Tag: polls

Trump’s Approval Ratings Fall Again to New Lows

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date May 10, 2017
No Comments on Trump’s Approval Ratings Fall Again to New Lows

Just days after Trump’s discouraging first 100 days in office, and just hours after he fired FBI Director James Comey for – get this – re-opening the email scandal case against Hillary Clinton, new polling shows a new low in Trump’s approval.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump’s disapproval rating rising to 58 percent – a new high in Quinnipiac’s regular polling and the highest in a high-quality, non-tracking poll since his inauguration. Just 36 percent approved of Trump’s job performance.

The only other poll to show his disapproval that high since his inauguration was Gallup, which briefly showed his disapproval rating ticking up to 59 percent in March before it dropped to 52 percent a week later.

The Quinnipiac poll also shows the president’s favorable rating – more of a personal measure than a job measure – dropping to a new low of 35 percent. The percentage of Americans who strongly approve of him is tied for an all-time low at 25 percent. And the percentage who strongly disapprove has reached an all-time high of 51 percent.

Tags donald trump, polls

Donald Trump Donald Trump Featured

Donald Trump’s Approval Ratings Drop To New Lows

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date April 4, 2017
No Comments on Donald Trump’s Approval Ratings Drop To New Lows

What do you expect? The man has been a total failure since Russia bulldozed him into the White House!

Just 34 percent of the country approved of the job Trump is doing, down from 44.1 percent in March, according to the latest survey this week from Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (IBD/TIPP). The president’s approval rating remained well underwater, with 56 percent of the respondents disapproving of his job performance.

Some key supporters have begun to migrate away from Trump, notably Republicans, independents and white men. Trump’s approval among Republicans dropped to just 74 percent, a 14-percentage-point tumble from last month, according to IBD/TIPP. His approval among independents fell 11 percentage points to 29 percent. Among white men, one of Trump’s strongest demographic bases, his approval rating fell from 58 percent to 49 percent.

Tags donald trump, polls

Donald Trump Politics

Hillary Leads Trump in 3 Battleground States

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date October 30, 2016
No Comments on Hillary Leads Trump in 3 Battleground States

These are the polls Donald Trump hates. He loves the polls from his campaign showing him in the lead. Reminds me of Mitt Romney.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado, while the Republican presidential nominee leads his Democratic rival in Arizona, according to new polling.

Clinton holds an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a CBS News Battleground tracker poll out Sunday morning, and has 3-point leads in North Carolina, 48 percent to 45 percent, and Colorado, 42 percent to 39 percent.

Trump is up by 2 points in Arizona, 44 percent to 42 percent.

Tags hillary clinton, polls

Donald Trump Politics

Hillary Clinton Now Leads Trump by Double Digits

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date October 11, 2016
No Comments on Hillary Clinton Now Leads Trump by Double Digits

What a difference a sexual assault claim makes

Clinton is now favored by 49 percentof likely voters and Trump is backed by 38 percent.

The poll shows Clinton increasing her lead over the Republican nominee. A poll conducted two weeks ago showed both major party’s nominees tied among likely voters at 43 percent.

A portion of the poll was conducted after the release of a 2005 tape in which Trump is heard making lewd comments about women. In the tape, the GOP nominee describes how he can grope and kiss women without their consent because of his celebrity status. The tape’s release has led to fallout among some Republicans, who say they can no longer support their party’s nominee.

Tags hillary clinton, polls

Donald Trump Politics

Poll – Democrats’ Chance of Winning Better with Bernie – #BetterWithBernie

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date March 31, 2016
No Comments on Poll – Democrats’ Chance of Winning Better with Bernie – #BetterWithBernie

A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that in a general election match up, Senator Bernie Sanders has a better chance of beating any of the Republican candidates than Secretary Hillary Clinton.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton would beat Trump by a 53 to 33 percent margin, pollsters found. She would also top Cruz by a 21 points and edge Kasich by 5 points.

Bernie Sanders’s victory margin over Trump, meantime, would be 24 points, 56 to 32 percent. He would beat Cruz by 28 points and Kasich by 10 points.

The telephone survey was conducted from March 22 through March 29, ending as Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, was charged with battery. It was completed before the businessman’s comments on abortion sparked a firestorm.

Tags bernie sanders, hillary clinton, polls, ted cruz

Politics

Poll – Bernie Sanders Gains Ground on Hillary Clinton

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date November 23, 2015

Although the new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton gaining 3 percentage points, the same poll shows Bernie Sanders increasing his support by 10 points.

According to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, Hillary Clinton has gone from leading Bernie Sanders 56%-22% in October to 59%-35% in November. Support for Sen. Sanders is up thirteen percent, and support for former Sec. of State Clinton has gone up by three percent in the past month. Voters said that the three most important issues in the election are the economy (33%), healthcare (13%), and immigration (10%).

The poll reveals that Sanders had made gains with Democrats and Democratic leaners under age 50. Sen. Sanders has also made limited gains among non-whites and women.

Tags bernie sanders, hillary clinton, polls

Politics

Bernie Sanders on Clinton’s Surge – “We are still the underdog”

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date November 3, 2015

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has reestablished herself as the inevitable Democratic presidential candidate, and according to her opponent Senator Bernie Sanders, that’s to be expected at this stage in the race. Sanders however, is convinced that when it’s all said and done, he will be the eventual Democratic nominee.

“We are taking on the political establishment, we’re taking on the economic establishment,” Sanders told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Tuesday when asked about his lagging poll numbers in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday. “We started as the underdog we are still the underdog. But the kind of enthusiasm that we are generating tells me that at the end of the day we are gonna win this election.”

Clinton has double Sanders’ numbers, 62 percent to his 31 percent in the poll released Tuesday. Her lead has gone up slightly from October when the former secretary of state had 58 percent and Sanders had 33 percent. Overall, Clinton’s Real Clear Politics polling average lead over Sanders has jumped from 15 points on Oct. 3 to 24 points on Nov. 3. Clinton has also taken back the lead in some New Hampshire polls.

Mitchell asked Sanders what had gone wrong.

“I don’t think it’s a question of things going wrong, you know when we started this campaign we were at 3 or 4 percent in the polls. Since that point we have done extremely well in many states around this country,” Sanders replied.

Tags bernie sanders, hillary clinton, polls

Ben Carson Donald Trump Politics

Donald Trump Explains – Polls “are not very scientific” When He’s Losing

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date October 27, 2015
No Comments on Donald Trump Explains – Polls “are not very scientific” When He’s Losing

Donald Trump is all about the polls. He basically has nothing else to talk about on the campaign trail so at every stop, he’ll take the podium and talk about how “unbelievable” it is that the polls have him leading.

“Can you believe it?” He’ll ask his followers as he point to yet another poll showing him leading. “Even in this NBC poll, I’m ahead.” Then he’ll point the audience’s attention to what the poll says, ‘Trump leads in the polls! ‘“This is unbelievable,” he’ll say.

That was then, this is now.

As polls after polls show Ben Carson leading Trump in the early voting state of Iowa, Donald Trump has become the biggest critic of polls. In an interview on MSNBC’S Morning Joe, Trump was asked to explains why polls are great when he’s leading, but bad when he’s behind.

His explanation? Poll are “not very scientific” when he is losing.

“How do you justify or explain attacking polls where you’re behind but celebrating polls when you’re ahead?” Bloomberg Politics managing editor Mark Halperin asked Trump on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“I believe in polls. I generally believe in polls,” Trump said. “The thing with these polls, they’re all so different. They’re coming from all over the lot where one guy is up here, somebody else is up there, you see swings of 10 and 12 points immediately, even the same day.”

“So right now its not very scientific,” Trump continued. “I think it’s very hard when you have this many. But over all Mark, I am a believer in polls, they say something. At least they spot a trend.”

Tags losing, polls

Politics

Americans Prefer Democrats, Gerrymandering Favors Republicans

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date April 4, 2013
No Comments on Americans Prefer Democrats, Gerrymandering Favors Republicans

This report conducted by Think Progress is based on a recent Quinnipiac poll released today, showing that if the election were held today, 43 percent of the electorate would support a Democratic U.S. House candidate, as opposed to just 35 percent who would back a Republican.

That 8 point lead for Democrats is significantly more than the GOP’s margin of victory during the 2010 Republican wave election (6.6 percent) and even more that the Democratic margin of victory during the 2006 wave (7.9 percent) — when Democrats were bolstered by both an unpopular Republican president and a failing war in Iraq. And yet, if Democrats succeed in maintaining this substantial lead through next year’s congressional election, they will likely emerge with a tiny majority of just 5 seats.

Last January, the Republican Party published a triumphant report bragging that “Republicans enjoy a 33-seat margin in the U.S. House seated yesterday in the 113th Congress, having endured Democratic successes atop the ticket and over one million more votes cast for Democratic House candidates than Republicans.” The report touts the role GOP gerrymandering played in enabling Republicans to keep the House despite losing the popular vote, citing states like Michigan, where “Michiganders cast over 240,000 more votes for Democratic congressional candidates than Republicans, but still elected a 9-5 Republican delegation to Congress.”

Indeed, Republican gerrymandering was so successful during the last redistricting cycle that Democrats would likely need to win the national popular vote by more than 7 points in order to win the barest of majorities in the House. In 2012, gerrymandering enabled 215 House Republicans to win their elections by at least 8 points or more — only 218 seats are needed to control a majority of the House.

Thus, assuming Democratic gains are evenly distributed nationwide, even if Democrats won the 8 point landslide predicted by the Quinnipiac poll they would control the House by only a narrow 220-215 margin. If this poll is off by just one point, and Democrats win by only 7 points, Republicans will retain control of the House by a single seat.

Tags gerrymandering, polls, Republicans

Michelle Obama Politics

Michelle Obama For Senate? She Leads Republican Senator By Double Digits

Post author By Ezra Grant
Post date December 5, 2012
No Comments on Michelle Obama For Senate? She Leads Republican Senator By Double Digits

A brand new poll from Public Policy Polling found that if Michelle Obama decided she wanted to follow the Hillary Clinton route once her husband leaves office in 2016 and go to the Senate, she’d have the upper hand on Mark Kirk. She leads him 51/40 in a hypothetical head to head.

Kirk’s approval numbers are ok with 34% of voters approving of him to 19% who disapprove. But those numbers are no match for the first lady, who’s seen positively by 60% of voters to 33% with a negative one.

– President Obama’s home state approval rating is 57% with 41% of voters disapproving – those are solid numbers but he can’t match Michelle’s popularity.

Tags for senate, polls

Politics

The Obama Resurge Starts Now

Post author By Robert I. Grundfest
Post date October 18, 2012
1 Comment on The Obama Resurge Starts Now

Ignore the national polls from now on. Ignore them. Even the Gallup poll that has Mitt leading by 7 points. You heard me. The only real action is in the swing states that will decide this election.

There were some very good polls for the president over the past two days, and you need to keep one thing in mind when you read them: they were mostly taken before Tuesday’s debate. The Romney Bounce, which ended last week according to this sage, has given way to the Obama Resurge, which should improve after his debate performance.

Evidence?

Virginia
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania

And with the president holding a lead in Ohio, he’s now ahead in enough states to claim an electoral victory. As I have said before, this will be a very close election down to November 6 and Mitt Romney will need an event or a stellar run of ads and circumstances in order to win.

The final debate on Monday is on foreign affairs, and let’s face facts; foreign affairs ain’t where it’s at this election. It won’t matter how many times Mitt mentions Benghazi or Tripoli or Bibi, fewer people will be watching, and fewer still will know a lot about what he’s talking about. Obama can pretty much stick with “Osama bin Laden is dead” for about 85 minutes, then give a closing that mentions the 47% and GM being rescued.

OK, it won’t be that easy, but I think the debate danger is past, unless Mitt decides that he wants to get aggressive, but since that didn’t work out well on Tuesday, I don’t think he’ll try it.

We’ve come to the frenetic last weeks of a campaign that’s gone on far too long, but this what political junkies like us live for, so get your comfy sneakers on and line up your binders full of women for the stretch run. And stop looking at that Gallup poll. Yes, I’m talking to you.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest

Tags leading, Obama, polls, Romney

Politics

Polling and the Debate

The pace of polling has slowed down since last week, but the overall trend is still towards Barack Obama in the swing states. His national numbers are somewhat closer, but Gallup (RV poll) still has him up six and Rasmussen has him leading by one, which is down two points from Monday. New Quinnipiac and CNN polls have Obama ahead by four and three, respectively, and the Washington Times has him up nine.

There has been a great deal of debate in the polling world, that has spilled over into the general population, about poll methodologies and whether the national polling firms are oversampling Democrats to arrive at their numbers. My view is that the polling firms are seeing a shift in the number of people who are identifying themselves as Democrats and are adjusting their findings based on that shift and the overall demographics of the polls they’re taking. It would be counterproductive to say that a pollster such as NBC/WSJ is cooking the numbers because NBC is part of the equation. By that measure, the Washington Times should have Romney ahead since they are a conservative publication, but they have a D-37 R-34 I-29 split while showing Obama with a 50-41% lead. Is the Washington Times in the tank for the president? Scott Rasmussen? The Wall Street Journal (whose pollster was aligned with the Bush Administration)? I would think not. I can certainly understand why some would question a sample that has a D+9 spread, but I would be loathe to assign a diabolical plot to such a poll.

The other clue about the accuracy of the released polls is how the campaigns are acting. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are not smiling easily or walking with the swagger of frontrunners. They are fighting hard for the swing states they need to win and are assiduously making their case for election. President Obama is likewise running thousands of ads in Colorado, Ohio and Florida and fighting for every vote. Neither side is ahead by a substantial margin at this point. The polls will change, but it would be irresponsible to say that they’re accurate only if the candidate you support is leading.

Where does that leave us with the first debate directly ahead? Can debates change people’s minds? Yes, they can. But they seldom do. With Mitt Romney behind in the swing state polls, he needs to have a solid performance against a president who is not as effective a debater as many people think. Romney’s had more recent experience because of the GOP primary debates while Obama has been making speeches, which he’s good at, but he can become wordy and pedantic with some of his answers. In the end, Romney has to convey a narrative that leads voters to believe that the country needs a change in leadership. Obama will need to more forcefully defend his policies and remind voters of the state of the country when he took office. Will likeability also play a role? You bet. And we all have to be on gaffe watch duty in case it provides a turning point.

Enjoy the show.

Tags debate, polling, polls