Tag: election 2012

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Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Politics

The Ryan Bounce

It’s been more than a week since Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan as his running mate, which is enough time to determine the extent of any bounce in the polls. At this point, the answer is that Ryan has helped in part, but it remains to be seen if he provides a more lasting upward movement in Romney’s numbers.

Last week, Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post/Pollster wrote that the polls weren’t showing much of a bounce, perhaps 1 or 2 percentage points towards Romney, but most of the gains were within the poll’s margin of error and that President Obama had gained in some polls after the announcement. Nate Silver weighed in on the Romney bounce in the polls and the Intrade markets, and was unimpressed, but he did note that many of the trend lines in recent polls have moved in Romney’s direction. Stuart Rothenberg also wrote an interesting piece warning that party identification samples are key to deciphering polls and weighing their relative merits. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who watches and analyzes polls, but it will become even more important as pollsters move from registered voter samples to likely voter models after the party conventions.

The state polls that were released last week show better results for Romney than any perceived bounce from the Ryan announcement. The Purple Strategies polls from August 15 give Romney leads in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, and Obama the lead in Colorado. Recent polling in Virginia is showing promising news for the Romney campaign as he tries to cut into Obama’s perceived strength in the Washington suburbs.

From the article:

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says the task for Romney is to put the “pieces of the puzzle” together: the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Washington suburbs and exurbs, along with the rural regions of southwest Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, and Southside. “The rural areas are still 20 percent of the vote in Virginia,” Sabato says, and the people there are conservative. The difference this year is that Republicans in these parts of the state are more motivated than they were in 2008. Maximum turnout among rural Virginians could make all the difference.

If those results stood up until November, Romney would win the presidency and the Republicans would probably take the Senate.

There were a pair of Wisconsin polls, with Romney ahead in the Rasmussen survey and Obama ahead in a CNN poll. The big difference is that Rasmussen polled likely voters and CNN found registered voters, so in this case I would say that the addition of Paul Ryan has probably affected the race.  The president is ahead according to a Franklin & Marshall  poll of Pennsylvania (registered voters) by 47-42%, but that margin represents a reduction from 11 points the last time F & M polled, so the Romney campaign will probably look to put more resources into that state.

The national tracking polls don’t really show a sustained bounce for the GOP. Gallup now has Romney with a 2 point lead, which is up from a tie late last week, but the Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama leading by 2. That represents a 6 point swing for the president who was down by 4 as late as last Wednesday.

In the end, the polling after Romney made the Ryan announcement has been mixed with some good news on the state front for Romney and a continued national lead for Obama. The Republican Convention provides our next opportunity to gauge the race and I would say that this is Romney’s biggest and best opportunity to introduce himself to the American people. If he does it well, he could see a 10 point bounce in the polls. Anything more would be gravy, but anything less would be seen as disappointing. In addition, unemployment figures will be released not long after the Democrats close their convention, and we know how both campaigns will use those numbers.

Enjoy the August doldrums. The excitement lies ahead.

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Politics

Polling Report Double Issue Centerfold: Presidential Race and Super Tuesday Edition

Fans of the blog already know that on the 6th of every month I take a look at the polling for the 2012 presidential election. This month is like Christmas and Hanukkah falling on the same day because today is also Super Tuesday, so I’ve combined the two into one mega look at the race. No, it doesn’t get any better than this.

Obama Job Approval

February was a “what goes around comes around” month. President Obama saw a steady rise in his approval ratings through mid-February, due in large part to the improving economy and the viciousness of the GOP primaries. For the last 10 days, though, he’s come back to earth a bit.  The latest RealClearPolitics Index of his job approval is here. His approval rose from 46.6% to 48.1% and his disapproval numbers also rose slightly from 47.6% to 48%. There seem to be two outliers in the Index: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking, which at one time had Obama +4, now has him at -9, and the Politico/GWU Battleground, which has him +8. Take those two out and smooth the remaining numbers and you have a net plus for the president since February 6.

I suppose you could read the numbers two ways. In one interpretation, he is steadily climbing as he campaigns and runs ads, while in the other he’s in trouble because after 3 years, he still can’t claim a majority of the voters as approving of his performance. Allan Lichtman was sure about Obama’s reelection as far back as two years ago. We’ll see if he’s right about that.

Head-To-Head Match-Ups

My assumption is that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he’s really their only hope. With that in mind, here are the latest numbers in that match-up showing Obama with an overall 49.1%-44.4% lead. This is an improvement over February when his lead was 2%.

The Ballots

The only change in the Electoral College map is that Wisconsin has moved into Obama’s column because of his +10 lead in the latest PPP poll, giving him a lead in states that add up to 227 electoral votes with the Republican at 181. Electionprojection.com has Obama winning 285 electoral votes this year according to their model. We’ll follow them throughout the campaign.

The latest NBC News/Marist poll has Obama beating Romney in both Virginia (+17) and Ohio (+12). If these numbers hold, there are very few scenarios for a Romney victory. If Obama wins Ohio, the assumption is that he’ll win Pennsylvania. Even if Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, that’s not enough. At this point, I would say that NBC’s numbers are a bit optimistic for the Obama campaign. Stay tuned.

Republicans now lead the Generic Congressional Ballot by. 0.2%, but that was before Olympia Snowe announced her retirement from the Senate. The Congressional numbers will fluctuate throughout the spring. When we get definite candidates for each race, it should come into sharper focus.

Super Tuesday

No matter how you slice it, this was a terrible week for the Republican candidates, the party and its message. The fallout from Michigan showed that Mitt Romney’s popularity took a hit. From the article:

The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll gives him a favorability of 33% and an unfavorability of 46%; a recent Politico poll puts his unfavorability above 50%.

Then of course there was the distraction of Rush Limbaugh’s remarks about Sandra Fluke, the ongoing debate about the contraception issue, which lost a Senate vote, Olympia Snowe’s retirement announcement, and the advancement of marriage equality bills in Maryland and Washington. This allowed President Obama to take the high road and appear presidential, which is the last thing the Republicans looked like.

So let’s get to the skinny.

It’s all come down to the delegate count now as Mitt tries to push his way to the magic number of 1,145. He’ll pick up a bundle on Tuesday and will separate himself from the field. I have a suspicion that if he does very well (defined below), GOP operatives will ask Santorum and Gingrich to step aside for the good of the party. Since neither one knows what that is, they might stay in the race.

Here’s a link to the states holding elections and the delegates at stake. Here’s my take on what will happen:

Gingrich wins Georgia. No surprise, doesn’t matter. Extra good day if he also wins Oklahoma and/or Tennessee.

Paul wins Alaska and Idaho.

Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee (barely). If he doesn’t, goodbye.

Romney wins Virginia (the other two aren’t on the ballot, and neither is Rick Perry), Massachusetts, and Vermont. If he can pick off any of Alaska, Idaho or North Dakota, a good night. Tennessee or Oklahoma, a great night. Ohio, a super night. All of the above, lights out.

Which brings us to Ohio. This is the key to today. If Santorum wins, he can damage Romney even more and claim that, since he’ll win Pennsylvania, he should be the nominee (he won’t be). A Romney win ends the game.

Prediction:

Romney            38%

Santorum          35%

Gingrich            15%

Paul                  10%

Romney wins it sooner rather than later. GOP elites breathe easier. You can follow me at:

www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

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marriage equality Politics

Get The Hell Off The Beach: The GOP Tsunami Heads Towards Shore

Last week I wrote that the conservative movement would crash this year because of internal disagreements and the inability of one candidate to unify the Republican Party’s fractious components.

Then I waited to see what the next few days would bring. They were uglier than I could have imagined.

Mitt Romney came out against the rescue of GM, even though the auto giant reported record profits and a sustained increase in hiring. Not to be outdone, Rick Santorum expressed the same sentiments, which makes Romney’s stance even more vexing because Mitt’s supposed to be the business savvy candidate with a keen eye for profits and efficiency. That they both agree with each other shows just how out of touch the GOP is. What sense does it make to oppose a policy that saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, revived the tax base of scores of towns, and forestalled what might have been an even worse mortgage and foreclosure crisis in Michigan and Ohio, among other states? Being anti-Obama is one thing. Being pro-ignorant of consequences is quite another.

On the contraception front, both men made sure that they offended a wide swath of the electorate, starting with Santorum backer Foster Friess’s comments about gals using aspirin between their knees as a reliable form of birth control. We also found out that Santorum views contraception as harmful to women. The uproar was so great over this issue that Mitt Romney was forced to veer away from his economic message and attack President Obama as waging a war on religion. As it turns out, the Republicans are waging a war on reason as poll after poll showed that most Americans and most Catholics supported the president’s policy.

I understand the religious objection and think that the Obama administration could have managed the issue more delicately than they did, but in catering to the most base of their base with appeals to hatred, war, and sexism, Romney and Santorum showed that the far right demands absolute fealty to their cause. Discussion and debate is not an option.

Marriage equality was also in the news this week and the GOP was on the wrong end of that debate as well. In New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie vetoed a legislature-backed bill to grant equality under the law to all citizens and called for a referendum on a constitutional right. His veto will be overturned by the deadline in 2014. Bank on it.

In Maryland, the marriage equality bill will be signed by the Governor, but will probably be on the ballot this November. Opposition by African-American churches make passage difficult to gauge. Washington State also saw a bill pass, but opponents have vowed to delay or stop it.

The short-term prospects for these bills might be cloudy, but the sun will shine on marriage equality simply because it’s the right thing to do and the demographics support eventual passage of these laws in a number of states. Younger people support marriage equality (even Republicans) in far greater numbers than their older counterparts, a trend that began last year. Since death of the older generation is inevitable, so is marriage equality.

And there’s more. Santorum also questioned the President’s religious beliefs and Romney has had to protect his right flank against accusations that he’s not conservative enough. With the economy beginning to grow the GOP has to bank on things getting worse. Their new line of attack is high gas prices. Wasn’t that George Bush’s fault in 2008? No? Then how can it be Obama’s in 2012? Anybody hear of supply and demand? Anybody?

It seems as though the Republican candidates we have this year will be the ones remembered for the “Fall of Rome” for their party. They are too extreme, too conservative and on the wrong side of the generational issues. They talk about progress while making sure that we regress into a less tolerant past that they’ve convinced themselves was rosy. It’s one that blamed women who were sexually active and slammed the closet door on gays and lesbians. It was intolerant of those who decided they didn’t want to be religious. We’re not going back to that time.

We’re moving forward!

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Ronald Reagan

Joe Biden on Mitt Romney – He Has No Idea Of The Broken Bargain

In a twenty minutes conference call to New Hampshire Democrats on Tuesday, Vice President Joe Biden and the Obama Administration amplified the 2012 presidential campaign.

Taking direct aim at the Republican frontrunner, Mr. Biden said that Romney’s “I like being able to fire people” comment – although it may have been taken out of context – shows how out of touch Republicans are with the struggles of the working class America.

He thinks it’s more important for the stockholders and the shareholders and the investors and the venture capital guys to do well [than] for those employees to be part of the bargain,” he said.

“We inherited a broken bargain. A deal our parents didn’t have to face. Middle-class folks, if you gave them an even chance, they got to share in the benefits they helped to produce for this country. That bargain was broken during the Bush years and we were determined to fix it.

“Listen to Mitt Romney. He has no idea the bargain even exists, let alone is broken. How else can you say the best way to fix the financial crisis is by letting it all go down to the bottom?”

Greed. It has been the underlining and unmentioned trait of the rich in this country for centuries. And for centuries, because of the negative stigma of greed, a stigma the rich didn’t want to be associated with, working class America felt as though they were part of the solution and shared in the profits they helped create.

Then something happened about thirty years ago. With the election of Ronald Reagan, the me first you never attitude was born and the decline of middle class America begun.

Today, after the Bush presidency, that attitude is in full view for all to see. Greed is no longer considered a negative word, in fact, it is a trait Americans are judged by. It is the dividing line that separates the two political parties, as Republicans believe giving everything to the rich is the only way the middle class would survive while Democrats on the other hand believe that all Americans should have a fair shot at the American dream.

The 2012 election is about a choice that couldn’t be any clearer. Do we re-elect a president who believes that every American must have equal opportunities to make their American dream a reality, or do we elect someone who agrees with the Ronald Reagan and George Bush philosophy that taking from the poor and giving to the rich is all that matters?

With one candidate’s policies we can once again return to a system where the American dream is possible. With the alternative, we can continue the nightmare that Reagan and Bush started.

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