Here’s how it will go down:
GOP
Trump–28%
Kasich–20% (upset special)
Rubio–17%
Bush–13%
Cruz–11%
Christie–8%
Fiorina–2%
Carson–1%
Democrats
Sanders–54%
Clinton–46%
There’s a real possibility that nobody on the GOP side drops out, but I think that Fiorina is the likliest.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
I predict that the global rise in temperature will show a significant decline on Monday as all the hot air bloviators, pollsters, consultants and media talking heads hold their steamy breath as they await the results of the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn’t they? The numbers all say that Donald Trump will win the caucuses over Ted Cruz, with the rest of the GOP field barely in their rear-view mirror.
And then of course there’s Iowa’s importance as a…as a…mid-western, um, evangelical-heavy, um…white, um…state. That really doesn’t represent much about America except that the Republicans there seem to have fallen for Trump’s snake oil and Cruz’s smarmy insincerity.
Which is why I think the results will likely be different from the media narrative that’s been written since the fall. I could be wrong, and if I am I will say so because I live in New Jersey and from the governor on down to us little folk, we New Jerseyans always tell the truth and admit our failures and flip-flops.
For what it’s worth, I have been saying all along that neither Trump nor Cruz will be the GOP nominee because both their personalities and their policy prescriptions will not appeal to a majority of either party voters or the electorate at large. Trump has been inconsistent in his message on the stump and hasn’t really come up with specific fixes for the economy, foreign policy or constitutional issues mainly because he doesn’t have many. Calling people stupid or losers or saying that he can fix things because he’s a businessman doesn’t inspire confidence. Cruz, likewise, is running to head a government that he doesn’t even respect. He says he knows what the constitution means and the original intent of the framers, but my suspicion is that they would laugh him out of the room for being a presidential pretender at best.
Trump and Cruz are likely to be first and second in Iowa, but I don’t believe that either one will crack 30% of the vote and the big surprise will come from Marco Rubio, and one of Bush or Kasich, who will do far (far) better than what they are polling right now. I think they could approach 20% of the vote, which would instantly put them in line to be seen as the moderate/establishment savior for the party, and the de facto person to beat in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s e-mails have reared their ugly heads again and they will have a slight impact on the race, but I think she will still win the caucuses by about 5 percentage points over Bernie Sanders. He’ll likely poll in the high 30s or lower 40s on Monday, and will go into New Hampshire as the favorite to win there, but I don’t think he’ll do that either. Clinton has too much money and more support among minorities for Sanders to mount a national challenge.
After a very long pre-season, it’s time for political junkies everywhere to get their electoral needles ready for the voting binge to come. The fun starts now.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
I think I’ve found a new, potent source of energy; Martin Luther King, Jr. spinning in his grave over the state of race relations in the country and on the presidential election trail. All we need to do is tap into it and we can power our devices for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, it won’t do much for our national soul.
In the 48 years since his untimely and tragic death, King’s legacy has been begged, borrowed and stolen by those who believe they knew his intentions and by those who wanted them buried along with him. From the start, politicians – mostly on the right, including President Reagan and Senator Jesse Helms – opposed even making King’s birthday a national holiday. Arizona had to be threatened with the ultimate penalty of no Super Bowls, before they would accept the day. It’s also become a favorite day for the NBA to schedule afternoon games, but that seems to be the upper limit on MLK Day commercialization, and that’s a good thing. Those of us who are old enough might remember that January was traditionally the month when retailers would run sales on textiles that they labeled “White Sales.”
Can you imagine?
Over the past few years we’ve witnessed terrible incidents where African-American men, women and children were unjustly killed by the police, unnecessarily fined to the brink of bankruptcy by corrupt public officials, and stopped by the police for reasons that white Americans don’t experience. And what is considered good news for African-Americans, that their rates of narcotics deaths is lower, is tragically caused by racism, as this article recounts:
There is a reason that blacks appear to have been spared the worst of the narcotic epidemic, said Dr. Andrew Kolodny, a drug abuse expert. Studies have found that doctors are much more reluctant to prescribe painkillers to minority patients, worrying that they might sell them or become addicted.“The answer is that racial stereotypes are protecting these patients from the addiction epidemic,” said Dr. Kolodny, a senior scientist at the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University and chief medical officer for Phoenix House Foundation, a national drug and alcohol treatment company.
On the campaign trail, the Republicans continue to express their outrage that minorities are not working because white tax money is easily available to them in the form of public assistance and unemployment benefits. Their fealty to Donald Trump’s immigration scheme will doom them with a majority of Hispanic voters and they can’t win the White House with only White Votes. Their opposition to a fair minimum wage, infrastructure projects, labor collective bargaining rights and public schools really doesn’t allow for any middle class group to support them, much less those who have traditionally been marginalized in American society.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is making his move in Iowa and New Hampshire and is now trying to appeal more to African-Americans, a group that Hillary Clinton has always done well with. Both of them have had problems with Black Lives Matter and their relative success could come down to the minority vote in southern states and northern cities. The Democrats cannot take the African-American vote for granted because the party has controlled many cities over the years, yet the schools have not improved, housing has not become more affordable, the minimum wage hasn’t helped and many jobs have fled the country.
Barack Obama’s election will have a lasting effect on this country, even as he is the victim of both overt and subtle racism on the part of many of his opponents. That he has served this country with distinction, morality, forthrightness and a stubborn streak that has forced his opposition to argue against fair treatment of all people, makes him a worthy representative of King’s legacy.
And this is why we need to have a holiday for Martin Luther King. It’s here to remind us that we will never live up to the true meaning of our founding documents as long as we treat people differently under the law, in the workplace and schools, and, most importantly, in our heads and hearts. I would urge you to add to your resolutions to lose weight and make more money, one that includes an action, an attitude change, or a commitment to act in King’s spirit and honor his words.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
First it was Jeb Bush. Now it’s Marco Rubio. For other Republicans, it’s all about Hillary Clinton and Benghazi. Meanwhile, Scott Walker has tripped over his own feet while discussing the world and Chris Christie, who has something to say about everything, has little to say yet on foreign affairs.
Why is this important? Because 2016 is shaping up to be a foreign policy election. Yes, there will be talk about taxing the wealthy, cutting taxes to the wealthy, what to do about entitlements and the middle class, abortion, immigration and health care, but right now, the world seems to be blowing up and countries are looking to the United States to help fix what ails them.
President Obama has wisely not gotten us involved in a foreign adventure despite calls by the hawkish neocon crowd over on the right to send troops to Syria. And Lebanon. And Iraq. And other places. Which sounds like the good-old-fashioned response that George W. Bush followed and that was a terrible mistake. And it all sounds heroic and noble until the body bags start coming back and the soldiers return with severe damage to their bodies and minds.
What 2016 presents for the country is an opportunity to be creative with our foreign policy. The Cold War has been over for more than 20 years, but the mentality remains, this time with China as the Soviets and North Korea as the Cubans. ISIS is a tremendous threat to Middle East stability, but they are alienating other countries in the region, who are showing more of a propensity to fight on their own. We can support our friends, but right now there is little reason for us to get more soldiers involved.
It will be interesting to see where the debate goes from here. Rand Paul has been championing a more isolationist foreign policy as a basic belief. Hillary Clinton certainly has the experience, but she hasn’t enunciated a specific policy yet. Can Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Martin O’Malley and Bernie Sanders come up with credible ideas? Perhaps, but I’ve come to a conclusion that’s even more true now than it was in 2004.
We should have elected John Kerry as president when we had the chance.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
Let me be the first one to issue an apology. I was wrong and I am big enough to admit that. Apparently, there is one smart Republican in Mississippi, I had no idea. And because he is so wise, he has dropped the party of hate and ignorance and has joined the party of Progressives.
Former Republican state Sen. Tim Johnson on Wednesday announced he’s switching parties and challenging incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves this year.
According to the local report, Johnson held a press conference at the state Capitol and reportedly told supporters, “Why join the Democratic Party and run for lieutenant governor? I’ll tell you: We are all Mississippians first. Elected officials should be in the business of helping all Mississippians, not picking out who to hurt.
“The Republican Party leaders’ actions against supporting Medicaid expansion and threatening our local hospitals was the final, deciding factor for me.”
As seen on America The Not So Beautiful
By Mike Caccioppoli
This is a very exciting day at America The Not So Beautiful as Mitt Romney has chosen this blog to formally announce that he will be running for President in 2016. He told me that he hopes the third time is the charm and that he has learned from his past errors. He wants to explain why he is running and point out what he could do better than President Obama if he is elected President of the United States. But I really don’t want to take up any more of his time so ladies and gentlemen here is Governor Mitt Romney!
Thank You Mike. I’m so glad that you allowed me this wonderful venue to announce my candidacy for President of these United States in the year 2016. I agree that America isn’t very beautiful under the leadership of Barack Obama. Now everyone already knows my faults. It’s already been spoken about ad nauseum in past election cycles. The fact that I was fully behind the Vietnam war, even marched in favor of it, but of course I did not serve my county. Instead I went to France, a wonderful country and expressed my love for my beautiful wife Ann. Everyone has seen those photos of myself on the beach in the south of France, where they have this wonderful little film festival called “The Cannes Film Festival”. I wrote in the sand “I Love Ann” with a big heart around it and paid someone 10 grand to photograph it from above. Yes, you have all seen that photo that was taken while our brave soldiers were dying for a great cause in Vietnam.
But we have already debated that photograph and I ask Americans to simply move on please. Just place that in your binders of thoughts and memories and please move on. I realize now that I should have been more discreet and just taken a photo of my young, taut body in a bubble bath. I mean I could have written Ann’s initials in the bubbly soap to show my love and undying affection for her. Yes, that would have sufficed, I understand now.
I know I took a very big hit with those comments at the social club. Where in front of millionaires I said that 47 percent thing. I said that 47 percent of Americans just want hand outs from the government and that Barack Obama would give them that. I have been thinking very much about that comment and I now realize I was wrong. It’s really only 45 percent. How insensitive of me to say that 47 percent are takers when it is really only 45 percent. I have learned from that mistake, and have met the two percent that convinced me they are workers not takers. So yes the number is most definitely 45 percent. I’m sorry that I offended two percent of America that didn’t deserve it. Truly sorry.
People feel, I’m sorry…..felt, that I was out of touch with most ordinary people. One reason I believe is that I only paid 13 percent tax while the middle class often pays 25-35 percent. Even though I believe that I’m still giving away much more money since I’m a multi-millionaire, I understand that it doesn’t look good. Especially since I only pay those taxes when I’m running for President. Otherwise I really don’t pay anything. Anyway I have decided that this is insensitive to the middle class and so I paid 14 percent this year. Believe me that extra one percent adds up to quite a bit of cash since I’m a multi-millionaire. I hope this proves that I’m a friend of the middle class and with that extra money leaving my accounts I do understand the hardships you feel on a daily basis. I really do. This should put aside any more questions or negative ads in regards to my taxes.
Now that I have put all of this silly business behind me I’d like to show you why I could do better than the current Democratic administration if you would so kindly elect me President. I had said in my previous campaign that the economy would be destroyed if Barack Obama was elected for another four years. Since that time gas prices have plummeted while the stock market has soared. Unemployment continues to decline month by month. While jobs are being created every month in the 150-200K range. This is all pretty much the opposite of what I said would happen throughout the campaign and debates. You have all done an admirable job of trying to prove me wrong and I believe I pushed you in that direction through my brilliant psychology that I learned in the best schools since the age of five. I vocalize negative comments and this motives you, it motivates you to do better, the wonderful American people. So, just imagine what we could do together if I were actually President! The possibilities are endless.
My words might have been wrong but my heart was in the right place. Speaking of heart I just need to remind everyone that I do love Ann. I just love Ann.
Some people think I’m running again because I have so much money that I don’t know what to do with it. This couldn’t be further from the truth. I’m running for many honorable reasons but the most honorable is to protect this country from terrorists and to retain our freedoms. Barack Obama didn’t have the money to solely distribute “The Interview” but I do. This would show the terrorists that we are strong and not weak. And unlike the President I have indeed ridden horses bare chested like Vladimir Putin. This shows manliness and strength and power. I have ridden Ann’s ponies bare chested, I love Ann, I do love Ann.
I believe I have made my points. I’m a true protector of the middle class. I now believe in simple bubble bath selfies over wasteful high angle helicopter shots. I think only 45 percent of this great country are takers. I now pay my 14 percent of taxes when I run for President. Yes the economy is incredibly strong but I can make it stronger with my ability to personally distribute any film that is censored or banned because of terrorism. This is the new Mitt Romney. Please vote for me in 2016 to be the next President of the United States.
Oh and before I go……Benghazi!
Mike.Caccioppoli@yahoo.com
@CaccioppoliMike
Visit America The Not So Beautiful
It took about 35 years, but the Republican Party is just where it wants to be. They have a Congressional majority and are flush with the optimism of a political movement that they believe has broad popular support. They are looking forward to perhaps winning the presidency in 2016 and finally being able to implement the agenda that Ronald Reagan gave voice to in 1980. Democrats are supposed to be on the run. President Obama is spent.
It’s a nice tale, this one. The problem is that it’s full of inaccurate assumptions and leaves out the fact that the Republican Party is split and the far right has so far given no indication that they are in any mood to compromise. They will pass bills and send them to the president, and he will veto most of them. Obama will propose legislation that the Congress will not consider. In many ways, the gridlock will continue.
But there is cause for optimism on both sides. The GOP knows that they will be burnt toast in 2016 if they can’t pass some kind of immigration bill that allows people to stay in this country with their families. They also know that they are on the wrong side of history when it comes to marriage equality and that very soon most southern states will be forced to recognize all marriages performed in other states. After all, this is the party that wants government out of people’s lives and wants United States citizens to be free to follow the lives that they choose to live.
On health care, the Republicans will vote one more time, probably within a week or so, to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Then they will need to get serious about how they would implement health care without taking it away from the approximately 10 million people who’ve bought it on the exchanges or qualified for it under the expanded Medicaid program. It is true that the party could wait until the Supreme Court rules in June on whether people who bought policies on the federal exchange qualify for subsidies, but I believe that they will be disappointed. Supreme Court justices read the news and they know that denying people subsidies would cause a mammoth disruption in the lives of millions of people. John Roberts will once again come to President Obama’s rescue and provide the fifth vote to uphold the law.
Democrats have essentially lost the fracking debate because not enough people are having their tap water catch fire to offset the millions of people who are now paying $2.00 for unleaded gasoline. Yes, Governor Cuomo outlawed fracking in New York State last year, but that will mean that upstate will remain an economic wasteland for years to come, but at least will have casinos so people with little money can lose it on their own rather than having to pay higher taxes.
The low gas prices will also make the XL Pipeline a moot point. There is little need now to push for more oil when oil producing states will be experiencing budget crises over the next year or so. If anything, many Republican lawmakers will need to hope that gas prices moderate a bit so they can pay for the services their constituents sorely need. That was a joke, by the way. In the end, though, low gas prices will provide a nice boost to the economy and another boost to American foreign policy, which will see much more pain for Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
What the GOP cannot argue, thought, is that much of this optimism and hope will greatly help President Obama. The economy is already improving and having people spend less on gas will help it more. Does the right believe that people will give the president no credit? If Russia and Iran have to pull back their dastardly initiatives because of falling revenue, does the GOP believe that they will get credit for that? Of course not. The president gets the blame when things go wrong and the credit when things go right, and an expanding economy is the number one issue on most Americans’ minds.
Perhaps this is the moment when both parties realize that they do need to work together if they want to achieve anything, and activists on both sides will need to recognize that they will have to give something up in order for legislation to move forward. I can confidently say that there will be no broad tax cut this year, nor will an immigration bill contain a path to citizenship. There will be no carbon tax or an increase in the gasoline tax. The Common Core is not going away. Neither is Social Security or Medicare.
Our country was born of compromise. It’s the only way we will move forward.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
As seen on America The Not So Beautiful
November 5, 2014
By Mike Caccioppoli
I have been quiet. I let the elections play out without writing inane predictions or coming up with facile “keys to victory” that you see on so many other blogs and media outlets. I let the candidates do what they felt was necessary to win, and even though I’m a cynic I felt that people wouldn’t want to elect a party that has obstructed every step of the way and that was responsible for the economic collapse that Obama has almost totally cleaned up. I mean I talk about how dumb many Americans are all of the time but I didn’t think they would be that dumb, that suicidal. Of course I was wrong.
Americans did elect Republicans, but not just enough to barely give them control of Congress but in a huge wave, no wait, a tsunami, and it wasn’t just the House and the Senate but in Gubernatorial races as well. There will be a Republican governor in Illinois and Maryland!! Watching the coverage of the returns I could only shake my head at the response from the millionaire pundits. They wanted to “dissect and analyze” the results. “What does this mean?” they questioned. “This is a total repudiation of Obama!” was of course the answer that right wing politicians and “strategists” gave. No wait….”This is just the way it goes for a President in the mid-term of his second term in office.” Just the way it goes.
The answer my loyal readers is obvious, simple. There is no need for hours, days, weeks, months of head scratching and “soul searching.” Americans are simply the dumbest creatures to roam the earth. That’s it. Am I disappointing you? Did you expect something more “high brow?” Andy Borowitz, the brilliant satirist for the New Yorker wrote one of his mock articles and the point was simply that Americans have the memory capacity of a gnat. But is this really the excuse? That they forgot that this was the party that caused the economic collapse that almost put in a depression? That this is the party of war that loved our time in Iraq and wanted more of it? That this is the party that tried and continues to try to take away health care from the millions that have acquired it through Obamacare? Did they really forget that this President has created jobs for over 60 straight months? That the stock market has doubled since he took office? That the deficit has been cut in more than half? That gas prices are lowest in ages, and the same goes for unemployment? That he got us out of two wars, killed Bin Laden, etc etc etc.??
People like the schizophrenic Chris Matthews thinks the people want to see jobs! You see to a guy like Matthews it’s all a game. A political game that has no real meaning in his life because he is rich and famous and will continue to be no matter what happens. Same goes for folks like Chuck Todd, and all of the morons on Fox News. It’s just a game. The real answers are ones they are not willing to give because they would lose their gigs if they did.
Americans are dumb yes, ignorant, yes, can’t remember what happened yesterday (which is I guess why they are dumb and ignorant.) But there is another element to this. Many people are just simply racist and evil. It doesn’t matter what the Republicans did to the country and it surely doesn’t matter what Obama has done to bring us back. This is the revenge of the racists. They knew that blacks (and I will get to you folks in a minute!) weren’t going to vote the way they did when Obama was heading the ticket so this was their chance. No way to negate their racist votes this time! Same goes to the young voters (got yours coming as well!). So they pounced. Seized the moment. They registered their disgust at a black President. Of course not one pundit came anywhere close to talking about this. Watching MSNBC, I knew that Al Sharpton was seething. You could see it on his face. He had every right. Not only had the racists won, but his own people had let him down.
His own people. There is NO WAY IN HELL if Chicago comes out to vote that a Republican is elected Governor there, same goes for Baltimore in Maryland. Both have heavily black populations. So you see, the racists were able to win almost everywhere they wanted. How does it feel? You guys love to talk about marching, and stand your ground, and Trayvon and Mike Brown, and FUCK YOU! And I can say all of this because I VOTED! I can talk down because I now have the right. If you didn’t vote you can just sit there and read this and take it. Same goes for the young voters who don’t think mid-terms are important enough to pull them away from their sexting. Up yours as well!
Then again maybe I’m being a bit harsh. I mean blacks shouldn’t be called upon to be the saviors of racist America time and again. They shouldn’t have to be. A guy like Obama shouldn’t have to rely on those votes to win. Same goes for the Democrats. Not in a normal country anyway. There was a poll that said it all..in the USA there are still 43 percent of the electorate that believes abortion should be illegal. 43 PERCENT! In the year 2014. This shows the evil and ignorance that slithers here. Go find another civilized nation and find out what that number is. If they even need to have such a poll in any normal country.
The evil and ignorance and racism was on full display on election night. The black man must be punished, he must be shown that it was a mistake for him to ever run for office in the first place. We’ll teach him. They were upset they couldn’t literally hang him anymore but hey second best was to figuratively hang him. Hang the Republicans around his neck instead of a rope.
That’s what happened pundits. It wasn’t about policies or politics. There was no “thought process” with the voters. No need to twist things into a hundred different shapes to try and come up with a reasoning. There was however another problem. This one is age old and will probably never change. Democrats are huge gaping pussies. They have zero backbone. They are weak and feckless and disgusting.
Instead of running on the great record of one of the most successful Presidents of all time, running on such little things as record job growth, record stock markets, lowest gas prices in years, lowest unemployment in years and of course that small accomplishment known as Obamacare which gave millions upon millions the option of actually seeing a doctor and going to the hospital without, you know..dying instead. No they not only didn’t even mention any of that stuff but they actually avoided Obama like the plague, like he was George W. Bush! Grimes, that lame ass woman who ran against the rooster head, wouldn’t even say that she had voted for Obama! I mean how feckless can you be?! By the way, most of the female Dem candidates were just as lame and as useless as the male candidates this time around. Hey I have a great idea. I know it’s groundbreaking and all but here it goes…how about we nominate the BEST candidates?! Hey!! What a fucking idea! How about we nominate people like Alan Grayson of Florida, who aren’t afraid to embrace Obama and his policies??
Guess what? He won! In Florida! Guess who also won? Pretty much anyone who didn’t run away from the President. Guess who lost? Everyone who did. Don’t worry though, all of those campaign advisers will still make millions, write books and be fine. Same goes for the candidates. Republicans never seem to have a problem with embracing their leaders and touting their policies but not Democrats. As Will Rogers once said, “I don’t belong to any organized political party, I’m a Democrat.”
What the Democratic candidates did was simple. They ran away from the black man. As though their lives were at stake. As though he had a shank. They were as racist as the ignorant voters. This is another reason why so many Dems stayed home, so many black voters.
So I say this… There is nothing to lose now. Nothing at all. This President needs to give the Republicans and the racist voters what they have been afraid of all along. The angry black man.
He needs to come out with a huge chain of bling around his neck. A huge chain with four letters spelled out as big as possible. V E T O.
Anything less and his great legacy will dissolve into a big puddle of nothingness.
Mike.Caccioppoli@yahoo.com
@CaccioppoliMike
Visit America The Not So Beautiful
Jon Stewart looked at the political system in Texas and admitted a truth that Democrats refuse to see – Texas is not turning blue, “it is as red as red can red!”
In a recent segment on his Daily Show, Stewart spoke about Louie Gohmert and his lack of basic knowledge or common sense on any issue. And he spoke about the ultra conservative Greg Abbott who currently holds a 20 point lead in the polls over his Democratic challenger Wendy and Abbott’s running mate David Dan Patrick, who is up by 17 points over his Democratic challenger, Sen. Leticia Van de Putte. Stewart concluded that if the likes of Gohmert and Abbott are succeeding in Texas, then there is clearly no hope for Democrats.
“You poor bastards,” Stewart told his live audience in Austin. “Democrats in Texas are like the drunk guy at the bar who won’t stop hitting on a girl, even though we know she’s a lesbian; ‘no, no, no, dude, trust me. I can flip her, I just need time.’”
Video
If the sentiments expressed in this article in the New York Times today is any indication, then the Democrats are in deep trouble in the November Senate elections. President Obama still has his fans, but even people who voted for him are losing some faith that he can lead the country out of its present political torpor in the last two years of his term. His opponents, and at this point there are more than ever, are downright gleeful at the thought of having the GOP take both houses of Congress, though they do express frustration and anger at his failures.
RealClearPolitics is being a bit coy about it, but most of the recent polling gives the Republicans leads in the states they need to win to take control of the chamber. The same is true over at Electoral-Vote, except the Votemaster is not being coy at all and is saying at this point that the GOP will claim at least 52 seats after the elections. And even over at the Princeton Election Consortium the news for Democrats is not positive, with the prognostication currently calling for 51 Republicans come January.
Does this mean that it’s over? Not at all. Democrats famously under-perform in midterm election polling and there’s still a half-month to go before the votes are counted. President Obama has lent his also famous get-out-the-vote apparatus to the national party and most polling organizations make an assumption that the electorate in 2014 will look a lot like that of 2010. If that’s true, then the GOP will win. If not, and more of the Democrats’ constituents come out to vote, then there will be many surprises on election night.
The mood of the country will have a good deal to do with the outcome, and right now the Republicans have the upper hand. Of course, they are running on the fear of Ebola and ISIS, which they are convinced will both run through the United States over the next couple of weeks. It also doesn’t help that the seats the Democrats have to defend are in mostly red states.
If the Republicans win this year, then payback will most likely come during a more favorable cycle for Democrats in 2016. In the meantime, look for Congress to try to repeal the ACA, continue to investigate Benghazi, fortify the Mexican border against terrorists, and lower taxes on the wealthy.
You know, the real issues.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
I have gone on record as saying that the Democrats will somehow come out of the midterm elections still controlling the Senate, if only because Vice president Joe Biden will be the deciding vote in a 50-50 chamber.
That was last week. And a new spate of polls has the left in a bit of a tizzy, since they seem to show the GOP potentially picking up 7 seats, which would give them clear control. Let’s take a look.
RealClearPolitics shows nine tossup races on their election map, but new polls last week also show Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Georgia moving to the right. One notable poll, from Qinnipiac, is clearly and outlier, but especially in Colorado, the trend is towards the Republican. Electoral-vote also shows the same trends, although a mouse-over some of the more contested states shows razor-thin majorities in Colorado, Arkansas and Iowa. And over at the Princeton Election Consortium, the Meta-margin is currently at R+0.9 using a polls-only model.
So what does this mean?
That the races are still too close to call and that we need many more polls to make some sense of where we stand. No candidate in any of the contentious states has 50% in any poll or poll average, making it difficult to gauge anything other than movement towards one candidate or the other. In the end, the Senate race will be one of bragging rights since President Obama will veto anything he doesn’t like. The big repercussions will have to do with judicial and other nominees, where the Senate will most likely advise, but not consent. And in 2016 the GOP will be at the disadvantage, having to defend 23 seats.
The best news for the left, though, is the news that the GOP is still moving farther to the right, as evidenced by this past weeks Values Voter Summit. As long as Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Rick Perry are the faces of the Republicans, they will continue to lose national races.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest
September 11th, 2001 went down in history as a time when our political leaders dropped the ball. They were asleep at the wheel and this country paid and is still paying a heavy price for their failure to do their jobs.
That attack, a coordinated effort between multiple terrorists, brought down the Twin Towers in New York city, ending the lives of 2605 people. Another plane hit the Pentagon killing 125 more and yet another plane crashed in Pennsylvania killing all on board. In total, 2,977 people died that day, including the passengers on all the planes.
To add insult to injury, the Republican administration once again took its eye off the ball when, instead of going after the perpetrators of the terrorists attack, they went after oil in Iraq instead. Another 4486 American troops gave their lives for this oil, tens of thousands more sacrificed limbs for the Republican’s war and hundreds of thousands Iraqi civilians died, while the mastermind of the terrorists attack that forever changed the lives of every American on September 11th, that man – Osama Bin Laden, walked free. At one point in his presidency, George Bush was even caught saying that he was not concerned about Osama bin Laden anymore.
All that happened on the Republican watch, or should I say on the Republican nap. It wasn’t until a Democrat, Barack Obama, came into power that we developed a strategy, we refocused our efforts and eventually found and kill Osama Bin Laden.
So I was once again, utterly shocked when this latest Gallup poll came out saying that Americans prefer Republicans when it comes to fighting terrorism.
According to Gallup, 55% of Americans choose the GOP on this dimension, while 32% choose the Democratic Party. This is the widest Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of asking this question since 2002.
Will this nation ever learn?
