Tag: who won

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Donald Trump Politics

Hillary Beats Trump Again in Second Presidential Debate

CNN’s David Gergen is usually very measured in his interpretation of political matters. So after the second presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Gergen offered his take on who won the debate. He concluded that Trump’s chances of winning the White House “evaporated Sunday night.”

In other words, Trump lost…again!

Whatever chance Donald Trump still had of capturing the White House largely evaporated Sunday night in his second debate with Hillary Clinton.
Coming off the worst 10 days of any campaign in recent history, Trump desperately needed a win in order to reverse his slide in the polls. He was indeed better than in the first debate and she was not as commanding. Even so, he blew his opportunity for victory in the first 20 minutes and could never fully recover. CNN’s poll found that by 57-34%, a majority of voters watching them thought she got the best of him.
His loss came through a series of bizarre moments. The first was his surprise pre-debate appearance with four female accusers of Bill Clinton. While a case can be made for re-hearing their claims of long ago, the event seemed like a stunt and Trump never made real use of it in the debate.
But more damning still was the way he handled the disgusting video from 11 years ago in which he made vulgar sexual remarks. Trump could possibly have achieved a measure of forgiveness if he had issued a sincere, thoughtful apology about his past as well as some ugly incidents in this campaign. But his apology was limited in scope, seemed slightly dismissive, and went off track when he mixed ISIS into the conversation.
Categories
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

The Second Presidential Debate – The Polls – – Who Won?

Democrats have a lot of reasons to feel good this morning. First the debate “snap polls:”

The CBS insta-poll gives the win to Obama, 37%-30%. CNN’s “scientific” poll gives it to Obama, 46%-39%. A Battleground poll of swing states gives Obama a bigger win, 53%-38%. And an online poll by Google Consumer Surveys gave Obama his biggest win of all, 48%-31%.

And that CNN poll likely understates the win:

The sample of debate watchers was EIGHT points more Republican than the general public, per CNN polling. So even this heavily GOP group gave the victory to Obama.

Finally and most importantly, time is (finally) running out. The third debate is the least likely one to move the polls since it is about foreign policy and both candidates are likely to make sure they don’t make the mistakes of the first two debates. President Obama will get a bounce over the next week that will put him up 2-3 points and then regress to a 1-2 point lead. Which is where most experts predicted the race would end up. Romney is almost out of time.

H/t Alan

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics presidential

Best Debate I’ve Ever Seen – President Obama Dominated The Stage

WOW! This debate could be where President won his second term!

This post will be very short. I am still at a lost of words on what I just saw on the debate stage. To put it briefly, President Obama totally commanded the stage and Romney was just an innocent bystander who got caught in the Tsunami. As the President took control of the stage and the debate, Mitt Romney looked like a deer caught in the headlights.

There were so many places in the debate where the President called out Romney for the many different positions he’s taken. There were places where the President even called Romney a liar, saying things like, “”very little of what Gov Romney just said is true” and another time in the debate when Mr. Obama said to Candy Crowley, “”Candy, what Gov Romney said just isn’t true!”

The lies told by Mitt Romney were too much for me to keep up with. Personally, I think Romney’s performance tonight amounts to a new record for lying in a debate. But one lie that caught me off guard, one lie I really wasn’t expecting was when Romney said he was now FOR contraception. Yes, the same Mitt Romney who has always been against contraception said in the debate that he was now for it. His words, “I believe that all women should have contraception.”

OMG!

After the first debate, I was shocked. I couldn’t understand how a president so knowledgeable of all the facts, of all his accomplishments, of all the lies his opponent told… I couldn’t understand how the president kept his mouth shut and allowed Romney to run wild. Tonight, the president I expected in Debate #1 showed up for debate #2, and Romney was put in his place… once and for all!

But I did say this was going to be a short post, so I will stop now and allow the video below to speak for itself.

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Barack Obama Politics

Romney’s Bounce Is Over And I Bet You Didn’t Even Notice

Better yet, you probably thought that it started the day or two after the Denver Debacle on October 3. Nope. It actually began on September 26th, was accelerated, and probably prolonged, by the debate, and is now winding down, approximately two weeks later. It was a long bump by historical standards and was immediately preceded by Obama’s long convention bump.

The numbers? Obama was leading by about 50-42% when Romney’s bump began, and it’s ending with Mitt behind by 48-46%, which represents about a 3.5% improvement. That’s an impressive achievement for Mitt, given that he was all but written off by the national media and some influential people in his party. I don’t know why. This race was always going to be close and gaffes and debate horrors were not going to change that dynamic.

As for the electoral college, Mitt has again made gains by taking a lead in North Carolina, but that’s about it. Recent polls have shown him leading in Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire, but he’ll need a more sustained run of polls with him ahead to convince me that he’s got a solid margin. In addition, the electoral math is more difficult for Romney than the president. Even if he wins Ohio, Florida and Virginia, he’ll still need to win one of New Hampshire, Colorado or Iowa. None of those states is even remotely a given for him, with Ohio being the most difficult due to Mitt’s opposition to the auto bailout.

This brings us to Tuesday’s debate. It’s not possible for Mitt to do any better than he was perceived in Denver, mainly because he’s likely to get serious opposition from Obama. The best he can hope for is a small victory, but even that would be a loss because Obama’s performance will probably enthuse the Democrats to the point where the polls begin to rebound, much as they did towards Mitt after the first debate. If Obama is the clear winner, then his numbers should recover more substantially. Where will they land? If that scenario does indeed occur, I could see Obama ahead by 1.5-2.5% by next Sunday.

Speculative? You bet. But I can see it happening.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest

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Paul Ryan Politics

Right Wing Goes Nuts – That Could Only Mean A Win For Joe Biden

The right-wing is having a hissy fit today. Just moments after the vice presidential debate ended, the Republican talkers received their talking-points and hit the waves with one intent –  trying to fool their followers into thinking that Paul Ryan won the debate. Personally I missed the debate because of some other pressing issues I had to deal with, but if the Republican fallout is any indication, Vice President Joe Biden cleaned the stage with Paul Ryan.

This could be one reason Republicans are up in arms today!

Fifty percent of uncommitted voters who tuned into Thursday night’s vice presidential debate in Danville, Ky., said they see Vice President Joe Biden as the winner over Mitt Romney’s GOP running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., according to an instant poll taken by CBS News.

Of the 431 polled immediately following the debate, 31 percent deemed Ryan the winner, and 19 percent said they felt it was a tie. Party-wise it’s a switch from last week’s presidential debate, which uncommitted voters handed easily to Romney over President Obama.

Both Biden and Ryan gained ground on relatability and knowledge. The percentage of voters who say they believe they can relate to Biden spiked from 34 percent before the debate to 55 percent; 48 percent think Ryan is relatable, up from 31 percent before the debate. Meanwhile, after watching the two candidates debate, 85 percent of those polled think Biden is knowledgeable about the issues; 75 percent say that about Ryan.

Ryan, though, faced a loss among voters’ opinions of which candidate would be an effective president, if necessary. Before the debate, he led Biden 45 percent to 39 percent; after the debate, 56 percent of those polled said Biden would be an effective president, with fewer – 49 percent–saying the same about Ryan.

The debate:

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

The Narrative’s Changed, But The Song Remains the Same

Mitt Romney won the debate last night because he projected a presidential attitude, seemed to be more interested, and actually strung together answers in clear sentences. Barack Obama was clearly unprepared and stories about his lack of focus on the debates turned out to be true. The right-wing media is ecstatic. The left is crestfallen. The narrative has changed.

But it doesn’t mean that the election is over, anymore than Romney’s September swoon meant that it was over. This debate allowed Mitt to crawl out of the hole he dug himself with his 47% comments (there, I’ve mentioned it even if the president didn’t) and the overall lack of coherent message on the campaign trail. It’s probable that his debate performance changes his attitude and his crowd count, but let’s think this through a little more specifically.

Romney is still peddling the same Medicare voucher plan, the same tax cuts for the wealthy, the same dangerous foreign policy and the same noxious policies regarding women as he was yesterday afternoon. He’s still the same uninspiring politician he’s been for his entire career, though he will have a more jaunty step for the next week. The policies he proposed last night will not all of a sudden become more popular as Obama advertising will make sure, and Mitt is still against the auto bailout, which means he’ll still likely lose Ohio.

Mitt did himself a great favor in the debate and he was helped by an equal and opposite reaction from the president who did all he could to present a tired, ticked-off image on a day when he could have solidified his advantage and made the other two presidential debates superfluous. Friday’s jobs numbers could be the second half of a one-two punch that should have only been one punch. The press will make more of this because, after all, they need eyes on their websites and dollars in their pockets.

We now have a race, but my sense is that it will just be a closer version of the race we had on Wednesday afternoon. Obama still has the lead and he’ll likely keep it in the swing states that are critical to his reelection. Let the national polls show a Romney bump (and they will). My focus will be on Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. If Wisconsin suddenly turns, then it’s bad news, but I don’t think that will happen. There are two more debates, and if my reading of history is keen, as it sometimes is, Obama can turn himself into the comeback kid who wipes the floor with the rich guy next time they meet.

Yes, the narrative has changed, but the song remains the same.

And really, isn’t it about time you followed me? Go towww.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

My Take On The First Presidential Debate – Who Won?

I’m going to continue doing what I set out to do with this blog – be honest.

Last night’s debate was horrendous. As I write this post now, (and it’s not going to be a long post), I still cannot figure out what was on the President’s mind. This is the man who has been the leader of the free world for the last 4 years. He has met with, and had meetings with other world leaders. He has walked the walk and talked the talk in his commitment to capture and or kill terrorists. This president has dealt with an economy that was on the brink of collapse and because his leadership, he has stabilized this country and we are now on the right track to getting things back to where things should be.

Mr. Obama has faced pressures before and has always found ways to deal with and handle those situations. What happened last night in the debate left me believing that Mr. Obama came to this debate expecting that his title – Mr. President – would be enough.

It wasn’t.

Or maybe the Obama reelection team bought into the pre-debate hype by the media that Romney would be armed with zingers, and they advised the president to stay ‘presidential,’ and stick only with facts. Yes, in the ideal world with a Republican candidate who is grounded in reality, staying presidential would be okay. But Mitt Romney is not grounded in reality. He has decided to run a campaign based on lies and deceit, a fact that was evident from the very first ad his campaign produced where they intentionally misrepresented a quote the president was making.

Faced with such a wishy-washy flip-flopping candidate who changes his position and panders to every single group, it was imperative that Mr. Obama came on stage prepared to show the stark differences between his policies and those of Mr. Romney. It was imperative that he stopped Romney in his tracks when Romney opened his mouth and lied about the $716 billion of waste taken out of Medicare. The president needed to let the American public know each time Romney told a lie. He needed to drive the debate, be aggressive in defending his policies over the last 4 years and in pointing out that Romney’s policies amounts to a trust, wait and see con game. The president of the United States needed to be strong. He had to be assertive.

But instead I sat in my living room like millions of Americans nationwide and watched a dejected man on stage. I watched Mr. Obama – the man who holds the most powerful position in the free world – hang his head, refusing to look Mr. Romney in the face. And I watched in amazement as Mr. Romney directed the flow of the debate, lying at every turn, going unchallenged.

After the debate, Al Sharpton from MSNBC was heard taking a more optimistic view of the President’s performance. Sharpton said that the way the president allowed Romney to dominate the debate was masterful, because the positions Romney adopted last night “are not positions he preached in his campaign.” These new positions Sharpton concluded, will be more ammunition for fact-checkers and Democrats who will now be able to once again, point out the fact that Romney is a flip flopper… a liar… a spineless little man who panders to every group to get elected.

“We have his previous positions on tape!” Sharpton said.

Well I hope Sharpton is right, but I don’t know if I could sit through another lack luster performance by the president.

Will I vote for Mr. Obama in November? Of course I will. I’m not crazy! I agree with the policies he’s put in place so far and I believe Mr. Romney was serious when he said he’s not concerned about the very poor then degraded 47% of Americans as lazy moochers who rely on the government for food and shelter. Yes, Mr. Obama still gets my vote, but I want him to fight in these debates like his reelection depends on it, because it does!

Debate video.

Categories
Citizens United Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics presidential Republican Rick Santorum South Carolina

Apres-Primary Musings: Mitt Can’t Conquer the Mountain

We are not impressed.

If Mitt Romney can’t muster over 40% of the vote in a backyard state against a field of sub-par candidates with extreme positions on the issues, then he’s not ready yet for his curtain call. Yes, it certainly was a good day for Romney, but not as good as his victory speech would indicate.

He’ll win the nomination, but two things are abundantly clear. The first is that Romney still hasn’t galvanized his party as a candidate, and the second is that Republican enthusiasm is turning out to be somewhat of a myth.

Let’s get to the numbers.

Here’s what I said would happen (left) and here’s what actually happened (right):

Romney      38%        39.4%

Paul            19%        22.8%

Huntsman   16%       16.8%

Gingrich      11%         9.4%

Santorum    10%         9.3%

Roemer         3%         0.4%

Perry             1%          0.7%

As in Iowa, not bad. I seem to have underestimated Ron Paul’s reliable support and overestimated Buddy Roemer’s, but I don’t think I was alone.

If present reports are true, all the candidates are moving on to South Carolina where the PAC-men will be gobbling up money and air time in their quest for Romney’s scraps. This will be Citizens United writ not on the main stage, but as regional summer stock theater. Millions of dollars that otherwise could be spent on more significant pursuits will be sucked down the rabbit hole of ego and vanity. That’s the new democracy at work, and we’d all better get used to it because when the campaign moves to Broadway in the fall, there’s going to be an ad war like no other.

South Carolina is the last stand for Huntsman, Santorum and Perry to be sure unless any of them pull wild upsets and finish in the top 3, and above 20%. Gingrich could stay in if he’s in the top 3 because he now has PAC money and Paul and his minions will stick around for the duration. Romney can claim the nomination with a dominant performance, over 40%, but 30% will be enough to make him inevitable.

Follow the march to the south at facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives.

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