Tag: New Hampshire

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Iowa Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics Rick Santorum

Presidential Polling Report: Special Iowa Edition

And you thought the holidays were over. Having the Iowa caucuses so soon after the new year is a great gift for political junkies and opens what should be an expensive, long, important and uniquely-American national election season. That Iowa and New Hampshire take all of the attention so early is an unfortunate quirk of the system and will provide us with untimely candidate exits and lots of wasted money.

If you’re new to the process, or just can’t believe this is how we elect our president, here’s how the Iowa caucuses work.

And now onto the analysis and predictions.

The poll that everyone is talking about was released on Saturday: The Des Moines Register’s poll of likely caucus attendees.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.  

Based on the results of this poll, one scenario stands out to me. If Romney wins, it gives him great momentum heading into New Hampshire one week from today. Assuming he wins that, we could see full carnage among the challengers. Bachmann will either drop out of the race or her supporters will go to another conservative candidate, probably Santorum if he comes in second in Iowa. A fifth place finish for Perry would also lead many of his supporters to Santorum. Jon Huntsman will also leave after losing in New Hampshire, with his supporters moving to Romney and perhaps Gingrich. In any event, a conservative will emerge as the main challenger to Romney. That will become the main story through South Carolina and Florida later in January. If it’s Santorum, it will represent one of the great come-from-behinds in a long while.

It’s hard to say that a Santorum win immediately sets him up as Romney’s most viable main challenger. He’ll need to quickly establish a presence in South Carolina and Florida, which takes money and ground game, and he doesn’t seem to have much of either. He can, as can Gingrich or Paul if they place highly in Iowa, bypass New Hampshire or at least pass it off as Romney’s backyard and focus on the states where there are more social conservatives. Gingrich could spend more time in New Hampshire and claim a moral victory. I’m not putting much faith in a Paul victory after Iowa.

The 41% of Iowans who could change their mind are the wild cards in this race. If they decide that Romney is most electable, he’ll win a resounding victory and the race will be all but over. If they stay with one or two of the conservatives, then the race gets more interesting and probably lasts a bit longer. A stronger Gingrich showing than fourth makes him the main competition, but I don’t see it. Mainly because the thought frightens me a bit. Nothing scientific about that.

A PPP poll released on Monday shows

Ron Paul at 20 percent, Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent on a survey for which PPP reports a margin of error for each candidate of +/- 2.7 percent. Running farther back are Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 8 percent, Jon Huntsman at 4 percent and Buddy Roemer at 2 percent. PPP interviewed 1,340 likely Republican caucus goers on December 31 and January 1.

Santorum again seems to be the recipient of a late surge and is the second choice of 14% of respondents, the highest of any of the candidates. His personal approval rating of 60% is twice his disapproval rating. heady stuff for someone who lost their last election.

The rest of the polling can be seen at RealClearPolitics.com

Both NBC and the Rasmussen poll have Romney, Paul and Santorum in that order, which supports the Register poll from the weekend.

And here’s a nice chart from Polls and Votes

My pick for the results are as follows:

Romney 26%

Santorum 24%

Paul 21%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

It’s always more fun when you stick your neck out (like Louis XVI and his lovely wife Marie), so make your prediction in the comments section. Remember that in order to complain about the process, you have to commit to it.

As always, you can follow the action here and at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

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Barack Obama Iowa Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics

Crocodile To Newt Gingrich: I Want My Tears Back Please

Remember the Democratic primaries in 2008 when Hillary Clinton choked up and almost came to tears? Conservative pundits practically crucified her,  accusing her of trying to pull a political sympathy stunt to win the New Hampshire elections and possibly the White House.

Mrs. Clinton went on to win in New Hampshire a few days later, but the White House eventually went to Barack Obama.

So what, I wondered,  will the Conservative talking-heads say now that Newt Gingrich – a one time leader of the Republican presidential field, who now trails Mitt Romney and Ron Paul – has opened up the water works?

Speaking at an event in Iowa, Gingrich was asked a question about his deceased mother from Frank Luntz, a pollster and close friend of Gingrich. As if on cue, Gingrich faced reddened as he mentioned that talking about his mother made him  “teary-eyed.”   He blubbered on a bit more and then came the water works as he exclaimed how she loved to sing in the choir and embarrassingly admitted that she made him sing in the choir also. How cherubic he must have been in those days.

We all know that talking about one’s beloved deceased mother can stir up a lot of emotion, but coming from Newt Gingrich – a man known for trying anything and everything possible to win a political race, a man who’s demonstrated time and time again that honesty is not his forte… one can’t help but wonder how many practice sessions were needed to make this moment just right for television.

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Mitt Romney Politics

Huntsman’s Supporters Call Romney A “Chameleon” – Ad

Jon Huntsman’s name will not be on the ballot next Tuesday in Iowa, but that is not stopping his supporters from rallying around him in New Hampshire, and in their rally cry to bring more attention to Huntsman, they’ve come up with a perfect name for Mitt Romney – a Chameleon!

The $300,000 ad campaign is expected to begin running across New Hampshire this weekend, according to an adviser for the organization known as Our Destiny PAC. The adviser was not authorized to comment publicly.

“Two serious candidates remain,” a voice says in the ad, which flashes images of Huntsman, the former Utah governor, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and front-runner in New Hampshire. “One willing to say anything, be anything. One who can actually do the job.”

It continues: “One state can stop the chameleon. Vote Jon Huntsman.”

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Mitt Romney Ohio Politics Republican

Conservatives To Mitt Romney – Stop The Flip Flopping And Take A Stand

There’s a big fight going on in Ohio, and as far as Conservative Republicans are concerned, Mitt Romney is on the wrong side of the issues. That is, todayhe is anyway — because  it seems

Romney is trying to represent both sides of the issue at the same time.

Two very important initiatives are on the ballot for the upcomming election. Issue 2, will allow the people of Ohio to roll back the union busting provisions passed earlier this year by Republican governor John Kasich. If issue 2 passes, the people of Ohio would have essentially repeal Kasich’s decision on limiting collective bargaining in his state. Issue 3, also on the ballot, would allow Ohio to withdraw from any Health Care mandate.

So why are Conservatives even more upset with Mitt Romney today than they were yesterday? Because he went to Ohio and gave a non-answer when asked about his position on the ballot initiatives. His non-answer would allow him to flip flop later on if necessary, and Conservatives were not happy. They expected Romney to say that Jon Kasich’s decision to limit collective bargaining was correct. Instead, all they got was;

“I am not speaking about the particular ballot issues. Those are up to the people of Ohio. But I certainly support the efforts of the governor to reign in the scale of government. I am not terribly familiar with the two ballot initiatives. But I am certainly supportive of the Republican Party’s efforts here.”

Conservatives became confused. This to them, was not a strong stance against the Issue 2 and they collectively denounced Romney, causing his campaigners to later try and patch things up. His campaign spokes person issued the following statement; “Gov. Romney believes that the citizens of states should be able to make decisions about important matters of policy that affect their states on their own.”

That statement was still not good enough to those who wanted Romney to take a position for or against the ballot initiatives. A top conservative group called The Club For Growth made this observation;

“The big problem many conservatives have with Mitt Romney is that he’s taken both sides of nearly every issue important to us. He’s against a flat tax, now he’s for it. He says he’s against ObamaCare, but was for the individual mandate and susbidies that are central to ObamaCare. He thinks that collective bargaining issues should be left for states to decide if he’s Ohio, but he took the opposite position when he was in New Hampshire. This is just another statement in a long line of statements that will raise more doubts about what kind of President Mitt Romney would be in the minds of many Republican primary voters.”

Romney’s true colors are shining through, but what’s upsetting to his conservative base is that they  those colors are subject to change day to day.

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Newt Gingrich Politics Republican United States

Newt Gingrich’s Moral Dilemma Number 866

Picture this for a second…

You start a non-profit charity that deals mostly in religion and faith issues. You then write a book for profit, then get your non-profit charity to buy your books and DVD’s. The non-profit charity that you started, then paid $220,000 to another for-profit company, a company that you also started.

Well, if you’re like me, you’ll see something very wrong here. Your non-profit company giving your for-profit company $220,ooo just seems to be breaking – if nothing else – some moral ethical barriers. But apparently, if you’re a Republican running for President of the United States, and if your name is Newt Gingrich, this behavior is not only accepted, but welcomed.

The charity, Renewing American Leadership, not only featured Gingrich on its website and in fundraising letters, it also paid $220,000 over two years to one of Gingrich’s for-profit companies, Gingrich Communications. It purchased cases of Gingrich’s books and bought up copies of DVDs produced by another of the former House speaker’s entities, Gingrich Productions.

“The spirit of operating a non-profit organization is to work for the public good regardless of the politics that are involved,” said Daniel Borochoff, president of the American Institute of Philanthropy, in an interview with ABC News. “I believe it violates that spirit.”

Asked about the allegations this morning prior to a speech in New Hampshire, Gingrich urged an ABC News reporter to focus on his speech.

“I’m not concerned about that. The American people aren’t concerned about that. Try covering the speech,” Gingrich said as he left a campaign event. When the reporter tried to follow up, Gingrich got in his waiting car and slammed the door.

And all Anthony Weiner did was send texts to different ladies, and he’s being ask to resign? Really?

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Elections Iowa Newt Gingrich Politics Republican South Carolina United States

Gingrich Campaign Falling Apart

This is a big LOL! moment. The Huffington Post is reporting that Republican Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has a major problem – his campaign staffers are heading for the door in droves.

WASHINGTON — Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich’s campaign manager, senior strategists and key aides in early delegate-selection states all resigned on Thursday, a mass exodus that leaves his hopes of winning the Republican nomination in tatters.

Rick Tyler, Gingrich’s spokesman, said he, campaign manager Rob Johnson and senior strategists had resigned, along with aides in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Other officials said Gingrich was informed that his entire high command was quitting in a meeting earlier in the day. They cited differences over the direction of the campaign but were not more specific.

Maybe they all saw something shiny on the outside and decided to go investigate. How easily they get distracted.

Gingrich said he is determined to continue his campaign. At this rate, he may be doing it all by himself.

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Mitt Romney Politics South Carolina

Mitt Romney May Be Violating Federal Elections Rules

Democrats have filed a complaint with the FEC — Federal Elections Commission — against Mitt Romney,  accusing Mr. Romney and his election campaign office of funneling “soft money” into his presidential bid. According to the report;

Strict limits exist under the Federal Election Campaign Act on contributions an individual can make to a federal election campaign, compared with the unlimited funds that can be sent to a PAC by individuals or corporations.

“Credible evidence suggests laws may have been broken by Romney using ‘soft money’ corporate, unlimited donations to fund (his) presidential campaign,” the party said.

Romney has been an aggressive fundraiser in recent years through his national Free and Strong America PAC, based in Lexington, Massachusetts, and state PACs nominally located in Alabama, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, and South Carolina.

The complaint was filed on Friday April 29th.

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Barack Obama Donald Trump Donald Trump Featured Republican United States

Rand Paul To Donald Trump: Are You A Registered Republican?

“I’ve come to New Hampshire today because I’m very concerned,” Rand Paul, the freshman Teaparty winner in Kentucky said. “I want to see the original long-form certificate of Donald Trump’s Republican registration.”

There was light laughter in the room, when Mr. Paul made the request during a breakfast speech on Thursday at the Merrimack County Republican Committee. Hearing the laughter, Mr. Paul added, “Seriously, don’t you think we need to see that?”

One day after Mr. Obama released his long-form birth certificate from the state of Hawaii – a move that was followed by Mr. Trump’s claim, during a visit to New Hampshire, that he believes he deserves credit for the president’s decision – Mr. Paul sought to turn-the-table on Trump. He gently urged Republicans to take notice that Mr. Trump has contributed money to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, and many other Democrats.

“I’m going to believe it when I see his embossed seal to his Republican registration,” said Mr. Paul, a rising figure in the Republican Party who is visiting New Hampshire this week during the Congressional recess. He spoke with a smile, but his words marked one of the first times that a leading Republican has challenged Mr. Trump’s ties to the party.

Your move chump, oops, I mean Trump!

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Barack Obama Chuck Schumer Politics United States

Mr. President, This Is Not A Good Idea

Okay, so there really is a first for everything. Consider this our first and maybe not the last critique of this Administration.

What is going on with President Obama? The National Journal is reporting massive cuts to LIHEAP (Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program),  a federally funded program geared towards helping the poorer among us to heat their homes during the cold winter months. The report states that this will be  “the biggest domestic spending cut disclosed so far, and one that will likely generate the most heat from the president’s traditional political allies.”

This is obviously an effort by the administration to appease the Republican party, who have promised the Teaparty that they will impose massive cuts to domestic spending programs.

The decision has left some in the President’s own party scratching their heads. The report continues;

One White House friend, Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said earlier today that a Republican proposal to cut home heating oil counted as an “extreme idea” that would “set the country backwards.” Schumer has not yet reacted to Obama’s proposed cut. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., declared: “The President’s reported proposal to drastically slash LIHEAP funds by more than half would have a severe impact on many of New Hampshire’s most vulnerable citizens and I strongly oppose it.” A spokesman for Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., declared similarly: “If these cuts are real, it would be a very disappointing development for millions of families still struggling through a harsh winter.”

In a letter to Obama, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., wrote, “We simply cannot afford to cut LIHEAP funding during one of the most brutal winters in history. Families across Massachusetts, and the country, depend on these monies to heat their homes and survive the season.”

The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, would see funding drop by about $2.5 billion from an authorized 2009 total of $5.1 billion. The proposed cut will not touch the program’s emergency reserve fund, about $590 million, which can be used during particularly harsh cold snaps or extended heat spells, three officials told National Journal

Read the rest of the report here.


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