies, and the Truth About Teacher Tenure

Have you heard the latest story about teachers and tenure? No? It goes like this. A teacher was given stellar evaluations for two and a half years. In the spring of the third year, the principal wrote a savagely negative review of one of the teacher’s lessons because the teacher made comments about how cold their classroom was during the winter, and that  the children were complaining that it was difficult to concentrate. Parents called the principal to complain. The principal was embarrassed and wrote a negative evaluation. The teacher never received tenure.

Never heard that one?

How about this one? A student accused a tenured teacher of using inappropriate language in the classroom. The principal didn’t get along well with this teacher, an officer in the local teacher’s association, and made it abundantly clear that all they needed was an excuse to cause the teacher trouble. After a cursory investigation, the principal recommended that the teacher lose their salary increment for the next year because teachers shouldn’t use foul language in front of students. Two months later, the student admitted lying about the incident because they were upset with a grade they received in the teacher’s class. The teacher was given back the salary increase that was taken from them.

Chances are good that you never heard that story either.

Why do I mention these incidents, both of which actually occurred? Because they illustrate the difference between a teacher having fair dismissal rights and one that does not. They also illustrate the lies and misinformation floating around about what tenure actually means in practice.

Nowhere is this in more vivid view than Tom Moran’s piece in Sunday’s Newark Star-Ledger. It’s essentially a response to an article by Janine Walker Caffrey, the Superintendent of Schools in Perth Amboy, NJ. Both of these writings sound the alarm bells that the public loves to hear. From Moran:

Janine Caffrey, the schools superintendent in Perth Amboy, could hardly believe the teacher was so incompetent.

The kids didn’t have needed textbooks. There was no lesson plan. Other teachers complained that students were learning nothing. And when the principal demanded changes, the teacher wouldn’t budge.

So Caffrey, a spark plug of energy, left her sparsely furnished office to meet the teacher for a showdown, ready to whap some sense into this person once and for all.

But it didn’t work out that way.

“This teacher looked me in the eye and said, ‘I won’t do it.’ Just an outright refusal. And this has happened to multiple people before me. We’ve done multiple corrective action plans, and it’s not achieving any results.”

So the teacher won the showdown and is still standing in front of a classroom full of kids every day, supremely secure in defiance.

Only one word can explain this insanity: tenure.

It certainly sounds horrible, and if the story is true, that teacher should not be teaching in the public schools. The real problem is not tenure, though. It’s buried deep in Morans’ article and it goes like this: 

To be fair, districts share some of the blame as well. Tenure rules might be crazy, but it is possible to get rid of the worst teachers if the district builds a solid case with a paper trail. In the case of the refusenik teacher, Perth Amboy failed to do that. The teacher had won satisfactory evaluations in the past, as nearly all teachers do.

The problem, my friends, is that the principal was not doing their job. There’s no sharing here. If principals are not building cases or informing the teacher’s association representatives that a teacher is a problem, or is having a problem, then the principal is at fault. All on their own. And if the principal or supervisor is routinely giving positive reviews to ineffective or bad teachers, they need to stop. I don’t know where Moran gets his “nearly all teachers” receive satisfactory evaluations data. My guess is that he’s simply repeating what he’s heard. It’s a great story, but he needs to support his statements with facts.

Why is this all on the administration and not the teacher’s union? Because the NJEA has nothing to do with whether a teacher earns tenure. The legislature wrote and passed the tenure laws and school administrators are responsible for implementing them.

Tenure is not a job for life. It’s a guarantee that a teacher cannot be fired for frivolous, personal, vindictive reasons by administrators who don’t like them or need to install a relative in their place.

Tenure is a requirement that a teacher who has earned it is confronted by evidence of misdeed, misconduct or behavior that puts children at risk.

Tenure is earned after working, with positive recommendations by the Superintendent, Principal and, if necessary, Department Supervisor, for three years in the same school district. It shouldn’t be handed out like candy at Halloween, but sometimes it is. And it’s not the teacher’s fault. The responsibility is all on the administrator. And if Superintendents like Janine Caffrey do not build a case, then a bad teacher can only be removed by going through the process, which Moran cites in a nifty chart in his article.

Moran and Caffrey also bring up how much it costs to discipline or fire a teacher who has earned tenure. The NJEA has offered a tenure reform plan that would streamline the process so it would take 90 days at most, as opposed to the possible two plus years it takes now, to settle cases. That would help, but it would do nothing to solve the problem of administrators doling out good reviews to ineffective or bad teachers.

So what to do?

How about having principals and supervisors observe teachers 8 times per year for the first three years (or four years as the NJEA plan proposes) and 6 times a year once they’ve earned tenure? That would create a tremendous amount of data by which a teacher could be evaluated before and after they’ve earned tenure. And since the overwhelming majority of teachers who do earn tenure deserve it and are members of the best teaching staff in the country as measured by national test scores, observing them a few more times might catch the few who would be problems down the road. Another good idea would be to have a teacher’s first year be a residency year, where someone new to the profession could receive help from a qualified mentor. This mentoring could then continue for the next 3 years.

One other issue also rears its head when people discuss tenure, and that’s the question of why teachers have it and other professions don’t. My answer is that other professions should have some kind of objective job protection. The arguments against public workers by governors such as Chris Christie, Scott Walker and John Kasich revolve around the idea that since private sector workers don’t have these benefits, then no workers should have them. They seem to be more concerned with breaking the unions than they do with actually improving education.

That’s backwards.

The decline of unions has meant that workers are more and more at the mercy of management and it’s time that we changed that conversation. Terrible stories, such as the ones in Moran’s article only illustrate one side of the debate. If school management would all do their jobs in an honest, forthright way, we could more readily dismiss ineffective teachers. And that would be a positive step forward for everyone.

Take another positive step forward and visit us at facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

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Newt Gingrich Politics Republican Party

Newt Gingrich Is Leading – So Much For The Conservatives Claim To Morals

It seems the Christian Conservatives and Republicans have made up their minds.

In a party that claims to have  moralistic superiority when it comes to family values, Christian Conservatives in the Republican party have settled on Newt this-is-my-third-marriage-after-serving-my-wife-divorce-papers-while-she-laid-in-a-hospital-bed-recovering-from-cancer Gingrich.

A new Poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowa found that Gingrich, once left for dead in the Republican nomination process, has taken a commanding lead.

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP’s last poll of the race in early October.  Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%.  Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

The poll was conducted between December 2nd and December 5th. PPP surveyed 572 Republican caucus voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1%

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chuck todd Donald Trump Donald Trump Featured MSNBC Stupid

Donald Trump Gets Angry – Yells At Chuck Todd In Interview

That’s what you get when you ask a  nincompoop on your show for an interview. You get a nincompoop response to your question and everyone else watching collectively say, “you asked for that, you should have known better!”

That’s what MSNBC’s Chuck Todd got today when he tried interviewing Donald Trump. Straight off the bat, Donald went into a tirade, accusing Todd of lying and making sure the world know that MSNBC called him, The Donald, and not the other way around.

Chuck Todd asked Donald to respond to a poll of Republicans, where the majority of respondents said they are not likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump. This made Trump livid. We’re sure he popped his wig at the poll’s suggestion that he is not as popular with Republicans as he would like to think.

Donald Trump is a regular on Fox News program. You can bet Fox will show this clip on a loop when the nincompoop makes his next appearance.

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Mitt Romney Politics Republican

Mitt Romney Says He’s Not A Career Politician. Let’s Go To The Video Tape

Another superb production by the DNC. This time, taking on the false claim by Republican Presidential candidate, Mitt Romney: “I didn’t spend my life in politics.”

Well, maybe not your  entire life Mitt, but a huge portion of it was spent in politics, and we’re sure if children were allowed to run for political office, you would have been first in line.

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Donald Trump Donald Trump Politics presidential Republican

Donald Trump Calls Ron Paul A “Joke Candidate”

Ron Paul said no to a Donald Trump moderated debate, and Donald Trump fires back.

 “Ron Paul’s not going to win. He’s got no chance. You have a better chance right now of winning, and you’re not running, and so he’s not going to win. He’s a joke candidate.”

Oh the wonders of the Republican party!

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CNN Featured Martin Luther King Slavery

This Is What They Mean When They Say “I Want My Country Back”

Roland Martin of CNN and the Editor-In-Chief of Roland Martin Reports, published a letter on his blog from someone he called a “bigot.” Curiosity got the best of me, as I wanted to see why someone who worked for CNN would use such a word to describe anyone. A short time later, I realized why Roland used the word and I totally agree with his description.

The author of the letter posted by Martin is James Edwards, or as Roland called him, “Bigot.”

For example, “Bigot” tried to describe the difference between the races. He explained that “only 3 million nucleotide SNPs separate the races,” and he went on saying that within a decade, we will have a better understanding of these nucleotide SNP’s. This understanding, “Bigot” said, would;

… pinpoint the DNA that gives blacks such a remarkable talent for music, Asians a talent for math, and whites an incredible talent for creativity and inventiveness. If it wasn’t for whites, you would be practicing your own culture in Africa– just starving to death in a mud hut. At least, for the 60% or so of your genes that are African. African-Americans are really more like dark Latinos.

“Given this situation, I am really very moderate in my views, almost liberal. I just want segregation and an end to immigration, not the mass genocide that could easily be justified under even the simplest understanding of evolution. Life is supposed to be a struggle for survival; a survival of the fittest. I OWN you, nigger. Whites have invented technology making slavery obsolete– it’s now cheaper to just make everything with technology. So, chuk your spear, use your own culture to fight sniper rifles and helicopters with machine guns; replacing you wouldn’t even be much of a challenge.

The economy is going to keep shrinking and shedding jobs from here on out, which will cause third parties to be successful due to the outrage of Americans at their country slipping into the Third World. We are already becoming a Third World nation, but we will be victorious and take this country back, and return it to the `50s, when we had moral and racial integrity. You will be put in your place, and whites will one again take their ruling place as the masters of their own cultural heritage.”

So, to all who are not ‘pure‘-white, “chuk your spear” and be prepared to struggle and fight  for our rights as American citizens…once again!

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Newt Gingrich Politics Republican republican candidate

Will The Gingrich Steal Christmas (Or Is Newt Moot)?

Consider: This has been the year of economic gloom, a devastating Japanese tsunami, an earthquake in Virginia, a hurricane in New England, and a destructive East Coast snow storm before Halloween. These are bad enough.

Are we really headed for a holiday season dominated by discussion of Newt Gingrich’s chances in the Republican primaries? The fates are indeed playing a cruel joke on us mere mortals.

The stories and analysis are coming fast and furious. Let’s see…

So which Newt are we going to get? And why should we care? After all, he’s not going to win the nomination.

I still think that ring will be worn by Mitt Romney, the subject of a long story in the New York Times Magazine today. It’s not an especially flattering account, but it gets to the heart of how Romney intends to win next year. From the article:

Mitt Romney’s campaign has decided upon a rather novel approach to winning the presidency. It has taken a smart and highly qualified but largely colorless candidate and made him exquisitely one-dimensional: All-Business Man, the world’s most boring superhero. In the recent past, aspirants and their running mates have struggled to clear the regular-guy bar. Dan Quayle lacked a sense of struggle; Michael Dukakis couldn’t emote even when asked what he would do if his wife were raped and murdered; George H. W. Bush seemed befuddled by a grocery-store scanner; John Kerry was a windsurfer; John McCain couldn’t count all of his houses. 

Romney, a socially awkward Mormon with squishy conservative credentials and a reported worth in the range of $190 million to $250 million, is betting that in 2012, recession-weary voters want a fixer, not a B.F.F. As the Romney campaign’s chief strategist, Stuart Stevens, told me: “The economy is overwhelmingly the issue. Our whole campaign is premised on the idea that this is a referendum on Obama, the economy is a disaster and Obama is uniquely blocked from being able to talk about jobs.” 

What happens when the economy starts improving? This is the oft-repeated conundrum of the candidate running against a recession. Ronald Reagan made it an issue in 1980 and won overwhelmingly. Bill Clinton hammered George H.W. Bush about the economy and defeated him, despite the fact that the economy was improving during the fall of 1992. In 2012, Romney will be in a position where he has to hope that things don’t markedly improve before the election. For an American exceptionalist, it must hurt him to have to root against jobs, rising wages, recovering banks and the success of the euro zone, but I think he believes that if he smiles all the time, voters will forgive him.

And Newt (this is a story about Newt)? Well, Newt is touting his résumé these days.. He’s running on ending communism and getting the economy moving in the 90s, despite voting against (and having every Republican vote against) the Clinton budget of 1993 that set the stage for the decade’s expansion. On that issue, Newt is moot. But, again, it doesn’t matter, because Newt will never be the GOP nominee.

The pundits tell us it’s a two-man race over on the right, now that Herman Cain has dropped out and the other retreads have had their days in the sun and their corresponding sunsets. I feel bad for John Huntsman, who never got his renaissance, and who might qualify as the only reasonable Republican in the race. But this is the year of the uncompromising conservative and I imagine that Mitt and Newt will fight to see who can oppose abortion, taxes and union rights more than the other.

The good news is that the holidays are fast approaching, and this year, we’ve really earned the good cheer.

For more good cheer, visit me at facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

This post originally appeared on my blog: anjfarmer.blogspot.com

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Herman Cain Steven Colbert

Herman Cain’s Problem? He’s Gay – Steven Colbert

And we thought Herman Cain had a woman (or multiple women) problem all along. Steven Colbert, through a process of elimination, has put his finger on the real issue Herman Cain is hiding.

According to Colbert, Cain is gay, that’s why he cancelled an appearance on The Colbert Report. Colbert figured Cain couldn’t stand being around all his beauty.

Video

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