A Loras College poll released Thursday had the Iowa lawmaker in a statistical dead heat against Patty Judge, his Democratic challenger. Grassley led by only one point, 46-45, against the former lieutenant governor. That nominal advantage was well within the poll’s four-point margin or error.
Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, released a survey earlier last week showing Grassley with a 7-point lead. But even that margin hardly suggests safety for the incumbent.
“When I see a poll like the Loras poll or the [Public Polling Policy] poll, if I’m Grassley that makes me nervous. …That’s trouble,” said David Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University and editor of the academic journal Political Behavior. “I think he’s clearly more vulnerable than he’s been in past elections.”
Democrats and outside groups pounced on the polling.
Judge’s campaign blasted out the Loras College poll, noting Grassley “is consistently polling in the 40s for the first time since his election to the Senate in the 1980s.”
“We’re obviously excited about that poll,” Sam Roecker, Judge’s campaign manager, told The Hill. “This is unprecedented for Chuck Grassley.”
I predict that the global rise in temperature will show a significant decline on Monday as all the hot air bloviators, pollsters, consultants and media talking heads hold their steamy breath as they await the results of the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn’t they? The numbers all say that Donald Trump will win the caucuses over Ted Cruz, with the rest of the GOP field barely in their rear-view mirror.
And then of course there’s Iowa’s importance as a…as a…mid-western, um, evangelical-heavy, um…white, um…state. That really doesn’t represent much about America except that the Republicans there seem to have fallen for Trump’s snake oil and Cruz’s smarmy insincerity.
Which is why I think the results will likely be different from the media narrative that’s been written since the fall. I could be wrong, and if I am I will say so because I live in New Jersey and from the governor on down to us little folk, we New Jerseyans always tell the truth and admit our failures and flip-flops.
For what it’s worth, I have been saying all along that neither Trump nor Cruz will be the GOP nominee because both their personalities and their policy prescriptions will not appeal to a majority of either party voters or the electorate at large. Trump has been inconsistent in his message on the stump and hasn’t really come up with specific fixes for the economy, foreign policy or constitutional issues mainly because he doesn’t have many. Calling people stupid or losers or saying that he can fix things because he’s a businessman doesn’t inspire confidence. Cruz, likewise, is running to head a government that he doesn’t even respect. He says he knows what the constitution means and the original intent of the framers, but my suspicion is that they would laugh him out of the room for being a presidential pretender at best.
Trump and Cruz are likely to be first and second in Iowa, but I don’t believe that either one will crack 30% of the vote and the big surprise will come from Marco Rubio, and one of Bush or Kasich, who will do far (far) better than what they are polling right now. I think they could approach 20% of the vote, which would instantly put them in line to be seen as the moderate/establishment savior for the party, and the de facto person to beat in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s e-mails have reared their ugly heads again and they will have a slight impact on the race, but I think she will still win the caucuses by about 5 percentage points over Bernie Sanders. He’ll likely poll in the high 30s or lower 40s on Monday, and will go into New Hampshire as the favorite to win there, but I don’t think he’ll do that either. Clinton has too much money and more support among minorities for Sanders to mount a national challenge.
After a very long pre-season, it’s time for political junkies everywhere to get their electoral needles ready for the voting binge to come. The fun starts now.
Real estate mogul Donald Trump announces his bid for the presidency in the 2016 presidential race during an event at the Trump Tower on the Fifth Avenue in New York City on June 16, 2015. Trump, one of America's most flamboyant and outspoken billionaires, threw his hat into the race Tuesday for the White House, promising to make America great again. The 69-year-old long-shot candidate ridiculed the country's current crop of politicians and vowed to take on the growing might of China in a speech launching his run for the presidency in 2016. "I am officially running for president of the United States and we are going to make our country great again," he said from a podium bedecked in US flags at Trump Tower on New York's Fifth Avenue. The tycoon strode onto the stage after sailing down an escalator to the strains of "Rockin' In The Free World" by Canadian singer Neil Young after being introduced by daughter Ivanka. His announcement follows years of speculation that the man known to millions as the bouffant-haired host of American reality TV game show "The Apprentice" would one day enter politics. Trump identifies himself as a Republican, and has supported Republican candidates in the past. But in his announcement speech he did not explicitly say if he was running for the party's nomination or as an independent.AFP PHOTO/ KENA BETANCUR (Photo credit should read KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images)
Donald “I’m great, I’m fabulous” Trump was pelted with tomatoes in Iowa during one of his gatherings at the University of Iowa on Wednesday. Trump, in the middle of one of his poll-praising, policy-lacking events quickly realized that some of the people in the crowd were on to his nonsense.
Watch, as protesters introduced the edible berry-like fruit to the Republican presidential candidate.
Iowa Governor Terry Branstad says he still won’t endorse a Republican presidential candidate before the Feb. 1 caucuses. But Tuesday, for the first time, Branstad said he wants Texas Senator Ted Cruz defeated.
“Yes,” Branstad told Channel 13 News Tuesday morning when asked if he wants Cruz, who is currently leading the Iowa polls, to lose.
Branstad made his comments after addressing a room of alternative energy supporters at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit in Altoona.
“I think it would be very damaging to our state,” Iowa’s governor said of a Cruz victory on caucus night.
It is Sunday and another secret Democratic debate will begin hours from now. But if having these secret debates at all weird hours of the night was a tactic by the DNC to favor the better known Hillary Clinton while keeping the lesser known Bernie Sanders away from the masses, then this has been a colossal failure on the DNC.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday showed Sanders with a five-percentage-point lead over Clinton, 49% to 44%.
The latest poll suggests a stark difference from a month ago where Clinton held an 11 percentage point lead over Sanders. Quinnipiac’s survey found that voters in Iowa, where caucuses are held on Feb. 1, see Sanders as more honest and more empathetic than Cliton who, however, is seen by voters as more electable than Sanders in a general election and stronger on foreign policy.
“Iowa may well become Sen. Bernie Sanders’ ‘Field of Dreams,’ Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement. “After three months of Secretary Hillary Clinton holding an average 10-point lead among Iowa Democrats, the playing field has changed.”
If Sanders beats Clinton in Iowa, it would be a surprise given her deep support among Iowa’s Democratic establishment. It would also likely draw comparisons to Clinton’s 2008 presidential run. In the caucuses that year, then-senator Barack Obama beat Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards, largely due to the support of first-time caucus-goers.
A win for Sanders in Iowa would give him a boost headed into New Hampshire’s Feb. 9 primary. Sanders, who represents the neighboring state of Vermont, continues to hold a slight lead in the polls there.
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Sanders leading Clinton in New Hampshire, 53% to 39%.
Bernie Sanders just keep chipping and chipping and chipping away at what seemed to be an almost insurmountable lead for Hillary Clinton in Iowa, and if this new Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, Hillary Clinton should worry.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders wins the support of 49 percent of likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 44 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 4 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of a December 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Clinton at 51 percent, with 40 percent for Sanders.
Today, 3 percent are undecided and only 20 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
There is a yawning gender gap as men back Sanders 61 – 30 percent, with 6 percent for O’Malley, while women back Clinton 55 – 39 percent, with 3 percent for O’Malley.
Sanders also has a big lead on favorability as likely Democratic Caucus participants give him an 87 – 3 percent favorability rating, compared to Clinton’s 74 – 21 percent score.
In this photo taken May 20, 2015, Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., poses for a portrait before an interview with The Associated Press in Washington. For Democrats who had hoped to lure Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren into a presidential campaign, independent Sen. Bernie Sanders might be the next best thing. Sanders, who is opening his official presidential campaign Tuesday in Burlington, Vermont, aims to ignite a grassroots fire among left-leaning Democrats wary of Hillary Rodham Clinton. He is laying out an agenda in step with the party's progressive wing and compatible with Warren's platform _ reining in Wall Street banks, tackling college debt and creating a government-financed infrastructure jobs program. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
What a difference a Republican whipping party makes. Well, the so-called Benghazi hearing contributed to this new love for Hillary, but she has been on this wave of growing support since the last Democratic debate a little over a week ago.
And now this – Hillary Clinton has reclaimed the lead in Iowa from Bernie Sanders and it is a commanding lead. According to Quinnipiac University poll, Hillary Clinton now hold an 11 point lead over Bernie.
The poll of likely Democratic Caucus participants showed Clinton with 51 percent support to Sanders’ 40 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley received 4 percent support. Quinnipiac’s Sept. 10 poll had Sanders leading Clinton 41-40 percent.
“A strong debate performance doesn’t always translate into better poll numbers, but it sure did for Hillary Clinton,” Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. “Clinton had been losing momentum among the key Iowa Caucus participants and last month was tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders, who seemed to have the momentum in Iowa and nationally. But the debate seemed to reverse that trend and once again she is the leader of the pack in Iowa,” he said.
Indeed, the poll found that a majority of those who watched the debate said she had won it.
Donald Trump has been knocked off his pedestal in Iowa, as the crazy talk from Ben Carson is paying him huge benefits in the early voting state.
B
en Carson has knocked Donald Trump from his perch atop the field in Iowa, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa Republicans.
Carson has opened up an 8 percentage point lead over Trump with the help of women and white evangelicals, who overwhelmingly favor the soft-spoken former neurosurgeon over the outspoken billionaire. About 28% of likely caucusgoers said they support Carson, 20% back Trump, 13% support Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and 10% are for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
The survey is the first major poll to find Trump trailing by a significant margin nationally or in the four early states since a CNN national poll taken June 26-28, which showed Trump behind Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 12% to 19%.
A co-worker asked if I had watched the “speech” Sarah Palin delivered in Iowa last week. Of course I didn’t. I try to be as productive as possible and sitting down to watch Sarah Palin ramble on about nothing is counterproductive and a total waste of time!
But he insisted. “I dare you,” he said. “Try to figure out what the mama grizzly was saying and if you can, lunch is on me. Go ahead,” he insisted, “give it a shot.”
I looked at my watch and realized it was almost lunchtime. A free lunch? Just for watching and summarizing a speech by Sarah Palin? I can do this, I thought and I took him up on his challenge.
I couldn’t get past the first 5 minutes of the speech. Needless to say, I ended up buying lunch today.
An Iowa law allowing the legally or completely blind to acquire permits to carry guns in public has stirred up debate as to whether or not the visually impaired should have “full access” to firearms.
“Up until 2011, it was solely up to the sheriff of your county who decided who got a gun permit and who did not,” Cedar County Sheriff Warren Wethington, who has been granting gun permits to the visually impaired since he became sheriff in 2007, told ABCNews.com. “So you were basically at the mercy of whether you had a pro-gun sheriff or an anti-gun sheriff.”
In 2010, Iowa became a “shall-issue” state when the legislature amended a law to create a uniform procedure for issuing gun permits statewide. As a result, Iowa residents could get a gun permit so long as they did not have a criminal background or history of mental illness, Wethington said.
“Once those restrictions were limited, we basically had to approve anybody who applied for a permit,” said Delaware County Sheriff John LeClere. “Our opinion no longer matters and our information on an individual, as far as their character, was something we could no longer consider.”
While applicants need to take a firearm safety course to obtain a permit, it is available online and does not need to include hands-on firearms training, which “makes it a little difficult,” LeClere said.
“If we have a person who is possibly eyesight impaired, he is certainly entitled to defend himself,” he said. “But should he be carrying [a firearm] in public? Should there be further restrictions placed on him based on eyesight?”
“I have some reservations about full access for people who are blind,” said Patrick Clancy, superintendent of the Iowa Braille and Sight Saving School in Vinton, Iowa. “That’s just because shooting requires a lot of vision to be accurate outside of controlled settings with safety courses.”
After being anointed as Mitt Romney’s chosen one for Vice President, Paul Ryan went out today to do a solo act in Iowa. But like you’ll see from the video below, the American people have done their homework on Paul Ryan, and they know all about his proposals to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for the poor, at the same time he’s giving trillions in tax cuts to rich people.
With the Iowa primaries over and Mitt Romney crowned the winner by an apparent technicality, the expectation was that his fellow competitors would use whatever avenue they had available to show why they are more deserving of the Republican nomination. That perfect avenue presented itself last night in yet another Republican debate, but the other five Iowa primary losers on stage were more satisfied with fighting each other, instead of distinguishing themselves from Willard.
The former Massachusetts governor was subject to the first attack of the night but that early fire was quickly overshadowed by testy exchanges between Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.
It’s been more than three weeks since the Republican presidential candidates have been on stage together. The last time they gathered,
Gingrich led in the polls and Michele Bachmann was still in the race.
It was a different scenario at Saturday night’s debate, sponsored by ABC News and Yahoo News.
Romney, who virtually tied Santorum in the Iowa caucuses and holds a double-digit lead in the New Hampshire polls, was expected to be a target.
He wasn’t.
There was one early attack.
Meanwhile, Romney stood idle by with a smile on his face.
How dumb was this strategy to attack each other instead of the leader? After the debate, one of ABC’s political analysis observed that Ron Paul was on the attack – going after Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich – but did not lay one finger on the leader Mitt Willard Romney. This insight led to the conclusion that Paul was like a puppet on a string. “I’m sure if you rip open Paul’s shirt,” he said, “you’ll see one of Mitt’s sons at the control.”
If you are trying to win your party’s nomination, but are too scared to use a debate to point out Romney’s non-existent record, then you have no business running for the most powerful office in the nation.
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