Tag: polls

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Politics

Polling Report Double Issue Centerfold: Presidential Race and Super Tuesday Edition

Fans of the blog already know that on the 6th of every month I take a look at the polling for the 2012 presidential election. This month is like Christmas and Hanukkah falling on the same day because today is also Super Tuesday, so I’ve combined the two into one mega look at the race. No, it doesn’t get any better than this.

Obama Job Approval

February was a “what goes around comes around” month. President Obama saw a steady rise in his approval ratings through mid-February, due in large part to the improving economy and the viciousness of the GOP primaries. For the last 10 days, though, he’s come back to earth a bit.  The latest RealClearPolitics Index of his job approval is here. His approval rose from 46.6% to 48.1% and his disapproval numbers also rose slightly from 47.6% to 48%. There seem to be two outliers in the Index: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking, which at one time had Obama +4, now has him at -9, and the Politico/GWU Battleground, which has him +8. Take those two out and smooth the remaining numbers and you have a net plus for the president since February 6.

I suppose you could read the numbers two ways. In one interpretation, he is steadily climbing as he campaigns and runs ads, while in the other he’s in trouble because after 3 years, he still can’t claim a majority of the voters as approving of his performance. Allan Lichtman was sure about Obama’s reelection as far back as two years ago. We’ll see if he’s right about that.

Head-To-Head Match-Ups

My assumption is that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he’s really their only hope. With that in mind, here are the latest numbers in that match-up showing Obama with an overall 49.1%-44.4% lead. This is an improvement over February when his lead was 2%.

The Ballots

The only change in the Electoral College map is that Wisconsin has moved into Obama’s column because of his +10 lead in the latest PPP poll, giving him a lead in states that add up to 227 electoral votes with the Republican at 181. Electionprojection.com has Obama winning 285 electoral votes this year according to their model. We’ll follow them throughout the campaign.

The latest NBC News/Marist poll has Obama beating Romney in both Virginia (+17) and Ohio (+12). If these numbers hold, there are very few scenarios for a Romney victory. If Obama wins Ohio, the assumption is that he’ll win Pennsylvania. Even if Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, that’s not enough. At this point, I would say that NBC’s numbers are a bit optimistic for the Obama campaign. Stay tuned.

Republicans now lead the Generic Congressional Ballot by. 0.2%, but that was before Olympia Snowe announced her retirement from the Senate. The Congressional numbers will fluctuate throughout the spring. When we get definite candidates for each race, it should come into sharper focus.

Super Tuesday

No matter how you slice it, this was a terrible week for the Republican candidates, the party and its message. The fallout from Michigan showed that Mitt Romney’s popularity took a hit. From the article:

The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll gives him a favorability of 33% and an unfavorability of 46%; a recent Politico poll puts his unfavorability above 50%.

Then of course there was the distraction of Rush Limbaugh’s remarks about Sandra Fluke, the ongoing debate about the contraception issue, which lost a Senate vote, Olympia Snowe’s retirement announcement, and the advancement of marriage equality bills in Maryland and Washington. This allowed President Obama to take the high road and appear presidential, which is the last thing the Republicans looked like.

So let’s get to the skinny.

It’s all come down to the delegate count now as Mitt tries to push his way to the magic number of 1,145. He’ll pick up a bundle on Tuesday and will separate himself from the field. I have a suspicion that if he does very well (defined below), GOP operatives will ask Santorum and Gingrich to step aside for the good of the party. Since neither one knows what that is, they might stay in the race.

Here’s a link to the states holding elections and the delegates at stake. Here’s my take on what will happen:

Gingrich wins Georgia. No surprise, doesn’t matter. Extra good day if he also wins Oklahoma and/or Tennessee.

Paul wins Alaska and Idaho.

Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee (barely). If he doesn’t, goodbye.

Romney wins Virginia (the other two aren’t on the ballot, and neither is Rick Perry), Massachusetts, and Vermont. If he can pick off any of Alaska, Idaho or North Dakota, a good night. Tennessee or Oklahoma, a great night. Ohio, a super night. All of the above, lights out.

Which brings us to Ohio. This is the key to today. If Santorum wins, he can damage Romney even more and claim that, since he’ll win Pennsylvania, he should be the nominee (he won’t be). A Romney win ends the game.

Prediction:

Romney            38%

Santorum          35%

Gingrich            15%

Paul                  10%

Romney wins it sooner rather than later. GOP elites breathe easier. You can follow me at:

www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Categories
Politics presidential Republican

Poll Shows High Disapproval for Republican Presidential Candidates

As far as I’m concerned, these Republican primaries could go on till December. By then, President Obama would have already won the November elections and public opinion of the GOP would continue to erode.

But seeing that my wish for a December Republican primary debate is highly unlikely, I’ll settle for poll results like this:

Four in 10 of all adults say the GOP nominating process has given them a less favorable impression of the Republican Party, versus just slightly more than one in 10 with a more favorable opinion.

Additionally, when asked to describe the GOP nominating battle in a word or phrase, nearly 70 percent of respondents – including six in 10 independents and even more than half of Republicans –answered with a negative comment.

Some examples of these negative comments from Republicans: “Unenthusiastic,” “discouraged,” “lesser of two evils,” “painful,” “disappointed,” “poor choices,” “concerned,” “underwhelmed,” “uninspiring” and “depressed.”

And perhaps most significantly, the GOP primary process has taken a toll on the Republican presidential candidates, including front-runner Mitt Romney, who is seen more unfavorably and whose standing with independents remains underwater.

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Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney Mopping Up The Santorum In Michigan

New Polling suggests that Rick Santorum’s flavor is beginning to fade. And that is to be expected. You cannot run around the country talking nonsense and trying to take away women’s rights, and expect sensible Americans to keep buying into your stuff. Rick is beginning to see that insanity – the only qualification for today’s Republicans candidates – is a huge turn off for the rest of the public.

CNN) — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has erased a 10-point deficit against rival Rick Santorum among registered Republicans in the race for the GOP nomination, according to a new Gallup poll released Monday on the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primaries.

In the new Gallup tracking poll, 31% of respondents said they would support Romney and 26% said they favored Santorum, reversing a 36% to 26% advantage for the former Pennsylvania senator last week.

But another nationwide poll released Monday — addressing likely GOP voters nationwide — suggests the candidates are just about evenly split between presidential Santorum and Romney.

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Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

As The Santorum Runs in Michigan, Romney Stays Afloat

Michigan has become a must win for Mitt Romney. He was born there (although we haven’t seen his birth certificate) and his family has strong ties to the state. His father George Romney, even held office there when Mittens was a young millionaire. But over the last few weeks, polls have suggested that the state is becoming a headache for Mittens, as Rick Santorum is really running (for lack of a better word) through the state and Romney’s own words in 2008 and a few weeks ago, to let Detroit go bankrupt.

But Mittens is slowly gaining hold once again in the state. Public Policy Polling (PPP) puts it this way: “The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.”

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Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics

The Gingrich That Stole South Carolina Is Now Leading In Florida

Mitt Romney has to be questioning himself and his position in this Republican party, as new polls show a sudden love for the once disgraced and despised Newt Gingrich.

Gingrich, a man with a political record comparable to that of the common criminal (really… the average person would be sitting in jail if they did the same things Gingrich did), won the Republican vote in South Carolina, and now has the lead in Florida.

The InsiderAdvantage poll of of 557 registered Republican voters is one of the first polls taken in Florida in the aftermath of Gingrich’s double-digit win in the South Carolina primary Saturday.

The poll results follow:

Gingrich: 34%

Romney: 26%

Paul: 13%

Santorum: 11%

Other: 2%

No opinion: 14%

The InsiderAdvantage poll was the first major poll last week to show the significant surge for Gingrich in South Carolina.

Categories
Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics

The Search For The Biggest Flip Flopper – Gingrich Challenges Romney To A Debate

“I’ll tell you what,” Newt Gingrich said when responding to a question posed at an NBC interview,  “if he wants to test the heat, I’ll meet him anywhere in Iowa next week, one-on-one, 90 minutes no moderator, just a timekeeper. He wants to try out the kitchen? I’ll debate him anywhere. We’ll bring his ads, and he can defend [them].”

The question Gingrich was responding to, was in reference to a previous statement made by Mitt Romney, that suggested Gingrich couldn’t stand the “heat” of negative ads. Romney told NBC’s Chuck Todd, “If you can’t handle the heat in this little kitchen, the heat that’s going to come from Obama’s Hell’s Kitchen is going to be a heck of a lot hotter.”

Gingrich continued;

“And we can bring the Washington Post indication that his ad is filled with lies and he can defend it. So let’s test this kitchen. I’m happy [to]. I’ll go in this kitchen. Go back and ask Gov. Romney, would he like to come and play in the kitchen? I don’t think so. I don’t think he wants to do anything except hide over here and pretend it’s not his fault that he is flooding the people of Iowa with falsehoods.

“That’s his money and his staff. And it’s his responsibility. I can take the heat plenty well. There were 121,000 ads run against me in 1995 and 1996. I went through two government shutdowns. I actually stuck to my word. I opposed Republican tax increases in 1982 and 1980. I think I’ll do just fine with the heat from Barack Obama because frankly, it’ll be a fair exchange. He’ll get a fair amount of heat in the process.”

Like the others before him who once led the group of Republican misfits charge up the hill to become president of the United States, Newt Gingrich has fallen by the wayside. Recent polls now have him in third position behind Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

Categories
Domestic Policies Politics presidential

The Polling Report: December 6, 2011

This article was originally posted on my blog: www.anjfarmer.blogspot .com. If you like it, please visit and read more of my posts.

Since our last episode, on November 6, one year before the national elections, much has changed in the race for president. We are currently in the middle (end? beginning?) of the Gingrich ascendancy, and there is some evidence (from this CBS News poll) that Newt could pull off a stunning comeback win in Iowa, which would put him in terrific position for New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada later in January. So with that appetizing thought in our heads, let’s move on to the main meal.

Obama Job Approval

The latest RealClearPolitics Index of Obama’s job approval is here. Since last month, Obama’s approval has dropped from 45.3% to 43.8% and his disapproval has risen slightly, from 50.7% in November to 50.8% today. A look at the main 3-day averages that RCP uses, Gallup and Rasmussen, shows almost no change in Obama’s improvement. Further, this article puts Obama’s approval lower than Jimmy Carter’s at the same stage in their presidencies. Clearly, this is not good news for the President’s supporters.

Head-To-Head Match-ups

These number tell a much different story. While more Americans disapprove of the job the president is doing, they favor him over every other prospective Republican nominee.

He’s also slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the swing state of Florida, but only by 1 point.

The Republican Field

It’s the Newt show at this point, and that’s a very recent phenomenon, coming on the heels of, and in some ways caused by, the implosion of Herman Cain’s campaign. The numbers are stark and solid, but the real question is, how long will they last?

Perhaps more troubling for Mitt Romney’s campaign are these results from pollsandvotes.com showing Romney’s support actually dropping in the first four states to hold votes next month. If Mitt doesn’t watch out, he might be in a position where a less-than-solid win in New Hampshire could be seen as a failure or a “he’s supposed to win” moment that doesn’t pay off in the long run.

My sense is that Romney will win most of the January states simply because, at this point, Gingrich doesn’t have a presence in these states that would allow him to conduct the retail politics necessary to corral votes. It’s even more uphill for Newt in Iowa, where getting your people to the caucuses is the main concern.  Still, he does have money and is beginning to air TV ads that will reach far more people than getting out and shaking hands.

But Romney also has to be concerned. Conservatives will show up in droves this year, and he could find himself third, behind Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. That would be quite a fall. Romney didn’t think he would have to fight hard for Iowa since he’s been in the state for the past two years, but that’s changed now.

The Ballots

The Electoral College map hasn’t budged since November.

And neither has the Generic Congressional Ballot, which shows Democrats leading Republicans by 1.2%

Although it’s very early in the campaign, Obama’s strategists have mapped out his electoral college strategy, and it looks something like this:

First, the president is aiming to win all the states John Kerry won in 2004. That would bring him to 246 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania’s mother lode of 20. Add New Mexico, which the president won in 2008, and that’s five more electoral votes. Now he’s at 251.

Then it gets hard. The final 19 electoral votes would come through a process of mix and match.

North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona are in the mix, with each showing both promise and peril for Obama’s reelection chances.

That’s it for now. Before I push-off for the holidays (I’ll post another polling report on January 3 for Iowa), let me suggest some gifts for the political junkie in your household. Or in your shoes.

From Amazon, if you’re one of those people who still reads (how 2009!)

Obama curios

Gag gifts.

The best free gift!

Cheers.

Categories
Politics Republican Rick Scott

Florida’s Rick Scott – The Most Unpopular Governor In America

Governor Rick Scott of Florida. Remember him? The Republican governor who rode into the state on his white Teaparty horse in November 2010, promising to create jobs and providing every household with an unlimited supply of manna from above? Remember him? Well it seems that Floridians have had enough of the far-right ideology that Scott promotes, and plus, the manna was too dry!

In a new PPP poll, Scott’s already low approval ratings fell even further. And according to the PPP, it is not Democrats or Independents causing the sinking feeling in Scott’s Florida – no, it is his fellow Republicans abandoning ship!

PPP Poll found;

Rick Scott has hit a new low in PPP’s Florida polling with only 26% of voters now approving of his job performance to 58% who disapprove. His previous worst numbers had come in June when he had a 33% approval rating with 59% unhappy with his performance. Scott’s numbers with Democrats are pretty much unchanged compared to then and his standing with independents has gotten a little better.  What’s really caused the bottom to drop out for him is that even Republicans are starting to really sour on his leadership. In June Scott had a 63/30 approval spread with them. That’s now dropped all the way down to 46/31.

Scott is the most unpopular Governor in the country in PPP’s polling.

Buyers remorse indeed!

Categories
CNN Politics

Multiple Polls Say – Raise Taxes Before Spending Cuts

Two polls, conducted on the same day showed the same thing – Americans, by a margin of 2 to 1, prefer raising taxes to address the deficit instead of spending cuts alone. The Gallop poll, conducted on 8/10/2011, shows 66% supports raising taxes, while 33% prefers spending cuts, and the CNN poll conducted on the same day mirrors the Gallop results, with 63% for more taxes, and 36% for more spending cuts.

Another poll conducted a day before on 8/9/2011 by another polling agency called McClatchy/Marist, showed the same results. In that poll, 68% of Americans think raising taxes is the way to go, as opposed to the 29% who want more spending cuts.

If you think there’s a pattern here, there is. Over 23 different polls dating back to December 12th, 2010 found the same thing – Americans prefer raising taxes to combat the deficit problem over cutting spending to programs that help people.

See the full table here.

 

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