Tag: polling report

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Politics Republican

Polling Report: Special Missibama Muslim Edition

Just when I was going to recognize the modern south and how much attitudes have changed, along comes the story that Republicans in both Alabama (45%) and Mississippi (52%) believe that President Obama is a Muslim.

I try to be nice. I try to keep my focus on politics and public policy. I try to be fair. But really, what can you say about such blatant ignorance, fear and outright hatred? And these Republicans are going to go to the polls tomorrow to have a say in who’s going to run against the president in the fall.

The latest numbers in Mississippi are here. Gingrich is in front by a hair and I expect him to eke out a victory. Alabama’s numbers are here. For the moment, Romney has a slim lead and I think he’ll win.

To the predictions:

First, the state where the majority of GOPers believe Obama to be a Muslim

Gingrich          33%

Romney          32%

Santorum        29%

Paul                 6%

For their slightly less anti-truth neighbors

Romney          32%

Gingrich          31%

Santorum        30%

Paul                 6%

These southern states will vote GOP in the fall, so I don’t see that there’s much fuss about which candidate is more conservative than the others. If Romney wins both states then he can claim a mandate and I would think Gingrich would drop out. If Santorum wins both, he can claim two major victories and renewed strength. Romney will ultimately be the nominee, but a Rick for VP movement is a distinct possibility.

I hope the news outlets let us know who gets the Muslim vote.

Categories
Politics

Polling Report Double Issue Centerfold: Presidential Race and Super Tuesday Edition

Fans of the blog already know that on the 6th of every month I take a look at the polling for the 2012 presidential election. This month is like Christmas and Hanukkah falling on the same day because today is also Super Tuesday, so I’ve combined the two into one mega look at the race. No, it doesn’t get any better than this.

Obama Job Approval

February was a “what goes around comes around” month. President Obama saw a steady rise in his approval ratings through mid-February, due in large part to the improving economy and the viciousness of the GOP primaries. For the last 10 days, though, he’s come back to earth a bit.  The latest RealClearPolitics Index of his job approval is here. His approval rose from 46.6% to 48.1% and his disapproval numbers also rose slightly from 47.6% to 48%. There seem to be two outliers in the Index: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking, which at one time had Obama +4, now has him at -9, and the Politico/GWU Battleground, which has him +8. Take those two out and smooth the remaining numbers and you have a net plus for the president since February 6.

I suppose you could read the numbers two ways. In one interpretation, he is steadily climbing as he campaigns and runs ads, while in the other he’s in trouble because after 3 years, he still can’t claim a majority of the voters as approving of his performance. Allan Lichtman was sure about Obama’s reelection as far back as two years ago. We’ll see if he’s right about that.

Head-To-Head Match-Ups

My assumption is that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he’s really their only hope. With that in mind, here are the latest numbers in that match-up showing Obama with an overall 49.1%-44.4% lead. This is an improvement over February when his lead was 2%.

The Ballots

The only change in the Electoral College map is that Wisconsin has moved into Obama’s column because of his +10 lead in the latest PPP poll, giving him a lead in states that add up to 227 electoral votes with the Republican at 181. Electionprojection.com has Obama winning 285 electoral votes this year according to their model. We’ll follow them throughout the campaign.

The latest NBC News/Marist poll has Obama beating Romney in both Virginia (+17) and Ohio (+12). If these numbers hold, there are very few scenarios for a Romney victory. If Obama wins Ohio, the assumption is that he’ll win Pennsylvania. Even if Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, that’s not enough. At this point, I would say that NBC’s numbers are a bit optimistic for the Obama campaign. Stay tuned.

Republicans now lead the Generic Congressional Ballot by. 0.2%, but that was before Olympia Snowe announced her retirement from the Senate. The Congressional numbers will fluctuate throughout the spring. When we get definite candidates for each race, it should come into sharper focus.

Super Tuesday

No matter how you slice it, this was a terrible week for the Republican candidates, the party and its message. The fallout from Michigan showed that Mitt Romney’s popularity took a hit. From the article:

The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll gives him a favorability of 33% and an unfavorability of 46%; a recent Politico poll puts his unfavorability above 50%.

Then of course there was the distraction of Rush Limbaugh’s remarks about Sandra Fluke, the ongoing debate about the contraception issue, which lost a Senate vote, Olympia Snowe’s retirement announcement, and the advancement of marriage equality bills in Maryland and Washington. This allowed President Obama to take the high road and appear presidential, which is the last thing the Republicans looked like.

So let’s get to the skinny.

It’s all come down to the delegate count now as Mitt tries to push his way to the magic number of 1,145. He’ll pick up a bundle on Tuesday and will separate himself from the field. I have a suspicion that if he does very well (defined below), GOP operatives will ask Santorum and Gingrich to step aside for the good of the party. Since neither one knows what that is, they might stay in the race.

Here’s a link to the states holding elections and the delegates at stake. Here’s my take on what will happen:

Gingrich wins Georgia. No surprise, doesn’t matter. Extra good day if he also wins Oklahoma and/or Tennessee.

Paul wins Alaska and Idaho.

Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee (barely). If he doesn’t, goodbye.

Romney wins Virginia (the other two aren’t on the ballot, and neither is Rick Perry), Massachusetts, and Vermont. If he can pick off any of Alaska, Idaho or North Dakota, a good night. Tennessee or Oklahoma, a great night. Ohio, a super night. All of the above, lights out.

Which brings us to Ohio. This is the key to today. If Santorum wins, he can damage Romney even more and claim that, since he’ll win Pennsylvania, he should be the nominee (he won’t be). A Romney win ends the game.

Prediction:

Romney            38%

Santorum          35%

Gingrich            15%

Paul                  10%

Romney wins it sooner rather than later. GOP elites breathe easier. You can follow me at:

www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Categories
Arizona Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Polling Report: Special Michigan and Arizona Edition

This week’s report begins with a question:

What would you call a candidate who LOST the following primaries: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Texas, New York, Massachusetts, California, Florida and Michigan?

How about, Mr. President.

That’s right. Candidate Barack Obama lost every one of those primaries, and more, in 2008 yet won the nomination. That’s why I’m not getting agitated over the latest results of the Republican race. As I’ve said over and over and over and over, Mitt Romney will be the GOP’s nominee in 2012 even if he loses some big states. Granted, Michigan is different for Mitt; he’s claiming pseudo-residency in the state and has set it up as a make-or-break contest. Obama at least won his home state, Illinois, so the comparison isn’t perfect. But still, the national media’s focus on whether Rick Santorum can win the nomination is a moot point. He can’t, and he won’t. To further muddy the picture, though, I will say that if he does manage to win it, the GOP will have committed hari-kiri.

The past three weeks have seen some extraordinary developments in the Republican Presidential Primaries. Rick Santorum caught fire (and brimstone) as the new, and probably final, conservative darling in the race. Romney made a few gaffes that have certainly hurt him, playing to a near-empty Ford’s Field and citing his wife’s two Cadillacs to name the main ones. What does it all add up to? A contested race that will probably drag on into the spring and even give Newt a chance to win his home state of Georgia.

On to the predictions.

First, in Arizona, the latest polls show that Mitt will win rather handily mainly because Santorum and Gingrich have pretty much conceded him the state. Arizona has a large Mormon population that will easily beat back the large Tea Party contingent at the polls (assuming that the Partiers can rush back from guarding the Mexican border in time to cast votes). Still, I think that Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote to make it convincing. Thusly:

Romney          43%

Santorum        30%

Gingrich          18%

Paul                 8%

In Michigan, things get complicated. In my view, Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote AND win by 10+ points to make a convincing statement. The polls aren’t showing that, but if enough voters decide at the last-minute that Santorum would be a sure loser in November, it could happen. I don’t see it.

What is more likely to happen is that Mitt wins, but by 3 points or fewer and gets below 40%. In that case, Santorum can claim a win-by-losing argument because Romney keeps saying that this is one of his home states (even though most voters don’t see the connection). The conservatives will have made their point and Santorum can then move on to Ohio and perhaps win that primary. He can also assume he’ll win Pennsylvania, which would greatly complicate Mitt’s message about electability.

Prediction:

Romney       39%

Santorum     37%

Paul             12%

Gingrich       10%

The race moves on to Super Tuesday. The national press will continue to talk about a brokered convention, which will not happen.  Romney will eventually be the nominee. Or have I said that already.

For more, please visit  www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest 

Categories
Elections Newt Gingrich Politics South Carolina

Polling Report: Special South Carolina Edition

What a week this has been for the GOP Pack o’ Presidential Potentials. We started out with Mitt Romney strolling leisurely toward the nomination with a big lead, and today finds the contenders in an absolute dogfight (but will the dog hunt?).

Newt Gingrich’s well-received performance in this week’s debates has given him a new life. Rick Santorum can now claim to have won the Iowa caucuses. Rick Perry is now free to take Texas out of the union if he so desires. And Romney? He’s hit a bit of a rough patch on the way to the nomination, which I still think he’ll win. It just might take a bit longer for him to claim it.

The latest RealClearPolitics polling average, including the latest PPP tracking poll, has Newt surging to the top of the pile, which spells real trouble for Romney. Paul will win his 15%, and despite an endorsement from many conservatives, Rick Santorum will be lucky to approach 15%, as some of his voters move to Newt. With Rick Perry out of the race, the real question is where do his supporters go. Again, I’m thinking Newt.

South Carolina is now critical for Romney. I said after New Hampshire that he could end the whole race with a showing above 40% and could claim inevitability with more than 30% in SC. Now, that’s not necessarily the case. Mitt could get 30% and lose to Gingrich, or only win by 1 or 2 points. That would be a win, but he needs to improve, not regress. If he loses, or loses steam, Florida would be in play. Santorum could drop out, with his voters moving in larger numbers to Newt. Conservatives would be emboldened. Democrats would jump for joy.

My predictions: An Upset Special

Gingrich        36%

Romney        34%

Paul              15%

Santorum      14%

Santorum drops out. The race in Florida tightens. Gingrich and Romney duke it out through Super Tuesday in March. More GOP moderates publicly endorse Romney in order to save the party. Chris Christie gets even more bombastic in his support for Mitt (is that possible? healthy?). You join in here at ezkool, at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and follow me on Twitter @rigrundfest.

Isn’t this fun?

Categories
Elections Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

The Polling Report: Special New Hampshire Edition

You can just call me the Hammer, because I nailed the Iowa results almost perfectly. Of course now I will suffer for my obvious act of hubris, but I don’t believe that will come in New Hampshire.

This primary has an odd air about it because the overwhelming sentiment is that Mitt Romney will win, but it won’t matter much. The fun will come later in the month in South Carolina and Florida.

So let’s get to the polling and analysis. The latest RealClearPolitics average shows Romney with a large lead over, in this order, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. Here are the specifics from the latest PPP Poll. Santorum has not received a major bounce out of Iowa because he’s far too conservative for New Hampshire and he’s professed some ideas that haven’t sat well with pragmatic New Englanders, like his diatribes against gay marriage. He’s also, well, Rick Santorum, who has some well-publicized issues stemming from when he was a Pennsylvania Senator and those came to light once the press started snooping around.

Ron Paul has his reliable legions who will support him throughout the primary season, so it’s no surprise that he’s in second place. This primary is make-or-break for Jon Hunstman, and I expect that he’ll drop out of the race when he finishes a distant third. Newt will stay in through at least Florida as a pain-in-the-side for Romney now that he’s received a huge infusion of money, and Rick Perry will also drop out after South Carolina when he finishes fourth in a conservative state he otherwise could win. If he wasn’t such a terrible debater, that is.

The only drama I see in New Hampshire is Mitt’s vote percentage. He must, in my estimation, receive above 40% of the vote in New Hampshire in order to meet expectations. If he falls below that threshold, it will be a major embarrassment for him and it will expose him as the second choice to everyone else in the field. It won’t really matter what the other candidates poll. The pressure is on Mitt. If he gets above 47%, then he shows obvious strength with the people who will decide the 2012 race, moderates and independent voters, and will be seen as the presumptive nominee. Having said that, the latest polls show Mitt actually losing some support according to the tracking polls. He began the weekend at around 42%, but has dropped to 33% in the Suffolk/7News Tracking survey released on Monday.

At this point in the race, we need to face some facts: Santorum, Gingrich and Perry are damaged goods and are just saying the most outlandish things in a last-ditch effort to appeal to the far right. Paul isn’t even popular with Republicans, for heaven’s sake, Huntsman never received his bump (and he won’t in South Carolina) and is seen as the other Mormon in the race. That’s America: two, three or four Protestants of any denomination, no problem, but room for only one Mormon.

Leaders of the conservative movement have recently been stepping up their efforts to find an alternative to Mitt, and it looks like the early winner is Santorum. I think they should find a true conservative who’s not in the race, vet them for all of their transgressions and run them as a candidate outside the primaries. That’s their best chance at having a conservative who can be elected. I’ve always thought that there would be a third party candidate in this election and that they would come from the right. This might be the time to start that movement.

The last big issue is the Super-PAC money entering this race from all sides. It’s enabling the field, minus Huntsman, to buy ads in South Carolina that will probably blanket the state for the next two weeks. Most of it will be aimed at Romney, and I’m sure we’ll hear more about how he likes to fire people and how many employees lost their jobs because of Bain Capital.

And now for the stick-out-my-neck-for-the-guillotine moment: Prediction for Tuesday.

Romney 38% Paul 19% Huntsman 16% Gingrich 11% Santorum 10% Roemer 3% Perry 1%

Mitt gets enough to claim a win, but falls short of the 40% threshold. Huntsman leaves the race gracefully, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry move on to the south to make their final stands. Perry leaves after South Carolina and perhaps Santorum does too. Newt stays around because he loves to hear himself talk.

Mother Jones has a Fantasy Primary Predictor here if you’d like to play.

For more, please visit: facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

Categories
Iowa Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics Rick Santorum

Presidential Polling Report: Special Iowa Edition

And you thought the holidays were over. Having the Iowa caucuses so soon after the new year is a great gift for political junkies and opens what should be an expensive, long, important and uniquely-American national election season. That Iowa and New Hampshire take all of the attention so early is an unfortunate quirk of the system and will provide us with untimely candidate exits and lots of wasted money.

If you’re new to the process, or just can’t believe this is how we elect our president, here’s how the Iowa caucuses work.

And now onto the analysis and predictions.

The poll that everyone is talking about was released on Saturday: The Des Moines Register’s poll of likely caucus attendees.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.  

Based on the results of this poll, one scenario stands out to me. If Romney wins, it gives him great momentum heading into New Hampshire one week from today. Assuming he wins that, we could see full carnage among the challengers. Bachmann will either drop out of the race or her supporters will go to another conservative candidate, probably Santorum if he comes in second in Iowa. A fifth place finish for Perry would also lead many of his supporters to Santorum. Jon Huntsman will also leave after losing in New Hampshire, with his supporters moving to Romney and perhaps Gingrich. In any event, a conservative will emerge as the main challenger to Romney. That will become the main story through South Carolina and Florida later in January. If it’s Santorum, it will represent one of the great come-from-behinds in a long while.

It’s hard to say that a Santorum win immediately sets him up as Romney’s most viable main challenger. He’ll need to quickly establish a presence in South Carolina and Florida, which takes money and ground game, and he doesn’t seem to have much of either. He can, as can Gingrich or Paul if they place highly in Iowa, bypass New Hampshire or at least pass it off as Romney’s backyard and focus on the states where there are more social conservatives. Gingrich could spend more time in New Hampshire and claim a moral victory. I’m not putting much faith in a Paul victory after Iowa.

The 41% of Iowans who could change their mind are the wild cards in this race. If they decide that Romney is most electable, he’ll win a resounding victory and the race will be all but over. If they stay with one or two of the conservatives, then the race gets more interesting and probably lasts a bit longer. A stronger Gingrich showing than fourth makes him the main competition, but I don’t see it. Mainly because the thought frightens me a bit. Nothing scientific about that.

A PPP poll released on Monday shows

Ron Paul at 20 percent, Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent on a survey for which PPP reports a margin of error for each candidate of +/- 2.7 percent. Running farther back are Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 8 percent, Jon Huntsman at 4 percent and Buddy Roemer at 2 percent. PPP interviewed 1,340 likely Republican caucus goers on December 31 and January 1.

Santorum again seems to be the recipient of a late surge and is the second choice of 14% of respondents, the highest of any of the candidates. His personal approval rating of 60% is twice his disapproval rating. heady stuff for someone who lost their last election.

The rest of the polling can be seen at RealClearPolitics.com

Both NBC and the Rasmussen poll have Romney, Paul and Santorum in that order, which supports the Register poll from the weekend.

And here’s a nice chart from Polls and Votes

My pick for the results are as follows:

Romney 26%

Santorum 24%

Paul 21%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

It’s always more fun when you stick your neck out (like Louis XVI and his lovely wife Marie), so make your prediction in the comments section. Remember that in order to complain about the process, you have to commit to it.

As always, you can follow the action here and at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

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