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Citizens United Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics presidential Republican Rick Santorum South Carolina

Apres-Primary Musings: Mitt Can’t Conquer the Mountain

We are not impressed.

If Mitt Romney can’t muster over 40% of the vote in a backyard state against a field of sub-par candidates with extreme positions on the issues, then he’s not ready yet for his curtain call. Yes, it certainly was a good day for Romney, but not as good as his victory speech would indicate.

He’ll win the nomination, but two things are abundantly clear. The first is that Romney still hasn’t galvanized his party as a candidate, and the second is that Republican enthusiasm is turning out to be somewhat of a myth.

Let’s get to the numbers.

Here’s what I said would happen (left) and here’s what actually happened (right):

Romney      38%        39.4%

Paul            19%        22.8%

Huntsman   16%       16.8%

Gingrich      11%         9.4%

Santorum    10%         9.3%

Roemer         3%         0.4%

Perry             1%          0.7%

As in Iowa, not bad. I seem to have underestimated Ron Paul’s reliable support and overestimated Buddy Roemer’s, but I don’t think I was alone.

If present reports are true, all the candidates are moving on to South Carolina where the PAC-men will be gobbling up money and air time in their quest for Romney’s scraps. This will be Citizens United writ not on the main stage, but as regional summer stock theater. Millions of dollars that otherwise could be spent on more significant pursuits will be sucked down the rabbit hole of ego and vanity. That’s the new democracy at work, and we’d all better get used to it because when the campaign moves to Broadway in the fall, there’s going to be an ad war like no other.

South Carolina is the last stand for Huntsman, Santorum and Perry to be sure unless any of them pull wild upsets and finish in the top 3, and above 20%. Gingrich could stay in if he’s in the top 3 because he now has PAC money and Paul and his minions will stick around for the duration. Romney can claim the nomination with a dominant performance, over 40%, but 30% will be enough to make him inevitable.

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Elections Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

The Polling Report: Special New Hampshire Edition

You can just call me the Hammer, because I nailed the Iowa results almost perfectly. Of course now I will suffer for my obvious act of hubris, but I don’t believe that will come in New Hampshire.

This primary has an odd air about it because the overwhelming sentiment is that Mitt Romney will win, but it won’t matter much. The fun will come later in the month in South Carolina and Florida.

So let’s get to the polling and analysis. The latest RealClearPolitics average shows Romney with a large lead over, in this order, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. Here are the specifics from the latest PPP Poll. Santorum has not received a major bounce out of Iowa because he’s far too conservative for New Hampshire and he’s professed some ideas that haven’t sat well with pragmatic New Englanders, like his diatribes against gay marriage. He’s also, well, Rick Santorum, who has some well-publicized issues stemming from when he was a Pennsylvania Senator and those came to light once the press started snooping around.

Ron Paul has his reliable legions who will support him throughout the primary season, so it’s no surprise that he’s in second place. This primary is make-or-break for Jon Hunstman, and I expect that he’ll drop out of the race when he finishes a distant third. Newt will stay in through at least Florida as a pain-in-the-side for Romney now that he’s received a huge infusion of money, and Rick Perry will also drop out after South Carolina when he finishes fourth in a conservative state he otherwise could win. If he wasn’t such a terrible debater, that is.

The only drama I see in New Hampshire is Mitt’s vote percentage. He must, in my estimation, receive above 40% of the vote in New Hampshire in order to meet expectations. If he falls below that threshold, it will be a major embarrassment for him and it will expose him as the second choice to everyone else in the field. It won’t really matter what the other candidates poll. The pressure is on Mitt. If he gets above 47%, then he shows obvious strength with the people who will decide the 2012 race, moderates and independent voters, and will be seen as the presumptive nominee. Having said that, the latest polls show Mitt actually losing some support according to the tracking polls. He began the weekend at around 42%, but has dropped to 33% in the Suffolk/7News Tracking survey released on Monday.

At this point in the race, we need to face some facts: Santorum, Gingrich and Perry are damaged goods and are just saying the most outlandish things in a last-ditch effort to appeal to the far right. Paul isn’t even popular with Republicans, for heaven’s sake, Huntsman never received his bump (and he won’t in South Carolina) and is seen as the other Mormon in the race. That’s America: two, three or four Protestants of any denomination, no problem, but room for only one Mormon.

Leaders of the conservative movement have recently been stepping up their efforts to find an alternative to Mitt, and it looks like the early winner is Santorum. I think they should find a true conservative who’s not in the race, vet them for all of their transgressions and run them as a candidate outside the primaries. That’s their best chance at having a conservative who can be elected. I’ve always thought that there would be a third party candidate in this election and that they would come from the right. This might be the time to start that movement.

The last big issue is the Super-PAC money entering this race from all sides. It’s enabling the field, minus Huntsman, to buy ads in South Carolina that will probably blanket the state for the next two weeks. Most of it will be aimed at Romney, and I’m sure we’ll hear more about how he likes to fire people and how many employees lost their jobs because of Bain Capital.

And now for the stick-out-my-neck-for-the-guillotine moment: Prediction for Tuesday.

Romney 38% Paul 19% Huntsman 16% Gingrich 11% Santorum 10% Roemer 3% Perry 1%

Mitt gets enough to claim a win, but falls short of the 40% threshold. Huntsman leaves the race gracefully, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry move on to the south to make their final stands. Perry leaves after South Carolina and perhaps Santorum does too. Newt stays around because he loves to hear himself talk.

Mother Jones has a Fantasy Primary Predictor here if you’d like to play.

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Politics teachers

We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Teachers

It’s simply amazing what happens when people get elected to statewide office. They seem to become experts on everything. Today’s Exhibit A is education, specifically in Idaho and New Hampshire, where the legislatures have passed legislation that not only threatens the role of teachers in their classrooms, but also undermines their expertise and reduces them to penitents at the altar of official incompetence.

I’ve been thinking about Idaho for most of the week. Not just because I used their yummy potatoes to make latkes for Chanukah (this should be Idaho’s official dish), but because of a law passed last year that mandates the use of technology in public school classrooms and requires students to take two online classes in order to graduate high school. What’s wrong with that, you say? Plenty, because it was passed with no teacher input and is based on faulty educational premises.

Why would any state pass rigorous teacher certification requirements and observe educators for a number of years to make sure they’re competent, only to ignore them when making key decisions about how to implement a costly program of technological innovation? That’s what happened in Idaho. Teachers had almost no input into the law, and even though the Governor said this was not a first step in reducing the number of teachers in classrooms, that sentiment was contradicted by the online course requirement.

It’s not a leap of imagination to believe that if the online component proves successful, either academically or economically, then the course requirement would be increased. Further, part of the funding for this program would be taken from teacher and administrative salaries, which is usually the first step towards the self-fulfilling prophecy that says since we need computers and they cost money, we need to reduce staff because we’re paying too much in salaries.

The even larger concern is the legislature’s, and governor’s, ignorant attitude towards the classroom teachers. From the article:

Idaho is going beyond what other states have done in decreeing what hardware students and teachers should use and how they should use it. But such requirements are increasingly common at the district level, where most decisions about buying technology for schools are made. 

Teachers are resisting, saying that they prefer to employ technology as it suits their own teaching methods and styles. Some feel they are judged on how much they make use of technology, regardless of whether it improves learning. Some teachers in the Los Angeles public schools, for example, complain that the form that supervisors use to evaluate teachers has a check box on whether they use technology, suggesting that they must use it for its own sake. 

The most effective scenario for any change in the curriculum is to have teachers at the table engaged in the process they will be asked to implement. Educators are the experts in child development, learning theories and styles, and how best to guide their particular classes (which change every year) so that every child has the opportunity to learn at their optimal level. When politicians get involved, you get attitudes like this:

For his part, Governor Otter said that putting technology into students’ hands was the only way to prepare them for the work force. Giving them easy access to a wealth of facts and resources online allows them to develop critical thinking skills, he said, which is what employers want the most. 

When asked about the quantity of unreliable information on the Internet, he said this also worked in favor of better learning. “There may be a lot of misinformation,” he said, “but that information, whether right or wrong, will generate critical thinking for them as they find the truth.” 

First, technology is not “the only way” to prepare students for the work force. Teachers know that technology can be a valuable tool in the classroom, but there are many other skills that students need to learn. Tell me how a computer teaches a student interpersonal skills. Tell me how technology actually teaches a student correct spelling, grammar and usage (and no, a red or green underline doesn’t count). Tell me how a computer teaches someone how to negotiate for their salary. Tell me how technology alone teaches critical thinking skills. Tell me how technology teaches organizational skills. Tell me how technology teaches a student which websites contain legitimate information and which do not.

The truth is that teachers teach these skills. They can use technology as their activity or resource to support and facilitate the lesson’s educational objective, but the technology is not the end itself. So when the governor says that technology is the only way and that computers themselves can teach critical thinking, he’s wrong. And that’s exactly the problem with the Idaho initiative. I applaud its goals. Classrooms should have technology available to all students because not all homes are equipped, but education decisions must include teachers. Even the students in Idaho’s schools get what the state’s leaders miss:

Last year at Post Falls High School, 600 students — about half of the school — staged a lunchtime walkout to protest the new rules. Some carried signs that read: “We need teachers, not computers.” 

Having a new laptop “is not my favorite idea,” said Sam Hunts, a sophomore in Ms. Rosenbaum’s English class who has a blond mohawk. “I’d rather learn from a teacher.” 

New Hampshire’s new law has nothing to do with technology. I wish it did, because it’s even more frightening and potentially damaging to teachers and public schools. This Nashua Telegraph article tells the story, and here is a summary:

Public schools can now be forced to come up with an alternative to any lesson or assignment that a parent finds objectionable.

On Wednesday, the Legislature overturned a veto from Gov. John Lynch on a bill, HB 542, that will require school districts create a policy “allowing an exception to specific course material based on a parent’s or legal guardian’s determination that the material is objectionable.” 

The legislation does not attempt to define “objectionable,” giving parents complete discretion.

So essentially, any parent can’t walk into any public school and demand an alternative curriculum by objecting to any lesson plan they want. As opposed to Idaho, Governor John Lynch vetoed this bill but was overridden by the Republican majority. The effect is the same, though. Teachers will now have to look over their shoulders at every turn and will need to craft alternate lessons, indeed an alternate course, if one parent objects. This not only undermines educational professionals in New Hampshire, but also subjects the schools to even more political mischief in the form of pandering to particular groups and stirring up dissent over familiar targets like sexual references, defense of non-western religions and vocabulary that others find objectionable. All you need to do is read the comments under the article to see what kind of damage awaits New Hampshire’s educational community (Pete Perkins, you are my hero). Yes, parents will need to pay if there’s a cost involved, but replacing a book or video for one child would have minor economic repercussions.

But there’s also the matter of the new national test score craze.What happens when a parent opts their child out of enough lessons and the child doesn’t perform well on the tests? Who’s responsible? Is it the teacher’s job to develop an alternative state test to measure what that students has learned in their curriculum? Will the parent be responsible for the parts of the test that the student never learned (already know the answer here). How can a teacher prepare all students when there are so many potential changes due to parent objections? Who’s thought this one through (already know the answer)?

As a resident of New Jersey, I am used to having politicians with no teaching backgrounds expound on their damaging ideas. Governor Christie is a fan of using test scores to evaluate teachers, but he ignores the research that says how difficult it is to design an accurate evaluation model or the economic and curricular impact of testing every student in every subject every year. He’s also excluded public school teachers from a panel that studied reform ideas that, surprise, concluded that Christie’s ideas were more beneficial.

A recent New York Times article used the Value Added Model to reinforce the idea that good teachers have an impact on their students that reaches far beyond the classroom. What makes a good teacher according to the research? Why, one that raises student test scores. I call this Reinforced Illogical Garbage, or RIG. And right now, the system is RIGged against informed, rational, collaborative educational policies that tap into the enormous knowledge base of teachers, who actually know best how to educate children.

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Election results Iowa Mitt Romney Politics Republican

Post-Caucus Cigarette: What The Results in Iowa Mean

Was Iowa good for you? All that talk about three-way ties must have made conservatives across the political spectrum very uncomfortable. So let’s tidy up a bit.

Here’s what I thought would happen, and what actually happened:

Romney     26%          24.6%

Santorum  24%         24.5%

Paul            21%          21.4%

Gingrich    15%        13.3%

Perry          8%        10.3%

Bachmann   5%         5.0%

Not bad, I think.

Obviously, it was a terrible night for Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann who now have to be considered the first casualties of the race. Perry has the money to carry on and could find some sympathy in South Carolina and Florida, but he’ll struggle to get any positive press out of Iowa. Better he should keep his money and spend it on a Senate race. Newt also underperformed and needs a great showing in the next three states to remain viable. Ron Paul did about as well as can be expected, but he’s just not going to be the nominee. Did he gain influence in the party? Yes. Let’s see what that actually gets him.

Rick Santorum is the big winner here and with debates this weekend he has the chance to capitalize on the momentum. He’d better make sure that he’s prepared to defend himself because Mitt, Newt and Ron Paul are going to throw everything at him. If he does well he could place, after Mitt, in New Hampshire and set himself up for a better showing in the southern states. If he falters under the pressure, he’s probably toast. Right now I would say that he’s the best hope for the Tea Party and religious conservatives. And sweater vest manufacturers (who I hope are in the USA).

And Mitt? If he had kept his mouth shut on Monday and Tuesday about his chances of winning, he could have feigned surprise at his good showing. Since he set expectations higher, though, his performance has to be seen as underwhelming. He’ll win New Hampshire next week, but now it has to be more than a solid win. Anything under 40% is a Pyrrhic victory. He also has to keep his composure during the debates and not come off as screechy or too aggressive. That would be seen as desperate.

So now it’s on to the Granite State where global warming is killing the skiing industry. Move along citizens; nothing to see here.

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Iowa Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics Rick Santorum

Presidential Polling Report: Special Iowa Edition

And you thought the holidays were over. Having the Iowa caucuses so soon after the new year is a great gift for political junkies and opens what should be an expensive, long, important and uniquely-American national election season. That Iowa and New Hampshire take all of the attention so early is an unfortunate quirk of the system and will provide us with untimely candidate exits and lots of wasted money.

If you’re new to the process, or just can’t believe this is how we elect our president, here’s how the Iowa caucuses work.

And now onto the analysis and predictions.

The poll that everyone is talking about was released on Saturday: The Des Moines Register’s poll of likely caucus attendees.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.  

Based on the results of this poll, one scenario stands out to me. If Romney wins, it gives him great momentum heading into New Hampshire one week from today. Assuming he wins that, we could see full carnage among the challengers. Bachmann will either drop out of the race or her supporters will go to another conservative candidate, probably Santorum if he comes in second in Iowa. A fifth place finish for Perry would also lead many of his supporters to Santorum. Jon Huntsman will also leave after losing in New Hampshire, with his supporters moving to Romney and perhaps Gingrich. In any event, a conservative will emerge as the main challenger to Romney. That will become the main story through South Carolina and Florida later in January. If it’s Santorum, it will represent one of the great come-from-behinds in a long while.

It’s hard to say that a Santorum win immediately sets him up as Romney’s most viable main challenger. He’ll need to quickly establish a presence in South Carolina and Florida, which takes money and ground game, and he doesn’t seem to have much of either. He can, as can Gingrich or Paul if they place highly in Iowa, bypass New Hampshire or at least pass it off as Romney’s backyard and focus on the states where there are more social conservatives. Gingrich could spend more time in New Hampshire and claim a moral victory. I’m not putting much faith in a Paul victory after Iowa.

The 41% of Iowans who could change their mind are the wild cards in this race. If they decide that Romney is most electable, he’ll win a resounding victory and the race will be all but over. If they stay with one or two of the conservatives, then the race gets more interesting and probably lasts a bit longer. A stronger Gingrich showing than fourth makes him the main competition, but I don’t see it. Mainly because the thought frightens me a bit. Nothing scientific about that.

A PPP poll released on Monday shows

Ron Paul at 20 percent, Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent on a survey for which PPP reports a margin of error for each candidate of +/- 2.7 percent. Running farther back are Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 8 percent, Jon Huntsman at 4 percent and Buddy Roemer at 2 percent. PPP interviewed 1,340 likely Republican caucus goers on December 31 and January 1.

Santorum again seems to be the recipient of a late surge and is the second choice of 14% of respondents, the highest of any of the candidates. His personal approval rating of 60% is twice his disapproval rating. heady stuff for someone who lost their last election.

The rest of the polling can be seen at RealClearPolitics.com

Both NBC and the Rasmussen poll have Romney, Paul and Santorum in that order, which supports the Register poll from the weekend.

And here’s a nice chart from Polls and Votes

My pick for the results are as follows:

Romney 26%

Santorum 24%

Paul 21%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

It’s always more fun when you stick your neck out (like Louis XVI and his lovely wife Marie), so make your prediction in the comments section. Remember that in order to complain about the process, you have to commit to it.

As always, you can follow the action here and at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

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Democracy Egypt Foreign Policies Syria United States

Where Democracy Lives

If 2011 will go down in history as a terrible year economically, it will also be known as a turning point year for participatory and representative democracy in many countries throughout the world. True people power, spurred on by technology, second-to-second communications, and defiance of imposing police/military power proved more resilient than even the craftiest dictators. The movements that succeeded in overthrowing one-party, one person or one-ideology governments were not always smooth, and in many cases there is far more work to be done in order for the revolutions to hold onto their gains, but the people who have changed governments are now living in an altered world.

Consider the promise of democracy (the United States still needs to work on some of these):

  • Where democracy lives, citizens do not fear the state.
  • Where democracy lives, the press is freer, but must be more subservient to the truth than ever before.
  • Where democracy lives, the military belongs to the people.
  • Where democracy lives, women, ethnic and religious minorities, and people of all sexual orientations have full civil rights.
  • Where democracy lives, economic and educational opportunities are available to all levels of society.
  • Where democracy lives, the political process is messier, more susceptible to special interests and harder to corral, but power rests with the people.
  • Where democracy lives, justice systems must restore or establish the rule of law, not the rule of the open palm.

As for the countries that are under the most serious political pressure from their citizens,

Democracy now lives in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya

It’s knocking on the door in Syria.

It’s at a turning point in Russia, Hungary, Iraq and Ukraine

This will not be easy, and it’s not clear if the citizens of these countries will eventually taste the fruits of new-found freedom, or if the benefits of democracy will touch their lives. But they are well on their way towards a more productive, politically freer future than they were 12 months ago. The United States has a responsibility to help nurture these democratic movements, even if we aren’t supportive of the groups that are elected under their new political realities.

My hope is that over the next 12 months, more people in the United States and the world over will become involved in their country’s political process from every band of the political spectrum. It’s essential that we have vibrant debate and a full airing of the issues that face us if we are to progress and solve our problems.

So in addition to losing weight, resolve to do one thing that will make the country and the world a better place for all of us. Register to vote. Join an organization. Contact your representative and establish a working relationship with them on an issue. Start a social media site to highlight a concern you have. Be part of the solution.

And join me daily on facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

Happy New Year!

Categories
Domestic Policies Mitt Romney New Jersey Republican

I Went to Trenton to Govern, But All I Got Was This Lousy $38 Million

Governor Christie has had some major legislative accomplishments over the past two years including a 2% cap on property taxes and a public worker pension and benefits overhaul. Mind you, these laws have not necessarily made life better for New Jerseyans, as taxes have still risen and thousands of experienced public workers have either retired, fled or have been laid off because of them.

The past six weeks, though, have been another story for the guv’nor.

Despite his general popularity, the Republicans actually lost seats in the November legislative elections. Now Christie will need to rely even more heavily on the Democratic majority in the legislature and the Democratic power brokers in Essex and Camden Counties. Add in the disdain that Senate President Steven Sweeney has for Christie and you have a recipe for gridlock sprinkled with a tablespoon of revenge.

Then, the general consensus was that the lame duck legislative session was going to be one of the most active in years, with bills flying around State Street on teacher tenure and evaluation, property taxes, jobs, budget cuts and patronage. What’s happened? Nada. Almost every issue was pushed to the formal session that begins in early January, and won’t probably get any steam until the Governor’s State of the State message in the middle of the month.

And in the spirit of the holidays, Christie picked a fight with Senator, and former Governor, Richard Codey over the permanent appointment of Commissioner of Education Christopher Cerf, accusing Codey of (gasp!) feeding information to reporters. Christie canceled Codey’s security detail and fired Codey’s cousin from the Port Authority board. That’s politics through and through and shows that Christie will never be the warm, fuzzy leader he sometimes pretends to be.

But the true state of the Governor’s clout was uncovered when New Jersey was actually awarded $38 million dollars in Race to the Top funds by the Obama Administration so it could implement a speculative teacher evaluation system based on student standardized test scores. Getting money should be a positive, but this award only dredged up the previous failure to even qualify for $400 million dollars in education funds because of the Governor’s attitude towards the New Jersey Education Association. Not only did it cost the state money, it also cost Commissioner of Education Brett Schundler his job and showed that Christie would blame everyone but his leadership for the error. It’s a pattern that he’s repeated in every misstep since, and it’s one reason why he would not make a good president.

He’s ending the year by essentially becoming Mitt Romney’s pit bull and possible vice-presidential running mate. Granted, he did only say that he would keep the door open, but that will only serve as a distraction in the coming year, as his flirtation with the presidency proved throughout the fall, because every time he doesn’t get what he wants, the media will remind us all that he’s got his eye on the national ticket. The Governor should just say no this time around and focus on the state.

It’s still very possible that Christie will get some of his reforms through the legislature, but many in the state are tired of his outbursts and outlandish statements. Prosecutors like him are convinced that they are always right and that they have the ultimate truth on their side, so why compromise? We need to remember that the next time one runs for statewide office.

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Iowa Newt Gingrich Politics presidential Republican

We Hardly Knewt Ye!

That was close.

And scary.

The idea that Newt Gingrich might actually win the GOP presidential nomination sent shivers down the spines of enough Republicans that they actually came to their senses this week and  began to support Ron Paul in the Iowa caucus polls. As for the national trends, it looks like Mitt Romney is the betting favorite on Internet sites.

The Gingrich flirtation lasted only as long as voters knew little about what he might do in office. His tirades against the federal judiciary might play well with the ultra-conservatives, but they seem to be non-starters among the more moderate voters who will come out in later primary states. Also, his lack of organization is showing, but that shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. Gingrich never seemed to be in the race for anything other than to get his ideas in the marketplace. He succeeded. Now there’s a 50% off sticker on them and they’re not long for the discontinued bin.

Republican voters have sampled all of the candidates over the course of the last few months and they seem to be coalescing around Romney, despite conservative suspicion that he’s not fully committed to their causes. There’s a good reason for this; he’s not, but he’s the only electable candidate in the field. So that leaves us with a volatile race in Iowa with Romney, Paul (my favorite to pull out a win), Bachmann and Perry able to cobble together enough caucus voters to move on to the next set of states. Rick Santorum is getting a little love this week from evangelicals, but that will all come to naught after Iowa.

Then the serious race will begin in earnest. Depending upon what happens in the next few days, Romney will have to defend Republican obstruction that led to the end of the payroll tax cut, or he’ll have to run against it as flawed policy, despite the cut being popular among voters and economists. He’ll also have to harness the Tea Party faction that doesn’t want to compromise on anything, and is losing support, even with Republicans. Add on the fact that President Obama’s poll numbers are improving, and Mitt suddenly has a more daunting task ahead of him than he did in October (did he just announce his first major policy decision?).

But that’s all in the future. Right now, we should be thanking Newt Gingrich for a spirited campaign that ultimately showed his best days to be behind him. His rise and fall was swifter than Herman Cain’s and the reality of a Gingrich presidency was always going to present problems in a world that’s moved beyond the 1990s. Perhaps Romney can find room for Newt in his administration as, say, ambassador to Libya?

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Nikki Haley Politics Republican Rick Santorum South Carolina

Mitt Is It

I’ve said it before. And it is now painfully apparent that Republican primary voters have cycled through almost every candidate who’s running for the nomination, and they will eventually settle on Mitt. Yes, it’s possible for Jon Huntsman to have his bump, although even if he doubled his support he’d only be polling at 4%. Rick Santorum? Again, it’s possible, but just how is he different from Rick Perry? Or, perhaps more importantly, how is he the same as Rick Perry? Here’s how: both will lose.

And Mitt? Well, he just picked up the endorsement of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, which solidifies his position in an important southern state that votes in January, even though Haley’s support is causing her problems with the local Tea Party voters.

But how do we really know that Romney is heading towards the nomination?

Intrade. That’s right. The online trading market and prediction website showed that Mitt gained almost 10 points overnight, while Newt’s number plummeted from 38 to 18. Note to Newt: When the capitalists are bailing on you, it’s time to lobby for an ambassadorship to an island with hefty security. Even worse, he’s now behind Herman Cain(!). Ouch. Of course, these numbers could change tomorrow, but I wouldn’t expect a dramatic turnaround for any of the candidates in the field.

Romney might not win the Iowa caucuses and it won’t hurt him unless he falls to fourth place. He’ll win in New Hampshire, and by then a few of the candidates will have dropped out and thrown their support behind “the eventual nominee'” who will be Romney. Conservatives will have to either grin and bear him or stay home on election day, but that will only help Barack Obama, and we all know that helping the president is just not in the GOP’s DNA.

It might be February before Gingrich’s campaign issues a DNR order, but that day will come, sooner rather than later. Then the real campaign can begin.

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BLM Politics teachers

Class And The Classroom

Why does it seem that money matters everywhere but in public education? Corporations spend lavishly to recruit the best workers and provide the most luxurious perks. The best places to live are in the wealthier suburbs that can pay for clean, safe streets. High end cars have the latest gadgetry and safety features.

But public education? In the most important industry we have to promote learning, culture, and democracy we race to the bottom to find out who can spend the least and cut the most, then lament that we don’t get the best people to teach or the highest test scores in the world. Politicians want to break teacher’s unions under the pretense of saving money and are working to create evaluation systems that will use bad data to punish educators and pay them less. And the biggest fraud is the old saw that schools can ameliorate the effects of poverty and raise all students to above average academic levels, a claim that any mathematics teacher will tell you defies the bell curve.

This particular lie is uncovered in the opinion piece, Class Matters. Why Won’t We Admit It? by Helen F. Ladd and Edward B. Fiske in Monday’s New York Times.  The findings should not surprise anyone: 

The correlation has been abundantly documented, notably by the famous Coleman Report in 1966. New research by Sean F. Reardon of Stanford University traces the achievement gap between children from high and low-income families over the last 50 years and finds that it now far exceeds the gap between white and black students. 

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress show that more than 40 percent of the variation in average reading scores and 46 percent of the variation in average math scores across states is associated with variation in child poverty rates. 

International research tells the same story. Results of the 2009 reading tests conducted by the Program for International Student Assessment show that, among 15-year-olds in the United States and the 13 countries whose students outperformed ours, students with lower economic and social status had far lower test scores than their more advantaged counterparts within every country. Can anyone credibly believe that the mediocre overall performance of American students on international tests is unrelated to the fact that one-fifth of American children live in poverty? 

George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind Act was meant to address this correlation, but it only showed how faulty the logic was behind the law. 

As we are now seeing, requiring all schools to meet the same high standards for all students, regardless of family background, will inevitably lead either to large numbers of failing schools or to a dramatic lowering of state standards. Both serve to discredit the public education system and lend support to arguments that the system is failing and needs fundamental change, like privatization.

We’ve wasted billions of dollars trying to achieve results using the wrong measurements and the wrong strategies, from relying on standardized tests to using scripted curricula to cutting money for vocational and technical training for students who do not excel at academic subjects. Then came the devastating budget cuts precipitated by the recession and the rise of Republican governors who don’t understand that competition within schools does little other than to destroy the collaborative atmosphere that enables successful schools to thrive.

What works?   

Large bodies of research have shown how poor health and nutrition inhibit child development and learning and, conversely, how high-quality early childhood and preschool education programs can enhance them. We understand the importance of early exposure to rich language on future cognitive development. We know that low-income students experience greater learning loss during the summer when their more privileged peers are enjoying travel and other enriching activities. 

Since they can’t take on poverty itself, education policy makers should try to provide poor students with the social support and experiences that middle-class students enjoy as a matter of course.  

Of course, you can’t replicate the middle class experiences by implementing policies that hurt the existing middle class while protecting the wealthy, but that’s a minor detail.

As always, though, there’s more.

Another article sheds more light on the relationship between quality education and money in a less obvious realm; the military. That’s right. According to Military Children Stay a Step Ahead of Public School Students by Michael Winerip, children in public schools on military bases are performing better than the general public school population on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, and are narrowing the income gap at the same time. 

At the military base schools, 39 percent of fourth graders were scored as proficient in reading, compared with 32 percent of all public school students. 

Even more impressive, the achievement gap between black and white students continues to be much smaller at military base schools and is shrinking faster than at public schools. 

On the NAEP reading test, black fourth graders in public schools scored an average of 205 out of 500, compared with a 231 score for white public school students, a 26-point gap. Black fourth graders at the military base schools averaged 222 in reading, compared with 233 for whites, an 11-point gap.

In fact, the black fourth graders at the military base schools scored better in reading than public school students as a whole, whose average score was 221. 

Now, I’m not saying that a 39% reading proficiency rate is something to crow about, and there is the matter that military people must be high school graduates and pass an entrance exam to get into the service, but the results do show an improvement over other public school children. And they succeed without doing most of the things that busybody state governments want their schools to accomplish. Military base schools do not use standardized tests to evaluate teachers, but only to identify students’ strengths and weaknesses, and the principal can decide how many times to observe their teachers. Average class size is lower than regular public schools and there seems to be a positive relationship between the teacher’s union and the administration.

But the real lesson is that economically and academically, the students get the support from home that they need in order to succeed. All of the families have health care, housing and necessities because they serve in the military, and at least one parent in the household has a job. These are the basic middle class advantages that are missing from many communities across the country, but ones that politicians are ignoring in their race to blame teachers and demonize their negotiated benefits. They are also what Ladd and Fiske refer to as the absolute minimum that less fortunate students need to compete with upper middle class schools.

Excellent public schools must be available to all students, but they won’t be as long as know-nothing politicians and would-be reformers concentrate on the wrong remedies and research that advocates privatization and cuts to social programs. We need to replicate what actually works for children, families and communities.

Find out what else works at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

Categories
Iowa Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics presidential

My Kingdom For $10,000: Mitt Goes Gilded Age

So, how much damage did Mitt Romney do to his presidential campaign after offering Rick Perry a $10,000 wager on his health care position?  We’ll find out in the next few days after the pollsters have had a chance to wade through their data, but my sense is that it will do damage to what’s left of Romney’s standing as a regular guy who happens to be rich.

The damage control has already begun.

Political campaigns have turned on worse gaffes, as Perry, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain can tell you, but this one will stand out as Romney’s low point. It also comes at a bad time, with voting set to begin in Iowa a day after you’ve returned that last questionable holiday gift.

Of course, Newt Gingrich has harvested the most media attention over the past few weeks, and this trend continued last night. This AP article described Newt as having a “steely calm” and as:

defending his most controversial stands without appearing to be the thin-skinned hothead his critics often describe.

The former House speaker seemed to accomplish that goal in Saturday’s debate in Iowa. His challenge will be to sustain the strategy while rivals attack him on the airwaves and the ground, and to convince conservative voters that he’s their champion despite his occasional departures from orthodoxy.

But Newt’s already had to backtrack on his comment describing the Palestinians as an invented people, which will do nothing to help his foreign policy credentials. And he did a bit of constitutional reinvention when discussing his views of the mandate that would require everyone to buy health insurance. It seems that he supported it in 1993 when he was fighting Bill and Hillary’s program, but explained it this way on Saturday:

“I frankly was floundering, trying to find a way to make sure that people who could afford it were paying their hospital bills, while still leaving an out so libertarians could not buy insurance,” Gingrich said. “It’s now clear that the mandate, I think, is clearly unconstitutional. “

So I guess the Gingrich constitutional test has an 18 year time limit. He’ll need to work on that one.

Overall, Mitt did not do poorly aside from the bet, Bachmann’s reference to Newt Romney was amusing, and Ron Paul’s message continues to be the most consistent of all the candidates. It won’t get him the nomination, but you can’t accuse him of flip-flopping. He’s my pick for second place in Iowa.

What now then? Thankfully, Donald Trump’s mega-disaster debate has been exposed for what it truly is: an opportunity for him to be the star in a political game that only he can win. The GOP field will continue to try and get their messages out while the rest of America goes shopping, and President Obama will try to paint each and every one of them as against the middle class. The latest polls show Obama ahead both nationally and ahead of Gingrich specifically in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Six months ago, it would have been madness to predict the Republican state of affairs as it exists today. Six months from now, I think that Mitt Romney will stand as the eventual nominee. I don’t have $10,000 to back it up, though.

For more prescient predictions, visit facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

Categories
Collective bargaining Politics Teacher teacher tenure

Bold Ideas Lead to Great Schools: The Future of Education Reform

This article originally appeared on my blog at: anjfarmer.blogspot.com

Sometimes an idea, or set of ideas, comes along that’s so clear and sensible, it makes you stop and wonder why we haven’t implemented it. Then again, some ideas are so ineffective, it’s a wonder they haven’t been buried in an avalanche of criticism

Such is the state of public education reform in the United States at this moment. Governors throughout the country have tried, and in some cases succeeded, in forcing their versions of school reform in their states with little or misguided thought and a jaundiced eye towards the teachers who will need to carry it out. They eschew collaboration for rigidity, cooperation for coarseness, and conversation for calumny. Theirs is a corporate model based on competition, but that’s not necessarily how schools work. So far, this top-down approach has done little for education, but has done a great deal to sour relations between the adults who need to carry out the changes and the politicians who want votes.

The key to real, lasting, effective reform in this country lies in a partnership between the state governments and teachers, parents and students, and the most effective reforms will focus their energies on people working together. That’s why the ideas in the article, Taking Teacher Quality Seriously: A Collaborative Approach to Teacher Evaluation by Stan Karp of Rethinking Schools Blog, are so vital. Those ideas are aimed at improving education and student performance without sacrificing the rights and concerns of teachers. As Karp says:

One promising model is the Montgomery County, Maryland Professional Growth System (PGS), which has taken a collaborative approach to improving teacher quality for more than a decade. Several defining features make the Montgomery model very different than the test-based “value-added” or “student growth” approaches. The Montgomery Co. professional growth system:

  • was negotiated through collective bargaining rather than imposed by state or federal mandate.
  • is based on a clear, common vision of high quality professional teaching practice.
  • includes test scores as one of many indicators of student progress and teacher performance without rigidly weighted formulas.
  • includes a strong PAR (peer assistance and review) component for all novice and under-performing teachers, including those with tenure.
  • takes a broad, qualitative approach to promoting individual and system-wide teacher quality and continuous professional growth.

There are many strengths to the PGS, as outlined above and in the rest of the article. It allows for collective bargaining, so it’s less antagonizing than the Wisconsin model that took away that right from teachers, and it has a component for peer assistance (PAR), where experienced teachers can share their expertise with newer educators.

But perhaps the best part of the system is that it’s not SDOT (Shoved Down Our Throats) by politicians who have little, if any knowledge of what works best in classrooms. It’s teacher-centered; and that’s the correct approach because teachers are the ones best qualified to carry it out.

The PGS also addresses another concern that the public has about education, and that’s teacher quality. As Karp notes: 

In 11 years, the PAR process has led to some 500 teachers being removed from the classroom in a countywide system of about 150,000 students with approximately 10,000 teachers and 200 schools. Over the same period, nearly 5,000 teachers have successfully completed the PAR process.[ii]

But PAR is only part of a professional growth system designed to improve teacher capacity throughout the system, not just identify and remove ineffective teachers. It’s a qualitative approach growing out of a shared vision of high quality professional practice. The PGS begins with “six clear standards for teacher performance, based on the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards” and includes “performance criteria for how the standards are to be met and descriptive examples of observable teaching behaviors.”

You can read the standards in the article. It’s refreshing to see that every one of them begins with the word, “Teachers.”

There’s more to like in the explanation of the process that teachers and administrators use to evaluate the program and each other. Teachers and principals are equally represented on a panel that determines if a teacher is effective. There’s an appeals process if a teacher is given a negative recommendation, and the system is based on documentation at every level of evaluation and appeal. This is a far cry from what happens at many public schools, especially here in New Jersey, where many teachers are observed once or twice per year and documentation is cursory, general or incomplete.

In the end, it’s the words the participants use to describe the process that show how effective the program can be. Here are some examples:

“It wouldn’t work without the level of trust we have here,” MCEA president Doug Prouty told the NY Times.

“(G)ood teaching is nurtured in a school and in a school system culture that values constant feedback, analysis, and refinement of the quality of teaching.”

While the system is spelled out in detail, what really makes it possible is the level of trust and cooperation that grew out of years of developing a collaborative approach to issues of teacher quality.

In Maryland, they seem to be on the right track.

In New Jersey, we might be moving in that direction.

On December 1, State Senator Barbara Buono introduced two education bills. The first would establish a teacher residency program to replace the present student teaching requirement.

Under the bill, all fourth-year students would be placed in a school district five days per week for a full-semester under the supervision of a district mentor teacher. The students would also take a seminar course during this period that provides a collaborative learning experience and peer discussion with other residency students and with faculty.

The bill would also create teacher mentor positions in each school district. These master teachers would then serve to introduce the teacher residents into the profession over the course of the full semester. It would be a collaborative program and would recognize excellent teachers.

The second bill would require each school district to develop a set of standards by which all teachers would be evaluated, by both peers and principals, based on district curriculum standards. They would be observed four times per year and be required to submit a portfolio of their work. There is no mention of standardized tests, and this process would be determined through collective bargaining. Those are good things. The bill also mentions collaboration and cooperation. Senator Buono’s bills will not be the final word on these issues, but they are a welcome addition to the debate.

The current reform models that rely on threats and stare-downs might make for exciting videos, but they are terrible public policy. If more Governors and Commissioners of Education would commit to the cooperative, collaborative ethic, they would find that educators would more readily commit to implementing bold reforms enthusiastically.

For more bold, enthusiastic ideas, visit facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives

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