Donald Trump has shouted this from the mountain top that Ted Cruz cheated in the Iowa caucus last Monday. Well now there’s audio to suggest that Donald Trump is right!
According to recent reports by Breitbart, members of Cruz’s campaign called various prescient workers in Iowa moments before the caucus votes happened, asking them to tell Ben Carson voters that Carson was dropping out of the race and that these caucus-goers should not “waste” their vote on Carson, but should vote for Cruz instead.
“It has just been announced that Ben Carson is taking a leave of absence from the campaign trail,” one voicemail stated. “So it is very important that you tell any Ben Carson voters that for tonight, uh, that they not waste a vote on Ben Carson, and vote for Ted Cruz. He is taking a leave of absence from his campaign.”
The two voicemails were left at 7:07 p.m. and 7:29 p.m. local time, after CNN reported that Carson would be traveling to his home in Florida after the caucuses, but not ending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
The second voicemail states that Carson will be “suspending campaigning following [Monday’s] caucuses,” adding that any caucusgoers backing Carson should be urged to switch their support to Cruz.
I’m not really the type to say “I told you so,” but I indeed told you so on numerous occasions that Donald
Trump would not be the GOP nominee and neither will Ted Cruz.
Trump’s second place finish in Iowa is but the first blow to his campaign, because while he was battering Cruz with ads and withering sarcasm, Marco Rubio, who is no moderate, snuck up on him and finished a very strong third. This gives the GOP alternatives to Trump and my sense is that they will take advantage of that.
Iowa also marked the beginning of either the beginning or the end of some of the more moderate Republican campaigns. Jeb, Kasich and Christie absolutely must come in second or third in the Granite State if they are to have any traction for the rest of the month and to stick around for Super Tuesday. By next week the GOP field should lose Fiorina, Carson and Paul, and their supporters will have to go somewhere. My guess is that they won’t go to Trump or Cruz.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Bernie and Hillary were locked in a tight race that likely serves Sanders better because the polls said he would lose by a small margin. To lose by an even smaller margin, or perhaps to eke out a small win, puts Clinton back a bit going into New Hampshire where Bernie is expected to do very well.
Funny how actual voting can really mess up a narrative. Onward we go.
I predict that the global rise in temperature will show a significant decline on Monday as all the hot air bloviators, pollsters, consultants and media talking heads hold their steamy breath as they await the results of the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn’t they? The numbers all say that Donald Trump will win the caucuses over Ted Cruz, with the rest of the GOP field barely in their rear-view mirror.
And then of course there’s Iowa’s importance as a…as a…mid-western, um, evangelical-heavy, um…white, um…state. That really doesn’t represent much about America except that the Republicans there seem to have fallen for Trump’s snake oil and Cruz’s smarmy insincerity.
Which is why I think the results will likely be different from the media narrative that’s been written since the fall. I could be wrong, and if I am I will say so because I live in New Jersey and from the governor on down to us little folk, we New Jerseyans always tell the truth and admit our failures and flip-flops.
For what it’s worth, I have been saying all along that neither Trump nor Cruz will be the GOP nominee because both their personalities and their policy prescriptions will not appeal to a majority of either party voters or the electorate at large. Trump has been inconsistent in his message on the stump and hasn’t really come up with specific fixes for the economy, foreign policy or constitutional issues mainly because he doesn’t have many. Calling people stupid or losers or saying that he can fix things because he’s a businessman doesn’t inspire confidence. Cruz, likewise, is running to head a government that he doesn’t even respect. He says he knows what the constitution means and the original intent of the framers, but my suspicion is that they would laugh him out of the room for being a presidential pretender at best.
Trump and Cruz are likely to be first and second in Iowa, but I don’t believe that either one will crack 30% of the vote and the big surprise will come from Marco Rubio, and one of Bush or Kasich, who will do far (far) better than what they are polling right now. I think they could approach 20% of the vote, which would instantly put them in line to be seen as the moderate/establishment savior for the party, and the de facto person to beat in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s e-mails have reared their ugly heads again and they will have a slight impact on the race, but I think she will still win the caucuses by about 5 percentage points over Bernie Sanders. He’ll likely poll in the high 30s or lower 40s on Monday, and will go into New Hampshire as the favorite to win there, but I don’t think he’ll do that either. Clinton has too much money and more support among minorities for Sanders to mount a national challenge.
After a very long pre-season, it’s time for political junkies everywhere to get their electoral needles ready for the voting binge to come. The fun starts now.
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