Category: Immigration Reform

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The Silly Season Starts Early

Technology really speeds things up, no? We used to have to wait until August to read stories that made little sense or that focused on the non-political part of the political process, but this year we should be proud that the press is once again ahead of the calendar and is in full silly season mode on this, the unofficial start of the summer.

Part of the issue might be that both party’s political conventions are in July, which is upsetting the media. Of course, the other reason is that the Republicans will nominate perhaps the least qualified person for president in our nation’s proud history. Whatever the motivation, we needn’t look very far to see evidence of silly-creep.

Point one – I hate to say – is this notion that Donald Trump is a fascist. He is certainly profoundly ignorant on all of the issues of which he’s spoken publicly so far including immigration, energy policy, foreign affairs, climate science, and taxes. But a fascist he is not. We’ll reserve that title for those who really are official members of the Fascist Party and select foreign leaders such as Victor Orban of Hungary and a few African dictators who revel in their personal bloodbaths. Fascism has a specific definition, and since I am a charter member of the Words Have Meanings Collective, I am not going to accept that Trump is anywhere near one. Racist? Sexist? Offensive? Most assuredly. These are the terms we should use and are enough to render him unacceptable as Commander-In-Chief.

The other sillinesses that occupies my thoughts today are the ones associated with the Clinton campaign tactics and polling.  That sound that resembles teeth-gnashing on the left is, in fact, teeth-gnashing over the state of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, or non-campaign, against said non-fascist. Can we get a bit of a break here? It’s May. The campaign hasn’t had a chance to consolidate because Bernie Sanders is fighting to the end, which is both his right and a test to see how the Clinton campaign reacts. Hillary always knew that this would not be easy because of both her last name and her gender. She will become a better candidate once she is able to leverage all of the Democratic resources at her disposal. Many of Bernie’s supporters will back her. Both party’s conventions will have their television moments which I hope are not violent, and then the campaign will begin. Then we’ll see what the strategies are.

As for polling, I’ve said it before, but let’s hear from someone really smart on this and repeat – we will not be discussing polling until August 1. This will be a close race and Trump is getting his pre-convention bump. Hillary will get hers. Then they’ll both get their convention bumps. Then we can pay attention.

In the meantime, enjoy the extended silliness and the holiday.

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Climate Change Domestic Policies Donald Trump Donald Trump Immigration Reform Politics

Denying the Climate of Fear

It was certainly bound to happen. After all, one of Donald Trump’s earliest backers hosted the same crowd when she was running for national office. This is what happens when a politician plays into the anger with more anger and blame and bluster and racism and Islamophobia and, above all, ignorance.

Look, Bernie Sanders has some angry Democrats at his rallies, but Sanders is a responsible, thinking adult who knows that the way you channel anger is to turn it into positive energy and constructive policies.

But the Republican Party has denied climate change for so long that they didn’t see the political climate shifting underneath their Gucci loafers. And now that both the planet and the right-wing are heating up to the point that there’s no turning back, we have our first political super storm. And it’s ugly. Trump has fed the storm for years with his claim that President Obama was not a citizen and that Ted Cruz should be barred from the GOP race. He’s also claimed his own reality when it comes to his finances, his bankruptcies and, in the aftermath of his canceled Chicago rally, the claim that if he hadn’t brought up immigration, it wouldn’t have been an issue in this campaign. Of course it would have: the difference is that maybe we could have had an adult conversation about it, not a white-hot ethnic slur-fest that’s resulting in more Hispanics applying for citizenship so they can vote against Trump (shudder) in November.

The motley crew’s endorsement of Trump – from the Klan to the Illinois Nazi Party to Chris Christie to Ben Carson – makes it quite clear that his message is dangerous and that he needs to be careful about stoking emotional outbursts. Trump needs to rebuke all of this in a national statement, but I’m not holding my breath.

In the meantime, the deniers will ensure that the atmosphere just gets hotter.

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Domestic Policies Donald Trump Donald Trump Foreign Policies Healthcare Immigration Reform ISIS Politics

A Political Snow Job

If nothing else, the big blizzard that hit the East Coast is sparing us from some of the oh-so-trite coverage of the presidential election, which actually only gets underway eight days hence.

Governor Christie did make it back to New Jersey for the storm, even though he had originally said that the Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno, could manage the preparations and aftermath well enough. And she probably could, but New Jerseyans elected Christie and we want him to fulfill at least some of his duties before he slinks back here in the spring to either finish out his term or pull a Palin and resign to do his own cable TV insult show. Besides, his brief run up the polls in New Hampshire seems to have stalled and he’s now behind the other so-called moderate or establishment candidates, and far behind Donald Trump in the February 9 primary.

In fact, it’s the other governor, Ohio’s John Kasich, who seems to have caught a bit of a tailwind in the weeks leading up to the first votes. Some of those polls will likely be outliers because they show him with 15 and 20 percent of the vote, but the trend is positive, and that’s what every candidate wants just before the election.  Meanwhile, it’s Marco Rubio who got the De Moines Register‘s coveted (by those who work for newspapers) endorsement, but that only shows that the Register can be just as wrong as the Manchester, NH Union-Leader, who endorsed Christie before the holidays.

And on your left, that’s Bernie Sanders holding an aggregate lead over Hillary Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire on the strength of the youth vote, which can be treacherous for any candidate to rely on. These results might hold until February, but in the end I don’t believe that Bernie will be the nominee, and that goes for Trump or Cruz too. There’s a president in both fields, but they don’t have a clear lead in the early states.

Which of course brings us to the next topic which is, what any of these candidates will, or could, do if they are elected. And that’s where things get complicated. When asked about the limits of what they could do as president, only Rand Paul answered questions about executive powers.  Every other candidate–every one–declined to give an answer. Not only is that dangerous, it likely shows quite a bit of ignorance about how our constitutional system works.

First of all, should a Democrat be elected, and that’s the scenario I see, the Republicans will control the House of Representatives, and the Senate will either have a small Democratic or Republican majority, but likely not the 60 vote threshold the parties need to stop a filibuster. That will mean that any of the far left policies that Sanders or Clinton advocate will not see the light of day. Public option health care? Nope. Free public college tuition? Nope. Carbon tax? Nope. Immigration reform with a legal status option? Probably nope. Any Democrat will have to compromise and try, incrementally, to move the system to the left.

But wouldn’t a Sanders win be the result of a massive electoral shift to the left? Yes, absolutely. Which is why he won’t be elected. Such a shift is at least two cycles away.

On the Republican side, if Trump or Cruz wins the election, that would mean that the electorate will have moved decisively to the right, which it hasn’t. So they won’t.

A more moderate GOP candidate would have a friendly House and possibly a small Senate majority. This is a recipe for some serious legislation, but the Democrats would likely filibuster the worst ideas away. It would also mean more tax cuts for the wealthy and a rollback, via the same executive orders the Republicans decry from Obama, of the EPA rules that govern everything from automobile standards to coal plant closings to public land management, fewer limits on Wall Street banks (Hillary might do some of this too), and more limits on women’s health care. Of course, the most ominous event would be the rollback of the ACA, which is a very real possibility.

In such a polarized environment, and I don’t see a decisive shift either way in November, much of what the candidates are saying will not come to pass. Throwing 11 million people out of the country would signal the United States as throwing out its historical legacy and I discount it out-of-hand. The same is true of having the Mexicans building a wall on our border. And none of the far right’s agenda concerning marriage equality, banning and criminalizing abortion and bombing ISIS targets will become law. The Sanders agenda, even if some of it is carried by Hillary, is also unlikely.

My faith in the judgement of the American people leads me to believe that the nominees will not be any of the far right or far left varieties. If it looks like one of them might come out of Iowa and New Hampshire with momentum, I can see a backlash by more moderate voters in the later voting states. It won’t mean that the polls now are wrong, but it will mean that they will shift in what is usually a fluid political environment. The money will flow to the establishment candidates for good and for ill, and by the time this is over the country will have experienced a messy, rocky, changeable, infuriating, frustrating, unsatisfying, but ultimately liberating process.

In short, democracy.

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Refugees From Reality

Leave it to the GOP (and some uninformed Democrats) to make a frightening situation something to panic over. The Paris attacks were terrible. The threat of more terrorist attacks on Europe is very real. But if you want to stop terrorists from coming into the United States, tampering with the refugee system is exactly the wrong place to start.

The United States has accepted about 70,00 refugees into this country since 2009.  And there’s a lengthy process. One-third of them were from countries that, on first glance, might supply potential terrorists. How many of these refugees turned out to be terrorists or involved in potential terrorist plots? None.  Further, if ISIS or any other group wanted to send potential terrorists to the United States, why would they choose a process that is thoroughly vetted and could take up to two years? It makes no sense. Which is why, I’m sure, the Republicans are pursuing legislation that would affect the refugee program.

It would be far easier for a potential bomber to come in as a tourist. Or as a worker who doesn’t need a visa. Or as a student.  But of course, no politician wants to shut down tourism or interfere with students who want to come to the U.S. to study or with someone who will do a job that an American won’t or can’t (including high tech jobs that require math, which seems to be another GOP weakness). That would be an economic catastrophe. So instead, they’re going after the one program that vets all applicants over a specified period of time as their target.

Even better, Donald Trump leads the GOP with a policy of building a very high wall on the Mexican border to stop the hordes who are coming to the United States. The truth is that more people are leaving the US for Mexico than are trying to come to this country.  The people who really want to come in, the drug smugglers, have built sophisticated tunnels. A wall won’t stop them.

President Obama is exactly right to veto any legislation that is built on fear, xenophobia and ignorance, which the right seems to think will win it an election next year. Hillary Clinton has proposed a specific, pragmatic policy for dealing with ISIS that goes beyond mere rhetoric and fearful slogans. It’s a policy that even conservatives view as thoughtful and worth considering.

Fear has been the coin of the realm for the Republican Party since 2001. They’ve run on a platform that says only they can keep us safe and I’m sure they’ll plug that exhausted line until November. What they need is a detailed plan for actually fighting ISIS both militarily and diplomatically with our allies. It will take thought and political will rather than blame. So far, I haven’t heard anything that gives me confidence in their ability to confront the threat.

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The Republican Party is not just the Party of “NO”, It’s the Party of “NEVER”

Later this week the country will celebrate a milestone: the date that Marty McFly used to travel to the future in Back to the Future II, the second movie of the trilogy that represents the greatest expression of Reagan-era optimism that Hollywood has yet produced. If only the remaining GOP candidates would sit down and watch all three movies. Then again, they’d reject their sunny demeanor and hopeful message as liberal claptrap and probably only find succor in the fact that almost everyone in the future has a gun.

If anything, this past week’s Democratic debate uncovered the starkest difference between the two parties, and it’s almost the opposite of the 1980s. In this election, it looks like the Democrats will be the ones looking confidently forward, while the Republicans will continue to paint a distinctly negative picture of the country.

According to the right, we are being invaded by hordes of illegal immigrants who are sucking up our resources, taking our jobs and marrying our women. The EPA is bent on destroying free enterprise by covering us in regulations, and the president wants to take our guns. And those are the more moderate accusations. Meanwhile, the Democrats put forward a future that included a higher minimum wage, expanded child care and paid time off, health care and a narrowing of the gap between the wealthy and everyone else.

For those of us who remember the politics of the 1980s, it is a stark contrast. Reagan was the smiling optimist and the Democrats were the scowling pessimists warning the country about the threat of nuclear war. Of course, many of the Reagan-era policies did lead to significantly negative outcomes, such as the orgy of prison building that now houses more prisoners than any other country, and the wealth gap created by Reagan and Bush tax cuts. But other policies did clean up some of the entitlement messes and the economy took off and helped a large number of people.

Today, the Republican Party is not just the party of “no”, it’s the party of “never.” They will never raise taxes. They will never acknowledge climate change. They will never recognize a women’s right to an abortion. They will never acquiesce to gay marriages. They will never allow anyone who came to this country illegally with any chance at either becoming a legal resident or a citizen. They will never talk to Putin or the Iranians. Never, never, never.

How incredibly dangerous.

Yet, they continue to say NEVER in their debates and on the campaign trail, especially the three candidate who will never (I borrowed the word) be elected president, namely Trump, Fiorina and Carson. But even the candidates who do have a chance–Bush, Rubio, Paul and Christie (I’m telling you, do not count Christie out just yet)–are part of the never caucus.

The Democrats, by contrast, were a far more voluble on what is possible in this country. They spoke about how we can address the wage gap, address the changing climate and protect people’s rights. Hillary still has problems with Benghazi and the e-mail issue, but recent Republican comments clearly show that their investigations are political, and that gave her the opening she needed at the debate to claim the high ground, at least for the moment.

Once the primaries are done and the nominees chosen, it will be more difficult for the Republican to move credibly to the political center and still maintain the far right’s blessing, than it will be for Clinton to appease Bernie Sanders’ supporters and gain their votes in November. In a general election, most voters want an upbeat message about how the candidates will lead the country forward and solve its problems, not a general indictment of how terrible things are. The problem for the GOP is that the longer their message is carried by the unelectable three, the more difficult it will be for pragmatic voice to be heard.

If they can find one.

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Forget Iran: The GOP Goes Nuclear


Francis comes in, John Boehner bows out. There is a certain symmetry to some world events and this is one of those moments.

Here we have a Pope who is speaking forcefully and eloquently about how the issues of the day and all the right wing can do is reject his message as an ill-conceived interference into the political realm. Stay away from climate change and gay rights, they say, and for heaven’s sake, stop talking about immigration. Yet Francis has stayed on message in a way that would make House Speaker John Boehner proud.

Um.

Well, former House Speaker John Boehner, that is. Or at least he will be at the end of October. Poor John tried his best to reign in a fractious caucus of elected government officials who detest government and want it flushed down the sink, or at least shut down so it can’t do more damage to the country, damage like pay out Social Security benefits. Or Medicare. Medicaid. Or keep the national parks open. Get people passports. Inspect our food. Defend the country. Provide funds for the less fortunate. Health care. Investigate crimes. It’s terrible, this United States government we have today.

It’s funny how conservatives have been saying for years that we need to base our actions on religious values and that we have lost our way morally under the weight of godless liberal social policies over the past 70 years. Yet here comes an infallible Pope who can be ignored at will because he has the temerity to say that the United States needs to do more, not less. Take in more Syrian refugees. Care more for the poor. Stop demonizing Muslims. Care for the environment and the globe.

When you put the right wing’s agenda together with the rejection of Francis’s message and stir in the fact that the next Speaker of the House is likely to be an even more conservative than John Boehner, then you will get a party that simply doesn’t like anything. And how do you run and win on that?

Mark this week down as the one that will eventually define the presidential election for the GOP. They have been saying no for far too long and the no backbenchers are about to get a more sympathetic ear for them to yell into. The elites are fighting to rid the field of Donald Trump, and he’ll go eventually, but he won’t go quietly or without tearing down enough of the other contenders to make their jobs more difficult. And the new House leadership is likely to allow some of the less savory bills that Boehner was able to squash to get out of the caucus room and onto the floor.

Pope Francis is actually leading the way for conservatives to re-engage in a balanced conversation. He’s no liberal by any stretch of the imagination. But he is a humanist and he understands that if we don’t take care of everyone, than we really don’t take care of anyone.

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The August Election

OK, I’ll play along.

According to the polls, the guesses, the conventional wisdom, the money and the low-down, scandal-mongering, hyper-partisan, yellow-dog press, we now know who’s going to win that all-important August 2015 presidential election. I’m sure you know that this election is a rather unusual one in American politics because it doesn’t take place in every state and candidates can say the most outrageous things and still be considered Oval Office material.

We all know that Donald Trump is going to be our next president because he’ll defeat Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton and Jeb! Bush all at one time because he can speak the loudest and say the meanest things out of all of them. Then again, Hillary is beating Donald in the latest national polls and the money race, so she’ll likely be our next Chief Executive. Except that she’s got an e-mail scandal hanging over her and Benghazi! nipping at her heels like a small yippee dog. No worries, though: when you have a FOX contributor on your side, especially one that advised your husband, you’re going to be fine.

Jeb! is having trouble keeping up his fundraising pace and three money people have just left his campaign so he might as well fold up the tent and go live with his brother down in Texas.  Chris Christie is teetering on the edge of being excluded from the varsity debate in September, but he’s 7th in money-raising which means that there are a few very wealthy people who really have nothing to do with their millions than put it on a guy who has nothing to run on. Perhaps his immigration policy, now known as “When Your Fruit Picker Absolutely, Positively Has to Leave Overnight” might gain him some valuable Tea Party votes.

Scott Walker is going to win this election because apparently he can say that he’s going to defeat ISIS and can harangue Democrats all in the same speech. Not bad for a guy who dropped out of college when he could see the light of graduation in front of him or who said that his foreign policy chops were on display when he faced down some protesters on the statehouse steps in Madison.  Makes you think he’ll get nominated, then withdraw from the race in October because, well, Wisconsin needs him more.

This, of course, is all silly conjecture because the real winner of the August election is John Kasich, the moderate Governor of Ohio who manages to say pretty much what every other Republican candidate says but he says it with a nice Ohio accent so he doesn’t sound too threatening.

But wait! Who’s that gaining major ground on the other wealthier candidates? Why, it’s Carly Fiorina! The wonder executive who managed to almost destroy one of Silicon Valley’s most venerable companies. She’s, well, she’s polling in some high single digits and clearly has momentum as we enter the all-important August 31 period of the race. In fact, she’s hoping to make the adult table debate next month but CNN is playing funny with the numbers so we might have to listen to Chris Christie pick a fight with someone again. Maybe he could yell at Ben Carson just to remind people that Ben’s still in the race. Carson is currently in second place in the Iowa polls, so clearly he’s running away with the election and will be the nation’s second African-American president. I do so like consistency.

Sun glasses on campers because who’s just entered the room and will be moving his stuff the shortest distance out of everyone? It’s Vice-President Joe Biden–the savior of the Democrats. The anti-Hillary. The politician-superhero whose special power is to actually work with members of both parties to get something done. Too old? Balderdash; only Republicans can be too old to be president. Joe will win and take his oath of office at Rehoboth Beach on Monday afternoon when there’s no traffic.

Of course, I’m only kidding about those people winning the presidency. The real victor will be Marco Rubio. The young guy. The guy who supports an actual immigration bill. The one who wants to re-isolate Cuba because recognizing the Castros really upsets his dad. The one who would be really tough on China. Until the Chinese market exploded. They’re not so tough after all, right Marco?

Is anybody else running for president? Of course, and they’re all going to win, except for Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Martin O’Neill and George Pataki, who still insists that he is a candidate.

I’m so glad I was able to clear everything up for you because this has been a close election and gee I’m pleased that it’s all going to be over by the middle of the week.

Isn’t it?

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Immigration Immigration Reform

Immigrant Family Confronts Scott Walker – Like Talking to a Wall – Video

Talking to a Republican armed with talking-points is like talking to a wall. No matter what you say, no matter what you ask, you will be hit with the same talking-points the Republican said before, because, that’s all they have… talking-points.

Watch as this immigrant family confronts Walker and experienced first hand the effects of a Republican armed with talking-points.

Video

ABC US News | World News

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The Most Important Election of Them All

Well, yes and no. Aren’t all presidential elections the most important election in history? It certainly feels that way, especially if you listen to the media buzz that emanates every four years. The future of the country is at stake. The direction of our foreign and domestic policies will be set by the voters in this election.

So it shall be in 2016, but this time there is some truth to the hype. We’ve just witnessed a few Supreme Court decisions that have profoundly changed the country’s political and social landscape. We are still suffering from the after-effects of the Great Recession. Race has roared back as a flashpoint issue. The world situation is critical (as it always seems to be). And by the end of this month, we’ll likely have over 20 people who’d like to run this government formally declare their intention to do so. Impressive. Or foolish.

Right now I would say that the edge in the race has to go to the Democrats, if for no other reason than they have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton and control of the electoral college map. The Republicans are far more split than the left and the remnants of the Tea Party are forcing some of the more moderate candidates to run farther to the right than they’d like. Of course, Bernie Sanders might have that impact on Clinton, forcing her to the left, but she has the advantage of being a known quantity for the past two decades. In addition, more of the Republican candidates are nationally known than are Martin O’Malley and Jim Webb, which means that it will be more difficult for their messages to find daylight.

The Republicans will have the burden to show that they can run the country more effectively than President Obama has during his term. The problem is that more Americans favor the Democratic position on most major issues. Most of the GOP candidates have come out against the court’s marriage equality ruling and want to enact religious freedom laws to protect those people who oppose that decision. These laws might be popular in certain states, but when Indiana tried to enact such a law in March, it met with intense opposition from the business community, the NCAA, and other groups who are committed to a diverse educational and workplace environment. Plus, moderates favor marriage equality, and the GOP will need those voters in key states if it wants to win next November. Rolling back the major civil rights issue of our day will likely be a self-inflicted wound from which the Republican Party will not likely recover.

The same is true, to a lesser extent, on the issues of health care and immigration. The American public is still split on whether the ACA is good policy, but most people want the law to be fixed, not repealed. That the Supreme Court saved the law will provide fundraising fodder for the right, but the GOP cannot afford to take health insurance away from those who already have it under the exchanges. They have floated a fix, but it would repeal the personal mandate, and that would cause havoc because those premiums are  keeping the law afloat. And the health care industry is changing so rapidly because of the law that companies and hospitals would probably oppose anything that cuts into their profits or practices. Remember that the ACA was based on conservative principles. The GOP should recognize that. If they can’t find a way to fix the law, they might find that public opinion turns more to the left, and towards a public health care system that’s the dream of most Democrats.

Donald Trump notwithstanding, the Republicans have a big problem when it comes to immigration. Any candidate that echoes Mitt Romney’s “self deportation” policy in 2016 will lose badly. Marco Rubio supports an immigration plan that is more progressive than the other candidates and he’s paying for it by losing support among conservatives. One of the candidates is going to have to convince the faithful that a new immigration law is in the best interests of the party and the country. That candidate will then have chance at winning the general election.

The Democrats have their own problems because they can’t run too far away from President Obama, but they can’t be too close either. Americans like the idea of more forceful environment action, but don’t like executive orders. They want higher wages and less income inequality, but don’t want higher taxes or government regulation of the economy. And I suspect that most people don’t want the government to punish banks, as Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have advocated.

The Republicans need to present a more positive message to the country about what they’re going to do if elected, not continue to be against everything that the Democrats are for. They have to realize, as the Democrats did in the 1980s, that their policies are not connecting with enough voters for them to win a national election. This election, though, like most, will be fought on economic and security grounds. Again, the GOP is on the defensive as they are seen as the protectors of the wealthy and against spending on infrastructure, public education, and health issues. An arch conservative, like an arch liberal, will not win in 2016. Pragmatism and a vision to move us forward will.

Because this is the most important election of them all.

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Elected, Perchance to Govern?

Mitch McConnell, moderate. I thought I’d never see that characterization, but after last week’s embarrassing, incompetent, dangerous gambit the House Republicans played, he’s looking like the only GOP adult in the room. John Boehner seems to have lost his caucus and is now dependent on the far right to dictate what gets done in the House, and what’s getting done is virtually nothing. Kicking the Homeland Security funding argument to this week will do nothing except make Friday night another frantic opportunity for brinkmanship and Obama-bashing. In the end, Homeland Security will get funding and the president’s immigration changes will stand. The real losers will be the people who work for the agency as they bite their nails and wait to see if they’ll be getting paid for another week. If terrorists read American news sources, they are surely laughing at us.

Not content to make itself look bad on the domestic front, the Republicans doubled down and asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to come and speak to a joint session of Congress, an honor he will deliver this week. Never mind that his visit, essentially a jab at the Obama administrations efforts to negotiate a nuclear treaty with Iran, will only put more on strain US-Israel relations, although there are reports that things might be getting less strained. Mr. Netanyahu, I’m sure, will have important things to say. The problem is that he might want to think twice before attaching himself to the clown car Congress that can’t seem to find money to pay for homeland security, much less debate a serious issue like a possible Iranian nuclear weapon.

This is also the week that the Supreme Court will hear arguments in King v. Burwell, the case that challenges whether the federal government can give subsidies to people who buy health insurance on the federal exchange. The plaintiffs believe that only those who buy policies on state exchanges should get subsidies. Which of course begs the question, if the court rules for the plaintiffs, will they work feverishly to make sure that the states without exchanges set them up quickly so the law can work and millions of people can keep their health care?

Of course not.  This is most likely the final attempt to destroy a law that is working wonderfully and is fundamentally changing the health care landscape for the better. Also, the states that would suffer the most if the subsidies are struck down will be the poorest, reddest states in the country. You know, the ones whose citizens vote against their interests by electing governments that seek to limit the programs their people desperately need.

And the state that would suffer the most? Florida. Does Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio have a fall back plan if millions of Floridians lose their health insurance? No. Do both of them want to be president? Of course, but what a catastrophe either of them would be.

And finally, this week will see the rollout of the PARCC tests across the nation. School districts are hoping that their technology holds up and that students can navigate the many screen they’ll need to use in order to answer the questions. Some families have decided that they don’t want their students to participate, so they’ve opted out, or “refused” to take the tests as the officials like to characterize it, The testing will take almost three weeks and then return in late April or early May, taking more valuable time and resources from classrooms and actual learning. The tests will mean almost nothing to students, but for teachers, they will count for 10% of their yearly evaluation (in New Jersey, at least). I give these tests five years, and then the education establishment will move on to something newer.

March is certainly roaring in.

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Republican Logic – Repeal Immigration Reform or No Money for Homeland Security

Congressional Republicans are playing hardball with America’s security because they don’t want any immigration reform. And as far as they are concerned, the perfect way to hammer at immigration reform is to include repeal language in a funding bill for Homeland Security. Their stance is clear – if they can’t repeal the president’s immigration order, they will provide zero funds for America’s security.

Funding for Homeland Security runs out February 28th.

“There’s not a Plan B,” said Republican Senate Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), moments after the Senate vote, “because this is the plan.”

No plan B. The only plan these Republicans have is all politics – dismantle the all the immigration reforms put in place by President Obama, and do it by any means necessary. And after the reforms are dismantled, chalk up a win for the party regardless of the consequences to the nation.

Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) echoed that message, saying “many of us agree that we should stand behind the one bill that we sent over there.”

“Most of us feel that way,” he said just before the Senate vote. “Anything less than that, we’re not going to get any better result anyway. So why not just go for what’s really right?”

Tuesday’s Senate vote was 51-48 to end debate on the House-passed Homeland Security bill — far shy of the 60 supporters GOP leaders needed to move to a vote on final passage.

Every Senate Democrat voted against proceeding to the package, as did Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).

It’s unclear how GOP leaders intend to proceed. Republican leaders in both chambers are under pressure to stand firm in opposition to Obama’s actions.

DHS funding is set to expire on Feb. 28, and Republicans are also wary of the political blowback if they’re seen as threatening a shutdown of the agency, particularly in the immediate wake of the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris last month.

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The Pendulum Swings Both Ways

 

It took about 35 years, but the Republican Party is just where it wants to be. They have a Congressional majority and are flush with the optimism of a political movement that they believe has broad popular support. They are looking forward to perhaps winning the presidency in 2016 and finally being able to implement the agenda that Ronald Reagan gave voice to in 1980. Democrats are supposed to be on the run. President Obama is spent.

It’s a nice tale, this one. The problem is that it’s full of inaccurate assumptions and leaves out the fact that the Republican Party is split and the far right has so far given no indication that they are in any mood to compromise. They will pass bills and send them to the president, and he will veto most of them. Obama will propose legislation that the Congress will not consider. In many ways, the gridlock will continue.

But there is cause for optimism on both sides. The GOP knows that they will be burnt toast in 2016 if they can’t pass some kind of immigration bill that allows people to stay in this country with their families. They also know that they are on the wrong side of history when it comes to marriage equality and that very soon most southern states will be forced to recognize all marriages performed in other states. After all, this is the party that wants government out of people’s lives and wants United States citizens to be free to follow the lives that they choose to live.

On health care, the Republicans will vote one more time, probably within a week or so, to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Then they will need to get serious about how they would implement health care without taking it away from the approximately 10 million people who’ve bought it on the exchanges or qualified for it under the expanded Medicaid program. It is true that the party could wait until the Supreme Court rules in June on whether people who bought policies on the federal exchange qualify for subsidies, but I believe that they will be disappointed. Supreme Court justices read the news and they know that denying people subsidies would cause a mammoth disruption in the lives of millions of people. John Roberts will once again come to President Obama’s rescue and provide the fifth vote to uphold the law.

Democrats have essentially lost the fracking debate because not enough people are having their tap water catch fire to offset the millions of people who are now paying $2.00 for unleaded gasoline. Yes, Governor Cuomo outlawed fracking in New York State last year, but that will mean that upstate will remain an economic wasteland for years to come, but at least will have casinos so people with little money can lose it on their own rather than having to pay higher taxes.

The low gas prices will also make the XL Pipeline a moot point. There is little need now to push for more oil when oil producing states will be experiencing budget crises over the next year or so. If anything, many Republican lawmakers will need to hope that gas prices moderate a bit so they can pay for the services their constituents sorely need. That was a joke, by the way. In the end, though, low gas prices will provide a nice boost to the economy and another boost to American foreign policy, which will see much more pain for Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

What the GOP cannot argue, thought, is that much of this optimism and hope will greatly help President Obama. The economy is already improving and having people spend less on gas will help it more. Does the right believe that people will give the president no credit? If Russia and Iran have to pull back their dastardly initiatives because of falling revenue, does the GOP believe that they will get credit for that? Of course not. The president gets the blame when things go wrong and the credit when things go right, and an expanding economy is the number one issue on most Americans’ minds.

Perhaps this is the moment when both parties realize that they do need to work together if they want to achieve anything, and activists on both sides will need to recognize that they will have to give something up in order for legislation to move forward. I can confidently say that there will be no broad tax cut this year, nor will an immigration bill contain a path to citizenship. There will be no carbon tax or an increase in the gasoline tax. The Common Core is not going away. Neither is Social Security or Medicare.

Our country was born of compromise. It’s the only way we will move forward.

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