Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

What Do Wisconsin, Maryland and DC Have in Common?

They are examples of places where Mitt Romney will win primaries, but will lose to President Obama in the fall.

For people who follow politics, there’s a certain heaviness to the Republican race for delegates. Most prominent Republicans, including such conservatives as Marco Rubio, have endorsed Romney, and the trading markets are assuming that he’ll win the nomination. Is this news? No. But we have to write something every few hours, so why not make it interesting?

Even Mitt has turned his attention to Obama and is basically ignoring Santorum. Newt’s so far out of it that the press isn’t even making a big deal out of the fact that he hasn’t made a formal announcement. It’s very tidy. Just like the GOP wanted it in the first place.

But once again, some of the biggest states will have little influence on the contest. The story might have been different if California, New York, Texas, New Jersey and Pennsylvania had voted much earlier in the process. As it is, they’re afterthoughts. Too bad for the runners-up.

After tomorrow, all eyes will be on the two man race most of us envisioned months ago. Mitt will try to reinvent himself into a likeable everyman and President Obama will continue the Passion Offensive he launched last September. Their success will largely determine which one of them wins in November.

Categories
Domestic Policies trayvon martin

Skittles and Broccoli

Every once in a while, a week comes along that brings clarity and definition to the world and enables us to find meaning in the beautiful things that make up our lives.

Perhaps next week will be such a week.

For the parents of Trayvon Martin, this was a week that saw the world finally notice the tragedy that befell their child. It’s a story that is easily told but terribly difficult to understand:

The circumstances – an unarmed teen carrying Skittles, a gated suburban community and a man with no official authority – along with simmering economic frustrations in the nation’s African-American community turned the death into a social touchstone. Social media, black radio and cable television drove the debate about racial profiling and the state of black males, helping give rise to an indelible image that seems to be everywhere: Trayvon Martin and his hoodie.

It shed light on the Florida Stand Your Ground Law, which essentially allows people with guns to decide who’s a threat and who’s not, and to allow suburban vigilante justice in the guise of neighborhood watch. And as more evidence comes out about what might have happened on that fateful night, more questions are raised. Finally, what about Wrigley, the company that makes Skittles? That’s complicated. Sales are up, but for all the wrong reasons.

As if the Martin story wasn’t complicated enough, this was also the week of health care. Ironic, no?

Enough words have been senselessly killed since Monday in an effort to describe, analyze, parse, interpret, divine, enunciate, explicate and pontificate on what exactly the justices meant, when it’s fairly clear that the conservatives would rather make love to a broccoli stalk than rule the law to be constitutional.

And the broccoli bit is the heart of the problem. Is it just me or did anyone else get the sense that Antonin Scalia didn’t merely complain about having a 2,700 page law to leaf through, he never actually read any of the briefs related to it? How else to explain his repetition of the broccoli conundrum that was standard fare in the mainstream press for the past 6 months? Or his mis-citation of the Cornhusker Kickback, which was troubling enough for a man of his intellect?  I thought the justices were supposed to focus on the law, not repeat the talking points that radiate from all corners of the Cable News/Twitter/Blogosphere Axis.

At least we’ll know the outcome of the health care law at the end of June. After that, President Obama and Mitt Romney can adjust their campaigns and move forward with their lives.

Trayvon Martin’s parents might not get that kind of closure for many months after that. And they’ll always have more questions than answers.

Justice indeed.

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Categories
Politics Repeal

Things I Know – The Health Care Law will be Upheld By the Supreme Court

I know that the Affordable Care Act will be upheld by the Supreme Court.

How do I know this?

Because before it was a good Democratic idea it was a good Republican idea. I’m sure the GOP vetted the law as an alternative to the Clinton health care plan. I’m sure that Mitt Romney and his attorneys vetted their Massachusetts plan before they proposed, passed and signed it. I also know that the Obama Administration is not “rolling the dice” on the law in the months just before the election. They have reasonable, rational motives in doing so because they know that the law, if the court relies on precedent, will be upheld.

I know that the Tim Tebow trade will end up to be a disaster for the Jets, and that the entire nation, Puerto Rico, Guam and American Samoa will enjoy watching the nuclear meltdown that will occur next season.

How do I know this?

The team just signed Mark Sánchez to a contract extension and has now traded for another, more charismatic player who manages to confound the football experts with his unorthodox style and steely determination. The Jets have also said that Tebow will be involved in the offense during the season. What other backup quarterback gets that kind of promise? Answer: A quarterback who will be given every available chance to take the job from the starter. All Mark Sanchez has to do, assuming he keeps his job coming out of training camp, is to throw a couple of interceptions or lead the team to two first half field goals (only) in the season opener, and you can bet that everyone from Billy Graham, Jr. on down to the local church ladies will be calling for his head. And St. Tim will be ready. This won’t be a season; it will be a reality show. As a triumphant Giants fan, I can’t wait.

I know that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for president in 2012. So do you. So does the general media. So does the right wing media. So does Intrade. So do the Vegas odds-makers.

How do I know this?

Mitt is the only rational, reasonable Republican candidate of the bunch. He’s said some gaffey-type things, but most people are either shrugging them off or comparing them to the scary-ee things that Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are saying. Remember your history lessons. The United States doesn’t elect radicals to the highest office in the land. Of course, the Democrats thought Barry Goldwater was a far right kook and the Republicans thought that Walter Mondale was a socialist, but they were both wrong. Mitt’s a moderate who ran a liberal state in a moderate way and achieved some moderate success in Massachusetts. He’s not a religious zealot and he doesn’t have the anger issues that the other candidates have. Of course, how can you be angry when you make about $20 million dollars per year?

These are but three of the things I know. I welcome what you know. If you’re really in the know, you’ll go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Knowledge is power.

Categories
Illinois Mitt Romney Politics

Post-Illinois: Mitt Wins. It’s Over.

That’s it.

Doesn’t matter what happens from here on out. Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee. Rick Santorum will make speeches and say things that only an ultra-conservative will agree with. Newt will write another book about his campaign.

Here’s the skinny:

                  Predicted.              Actual

Romney. 48%                           46.7%

Santorum  31%                        35.0%

Gingrich. 11%                           9.3%

Paul.  9%                                     8.0%

Really. Can we talk about something else now? How about art, Mrs. Robinson?

For more, please go to: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest

Categories
Illinois Mitt Romney Politics

Mitt Be Illin'(ois)

If there ever was a good time for the Romster to win a solid victory, this would be it. And, as luck would have it, he will win the Illinois primary going away. With the latest polling showing him with anywhere from a 10-15 point lead, this one will not be a nail-biter. Neither will the nomination battle. No brokered primary either. I know. I’m no fun. But then again, neither is Mitt.

The GOP has tried to move on from contraception to the economy, but the darn economy keeps improving, car sales are up, jobs are being created and consumer confidence is on the rise. Mitt’s been reduced to saying that he could do a better job with the recovery. Rick’s given up and says the real issue is freedom.

So here’s how it will go down:

Romney            48%

Santorum          31%

Gingrich            11%

Paul                   9%

A convincing win for Romney. More stories about how conservatives aren’t crazy about him. On to Louisiana.

Categories
Alabama Mitt Romney Politics

Post Primary Blues: The GOP’s Gone South “Y’all!”

Rick pulls off the daily double and the race pushes on. I can’t say as I’m terribly surprised but the results certainly were a sharp rebuke to Romney and his claims to be a conservative. Perhaps in the fall, when he’s the nominee, this will help him as moderate voters will determine this election.

The Mississippi Results:

Predict             Survey says!

Gingrich          33%                  31.3%

Romney          32%                  30.3%

Santorum        29%                  32.9%

Paul                 6%                    4.4%

And Alabama

Romney          32%                  29.0%

Gingrich          31%                  29.3%

Santorum        30%                  34.5%

Paul                 6%                    5.0%

The GOP will win these two states in the fall, so no worries there. Newt Gingrich has promised to fight on, but he’s lost any claim to being the conservative alternative to Romney and can only be a spoiler. Santorum can say all he wants about being the nominee, but I don’t see him winning any of the big, less conservative states still to come. If he can manage to pick off a couple (IL, NY, CA), then we’ll talk. My take is that this positions Rick as a possible VP candidate if he has enough delegates and clout to force the issue in Tampa.

I’m sure that recent polls showing president Obama to be vulnerable (again and still) have emboldened conservatives not to settle on a candidate they don’t want. The remaining question is whether they want to go all in for Santorum.

For more, please go to: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Categories
Politics Republican

Polling Report: Special Missibama Muslim Edition

Just when I was going to recognize the modern south and how much attitudes have changed, along comes the story that Republicans in both Alabama (45%) and Mississippi (52%) believe that President Obama is a Muslim.

I try to be nice. I try to keep my focus on politics and public policy. I try to be fair. But really, what can you say about such blatant ignorance, fear and outright hatred? And these Republicans are going to go to the polls tomorrow to have a say in who’s going to run against the president in the fall.

The latest numbers in Mississippi are here. Gingrich is in front by a hair and I expect him to eke out a victory. Alabama’s numbers are here. For the moment, Romney has a slim lead and I think he’ll win.

To the predictions:

First, the state where the majority of GOPers believe Obama to be a Muslim

Gingrich          33%

Romney          32%

Santorum        29%

Paul                 6%

For their slightly less anti-truth neighbors

Romney          32%

Gingrich          31%

Santorum        30%

Paul                 6%

These southern states will vote GOP in the fall, so I don’t see that there’s much fuss about which candidate is more conservative than the others. If Romney wins both states then he can claim a mandate and I would think Gingrich would drop out. If Santorum wins both, he can claim two major victories and renewed strength. Romney will ultimately be the nominee, but a Rick for VP movement is a distinct possibility.

I hope the news outlets let us know who gets the Muslim vote.

Categories
Politics teachers

Q. Are We Not Teachers? The Devolution of Education

We seem to have come to a critical point in the education deform movement. No, that’s not a typo: I don’t mean reform, I mean deform, because the people who want to use unreliable and faulty data to evaluate teachers and deny educators their negotiated due process rights are not reformers and never have been. They are out to twist education from a public responsibility to a privatized option whose purpose is to serve the needs of their wealthy supporters at the expense of unions and educators who know best how the system works and how it can best serve children.

It’s high time that policy makers, including Governors, Commissioners of Education (including ACTING Commissioners) and government officials respect the fact that educators know what works in the classroom and that they need to be intimately involved in the decision-making process. If you don’t include the stakeholders, any efforts at improving education will ultimately fail. We need to be loud and clear about what’s at stake, and to call for real reform that benefits parents, students and teachers. Please join me in expressing your concern about the direction that education reform is taking. We are headed down the wrong path.

Every word in this sentence is a link to an article that details the folly of using student standardized test scores to evaluate teachers. Yet, that’s exactly what the deformers want to do.

If what happened in New York City isn’t scary enough, consider this: Under the Value Added Model, teachers will be distilled down to a number and that number will stay with them for every year in which they teach. If the number is considered good, they’ll be OK, but if that number decreases, be ready for a storm that will make Katrina seem like a drizzle. Parents will want the teacher with the 86 rating, not you and your paltry 78. And just why were you a 92 last year but an 83 this year? It will be bad. Teachers will be two-students-who-ate-lousy-breakfasts-on-test-day away from being the teacher that nobody wants for their child.

In New Jersey,  there’s a bit of controversy over a  proposed teacher tenure bill because it would grandfather in all teachers who are currently working in schools. Never mind that those teachers have already been vetted during their 3 year probationary period. Governor Christie believes that New Jersey’s teachers as failing (even when they’re not) and that the NJEA lies about everything.

For the record, I have no problem with my dues money going to pay for advertisements and political action that calls out a governor who knows next to zilch about teaching or education or reforming or being diplomatic or appropriate or how to be a role model for anyone other than your average bully. And in a delicious irony, our bully-in-chief  signed an anti-bullying law that he refused to pay for and that was declared unconstitutional. Of course, there’s money for Christie’s tax cut proposal, but so far the response has been lukewarm at best.

Right now the deformers have the high ground. We know that the education and teacher bashing model is working because morale among educators has reached a new low. And that’s exactly what our society needs in a world of hyper-competitiveness, where education and skills will be the coin of the realm. Having a teaching staff that knows it’s unappreciated by the various elements who want to undermine public education is a sure fire way to keep American students undereducated for the future. And it’s a terrific strategy for  attracting and keeping the smart, creative, energetic, technologically savvy people we’ll need in education now and in the future.

The time is growing short for educators to take the lead and turn the deform movement into an actual educational reform movement. Get involved and let your voice be heard.

Are we not Teachers?

For more, please go to: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Categories
Politics

Polling Report Double Issue Centerfold: Presidential Race and Super Tuesday Edition

Fans of the blog already know that on the 6th of every month I take a look at the polling for the 2012 presidential election. This month is like Christmas and Hanukkah falling on the same day because today is also Super Tuesday, so I’ve combined the two into one mega look at the race. No, it doesn’t get any better than this.

Obama Job Approval

February was a “what goes around comes around” month. President Obama saw a steady rise in his approval ratings through mid-February, due in large part to the improving economy and the viciousness of the GOP primaries. For the last 10 days, though, he’s come back to earth a bit.  The latest RealClearPolitics Index of his job approval is here. His approval rose from 46.6% to 48.1% and his disapproval numbers also rose slightly from 47.6% to 48%. There seem to be two outliers in the Index: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking, which at one time had Obama +4, now has him at -9, and the Politico/GWU Battleground, which has him +8. Take those two out and smooth the remaining numbers and you have a net plus for the president since February 6.

I suppose you could read the numbers two ways. In one interpretation, he is steadily climbing as he campaigns and runs ads, while in the other he’s in trouble because after 3 years, he still can’t claim a majority of the voters as approving of his performance. Allan Lichtman was sure about Obama’s reelection as far back as two years ago. We’ll see if he’s right about that.

Head-To-Head Match-Ups

My assumption is that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he’s really their only hope. With that in mind, here are the latest numbers in that match-up showing Obama with an overall 49.1%-44.4% lead. This is an improvement over February when his lead was 2%.

The Ballots

The only change in the Electoral College map is that Wisconsin has moved into Obama’s column because of his +10 lead in the latest PPP poll, giving him a lead in states that add up to 227 electoral votes with the Republican at 181. Electionprojection.com has Obama winning 285 electoral votes this year according to their model. We’ll follow them throughout the campaign.

The latest NBC News/Marist poll has Obama beating Romney in both Virginia (+17) and Ohio (+12). If these numbers hold, there are very few scenarios for a Romney victory. If Obama wins Ohio, the assumption is that he’ll win Pennsylvania. Even if Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, that’s not enough. At this point, I would say that NBC’s numbers are a bit optimistic for the Obama campaign. Stay tuned.

Republicans now lead the Generic Congressional Ballot by. 0.2%, but that was before Olympia Snowe announced her retirement from the Senate. The Congressional numbers will fluctuate throughout the spring. When we get definite candidates for each race, it should come into sharper focus.

Super Tuesday

No matter how you slice it, this was a terrible week for the Republican candidates, the party and its message. The fallout from Michigan showed that Mitt Romney’s popularity took a hit. From the article:

The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll gives him a favorability of 33% and an unfavorability of 46%; a recent Politico poll puts his unfavorability above 50%.

Then of course there was the distraction of Rush Limbaugh’s remarks about Sandra Fluke, the ongoing debate about the contraception issue, which lost a Senate vote, Olympia Snowe’s retirement announcement, and the advancement of marriage equality bills in Maryland and Washington. This allowed President Obama to take the high road and appear presidential, which is the last thing the Republicans looked like.

So let’s get to the skinny.

It’s all come down to the delegate count now as Mitt tries to push his way to the magic number of 1,145. He’ll pick up a bundle on Tuesday and will separate himself from the field. I have a suspicion that if he does very well (defined below), GOP operatives will ask Santorum and Gingrich to step aside for the good of the party. Since neither one knows what that is, they might stay in the race.

Here’s a link to the states holding elections and the delegates at stake. Here’s my take on what will happen:

Gingrich wins Georgia. No surprise, doesn’t matter. Extra good day if he also wins Oklahoma and/or Tennessee.

Paul wins Alaska and Idaho.

Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee (barely). If he doesn’t, goodbye.

Romney wins Virginia (the other two aren’t on the ballot, and neither is Rick Perry), Massachusetts, and Vermont. If he can pick off any of Alaska, Idaho or North Dakota, a good night. Tennessee or Oklahoma, a great night. Ohio, a super night. All of the above, lights out.

Which brings us to Ohio. This is the key to today. If Santorum wins, he can damage Romney even more and claim that, since he’ll win Pennsylvania, he should be the nominee (he won’t be). A Romney win ends the game.

Prediction:

Romney            38%

Santorum          35%

Gingrich            15%

Paul                  10%

Romney wins it sooner rather than later. GOP elites breathe easier. You can follow me at:

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Categories
Arizona Mitt Romney Politics presidential Rick Santorum

Mitt Nicks Rick In Mich Mish-Mosh: Four Head to O-HI-O!

Mitt May Win Right To Lose Michigan in the Fall!

Democrats, Pro-Vomit Vote Not Enough For Santorum!

Arizona Goes Romney! Border Remains Calm!

Mitt Romney did almost enough to dispel any lingering doubts that he will be the Republican Party’s nominee for president by defeating Rick Santorum in the all-important Michigan primary yesterday.  Romney crossed the 40% threshold but failed to defeat his chief rival by more than 10%, which would have ended any debate about Romney’s being the GOP standard-bearer. Still, a win is a win, and now the field moves on to Super Tuesday where there is now even a doubt that Newt can win his home state of Georgia.

How did I do with my predictions? Let’s check.

For Arizona:

Prediction                Actual

Romney          43%                         47.3%

Santorum        30%                         26.6%

Gingrich          18%                         16.2%

Paul                  8%                           8.4%

For Michigan:

Romney          39%                          41.1%

Santorum        37%                          37.9%

Paul                12%                          11.6%

Gingrich          10%                           6.5%

All told, not too bad.

So now it’s on to Tuesday Grande, where the big prize will be Ohio and the attack ads will come fast and furious. It’s difficult to fathom what else Mitt and Rick could say that could be any more outrageous than their embarrassing forays into trees, bodily functions, automobile choices, anti-intellectual diatribes and invocations of Satan/Obama (really, have you ever seen them in the same room together?) Interesting.

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Categories
Arizona Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Polling Report: Special Michigan and Arizona Edition

This week’s report begins with a question:

What would you call a candidate who LOST the following primaries: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Texas, New York, Massachusetts, California, Florida and Michigan?


How about, Mr. President.

That’s right. Candidate Barack Obama lost every one of those primaries, and more, in 2008 yet won the nomination. That’s why I’m not getting agitated over the latest results of the Republican race. As I’ve said over and over and over and over, Mitt Romney will be the GOP’s nominee in 2012 even if he loses some big states. Granted, Michigan is different for Mitt; he’s claiming pseudo-residency in the state and has set it up as a make-or-break contest. Obama at least won his home state, Illinois, so the comparison isn’t perfect. But still, the national media’s focus on whether Rick Santorum can win the nomination is a moot point. He can’t, and he won’t. To further muddy the picture, though, I will say that if he does manage to win it, the GOP will have committed hari-kiri.

The past three weeks have seen some extraordinary developments in the Republican Presidential Primaries. Rick Santorum caught fire (and brimstone) as the new, and probably final, conservative darling in the race. Romney made a few gaffes that have certainly hurt him, playing to a near-empty Ford’s Field and citing his wife’s two Cadillacs to name the main ones. What does it all add up to? A contested race that will probably drag on into the spring and even give Newt a chance to win his home state of Georgia.

On to the predictions.

First, in Arizona, the latest polls show that Mitt will win rather handily mainly because Santorum and Gingrich have pretty much conceded him the state. Arizona has a large Mormon population that will easily beat back the large Tea Party contingent at the polls (assuming that the Partiers can rush back from guarding the Mexican border in time to cast votes). Still, I think that Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote to make it convincing. Thusly:

Romney          43%

Santorum        30%

Gingrich          18%

Paul                 8%

In Michigan, things get complicated. In my view, Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote AND win by 10+ points to make a convincing statement. The polls aren’t showing that, but if enough voters decide at the last-minute that Santorum would be a sure loser in November, it could happen. I don’t see it.

What is more likely to happen is that Mitt wins, but by 3 points or fewer and gets below 40%. In that case, Santorum can claim a win-by-losing argument because Romney keeps saying that this is one of his home states (even though most voters don’t see the connection). The conservatives will have made their point and Santorum can then move on to Ohio and perhaps win that primary. He can also assume he’ll win Pennsylvania, which would greatly complicate Mitt’s message about electability.

Prediction:

Romney       39%

Santorum     37%

Paul             12%

Gingrich       10%

The race moves on to Super Tuesday. The national press will continue to talk about a brokered convention, which will not happen.  Romney will eventually be the nominee. Or have I said that already.

For more, please visit  www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest 

Categories
marriage equality Politics

Love Is Natural, Hatred Is Learned

Two alcoholic heterosexuals get married. They produce a child with fetal alcohol syndrome. This marriage has the blessings of both state and church. Two men or two women who want to marry each other, who are upstanding members of their communities and have adopted and raised productive children, are prohibited in most states and allowed civil unions, which are inferior to marriage in fact and in law, in a few.

This is equality under the law?

Marriage equality will be the law of the land sometime in the future but, for most gays and lesbians, justice delayed is justice denied. How can this be? How can a country that promises freedom and civil rights for all of its citizens continue to deny basic rights to a sizable group?

Opponents say that being gay is unnatural and that there’s something inherently wrong with loving someone of the same gender. That’s exactly wrong. Love is one of the most natural processes humans have. You don’t even have to think about it. It just happens from the time we’re born and lasts throughout our life.

Hatred and discrimination, on the other hand, are unnatural. We need to remember that people are not born anti-gay. Discrimination and hatred are learned behaviors and most children learn them from the very adults who claim to be fair, just and responsible. And why are these adults anti-gay? Some are frightened or threatened or jealous or ignorant or all of the above. Some use a rigid cultural definition of what constitutes a family. Some are offended by how other people show their love. Some use a deity as a weapon to threaten and marginalize.

The religious argument strikes me as utter hypocrisy. How can we love the sinner but hate the sin? Isn’t that attitude responsible for sanctioned discrimination and actions against homosexuals? The same goes for the social argument that the right wing peddles. How can the party that lives on freedom and keeping the government out of our lives continue to preach that government should deny marriage equality? Both groups have made the claim that allowing gays to marry would damage heterosexual marriage. In fact, the opposite is true. Marriage has been shown to make families more stable and productive, strengthens commitments to social values, and provides for economic expansion as people make purchases for different stages of life. Gender preference has nothing to do with how we love our family members or how firmly we commit to them.

The more compelling democratic argument is that every adult should be able to marry the person they love, adopt children and be protected by all laws and rights that all other adults have, including economic rights and privileges.  A federal court decision on Wednesday used an employment benefits case to determine that the Defense of Marriage Act was unconstitutional. The decision by U.S. District Court Judge Jeffrey White was unambiguous in its defense of liberty and equality:

“The imposition of subjective moral beliefs of a majority upon a minority cannot provide a justification for the legislation. The obligation of the Court is ‘to define the liberty of all, not to mandate our own moral code,'” White wrote. “Tradition alone, however, cannot form an adequate justification for a law….The ‘ancient lineage” of a classification does not render it legitimate….Instead, the government must have an interest separate and apart from the fact of tradition itself.”

 On February 7th, a panel of the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals found that:

“Proposition 8 (which denied homosexuals the right to marry) served no purpose, and had no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California.”

These courts have it exactly right. Denying citizens their full rights because of who they love is utter nonsense. The history of the United States shows us to be a country of inclusive rights. To have candidates for the highest office in the land proudly proclaim their preference for discrimination, hatred and disdain is obnoxious, offensive and backwards. Marriage equality is on its way. Let’s make it sooner rather than later.

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and Twitter @rigrundfest

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