Tag: leading

Categories
Politics

The Obama Resurge Starts Now

Ignore the national polls from now on. Ignore them. Even the Gallup poll that has Mitt leading by 7 points. You heard me. The only real action is in the swing states that will decide this election.

There were some very good polls for the president over the past two days, and you need to keep one thing in mind when you read them: they were mostly taken before Tuesday’s debate. The Romney Bounce, which ended last week according to this sage, has given way to the Obama Resurge, which should improve after his debate performance.

Evidence?

Virginia
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania

And with the president holding a lead in Ohio, he’s now ahead in enough states to claim an electoral victory. As I have said before, this will be a very close election down to November 6 and Mitt Romney will need an event or a stellar run of ads and circumstances in order to win.

The final debate on Monday is on foreign affairs, and let’s face facts; foreign affairs ain’t where it’s at this election. It won’t matter how many times Mitt mentions Benghazi or Tripoli or Bibi, fewer people will be watching, and fewer still will know a lot about what he’s talking about. Obama can pretty much stick with “Osama bin Laden is dead” for about 85 minutes, then give a closing that mentions the 47% and GM being rescued.

OK, it won’t be that easy, but I think the debate danger is past, unless Mitt decides that he wants to get aggressive, but since that didn’t work out well on Tuesday, I don’t think he’ll try it.

We’ve come to the frenetic last weeks of a campaign that’s gone on far too long, but this what political junkies like us live for, so get your comfy sneakers on and line up your binders full of women for the stretch run. And stop looking at that Gallup poll. Yes, I’m talking to you.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest

Categories
Wisconsin Wisconsin Union Bashing

With Three Weeks to Recall, Walker Leads in Wisconsin

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows that with three weeks to go until the recall election Gov. Scott Walker (R) has taken a six point lead over Tom Barrett (D), 50% to 44%, among likely voters.

Three weeks ago, Walker’s lead was just one point.

Said pollster Charles Franklin: “While both parties show unusual levels of involvement in the campaign, Republicans appear to hold an advantage in likely turnout, although Democrats are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign. In a close election with so few undecided voters, enthusiasm, turnout and campaign contact with voters may make the difference.”

[Political Wire]

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

As The Santorum Runs in Michigan, Romney Stays Afloat

Michigan has become a must win for Mitt Romney. He was born there (although we haven’t seen his birth certificate) and his family has strong ties to the state. His father George Romney, even held office there when Mittens was a young millionaire. But over the last few weeks, polls have suggested that the state is becoming a headache for Mittens, as Rick Santorum is really running (for lack of a better word) through the state and Romney’s own words in 2008 and a few weeks ago, to let Detroit go bankrupt.

But Mittens is slowly gaining hold once again in the state. Public Policy Polling (PPP) puts it this way: “The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.”

Categories
Newt Gingrich Politics Republican Party

Newt Gingrich Is Leading – So Much For The Conservatives Claim To Morals

It seems the Christian Conservatives and Republicans have made up their minds.

In a party that claims to have  moralistic superiority when it comes to family values, Christian Conservatives in the Republican party have settled on Newt this-is-my-third-marriage-after-serving-my-wife-divorce-papers-while-she-laid-in-a-hospital-bed-recovering-from-cancer Gingrich.

A new Poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowa found that Gingrich, once left for dead in the Republican nomination process, has taken a commanding lead.

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP’s last poll of the race in early October.  Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%.  Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

The poll was conducted between December 2nd and December 5th. PPP surveyed 572 Republican caucus voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1%

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