Author: Robert I. Grundfest

I am a teacher, writer, voice-over artist and rationally opinionated observer of American and international society. While my job is to entertain and engage, my purpose is always to start a conversation.

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Politics

Obama Holds His Ground: Presidential Polling Report

This is getting real. Bad economic numbers last Friday. Bad revised economic numbers last Friday. Bad economic numbers from Europe last week and this. Bad, bad, bad. But bad news is good news for Mitt Romney and his rolling marshmallow review. Mitt has gained in the polls over the past month and he shows no sign of slowing down. Is this the end for Obama and Joe? Will they fall victim to a slow economy and a political opposition that will just do nothing but wait out the year at the expense of working people everywhere?

We have five months to find out. And at some point during those five months, Mitt Romney will slip and stumble and Barack Obama will soar and inspire. On to the numbers.

As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.2% and Romney 45.2 % in the latest RCP average. Considering how bad (bad) Friday’s jobs numbers were, it’s truly remarkable that Obama’s numbers have stayed the same. Even Rasmussen’s poll showed the president rebounding from -5 over the weekend to -1 on Tuesday.Obama’s job approval has taken a hit, but seems to have settled down to a tie in Gallup and -5 (down from -8) on Rasmussen.

These numbers have shifted from last month as Romney has solidified his position as nominee and he got a nice bounce after the far righties left the race. Democrats who wistfully remember all of the gaffes and outrageous comments from Santorum, Cain and Gingrich are wondering where the momentum went?

I’ll tell you.

It went away because Mitt is, in essence a near-right conservative and closet moderate who is not as scary to voters as his Republican compatriots were. Wondering why he’s doing better with women? It’s because he hasn’t had to answer every anti-female utterance from the other nominees. The economy? Never interrupt your opponent when things are going bad for him. Solyndra? Ahh, Solyndra. Just say Solyndra 127 times a day and the world will beat a path to your door. In short, it’s been easy for Mitt over the past 30 days.

Obama, to be honest, has not looked at the top of his game, and the newly energetic conservative media has let him have it. Unemployment up, Solyndra, Bain attacks attacked by Democrats, Solyndra, manufacturing down, Solyndra. The lefty media isn’t helping and fundraising is down.

Through all of this, though, Obama’s numbers are not bad, and if he can weather this storm, he can come back in fine position by the convention.

The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 237-170 (RCP), 257-181, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), and 276-243(Electoral-vote.com). North Carolina has tightened, as have Wisconsin (though exit polls Tuesday showed Obama with a lead over Romney) and Virginia, two states that Obama needs to win, but Missouri and Iowa are still in play which has to make the Romney campaign a bit nervous. A new PPP poll of Florida, taken during and after the jobs numbers were released, shows Obama with a 50-46 lead. Imagine: Obama at 50%! And PPP even overpolled Republicans (FL actual: D=41 R=36 PPP Poll D=41 R=40).

There have been a number of recent articles that discuss which previous year we can compare this election to, such as 1980, 1992 or 2004. The answer? Don’t know. We could have a Romney/Republican blowout if people decide that they just can’t give Obama another four years. We could have a Democratic Senate if polls continue to show their candidates making inroads in Virginia, Massachusetts and Missouri and, if expected, Angus King of Maine wins and caucuses to his left. As of now, the Generic Ballot favors the Republicans, but that will change.

What won’t change?

Attacks, money, Bill Clinton saying silly things.

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Categories
Politics

NBC/Marist Poll Gets It Right

On the heels of last week’s NBC News/Marist polls that underpolled Republicans and made it look as though the president was ahead when he really wasn’t, today’s NBC polls got it pretty much right. That’s good news for Obama in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.

In Nevada, Obama leads Romney by 48%-46%. The real voter breakdown is D=42 R=37 I=21. NBC’s poll was D=40 R=38 I=21. There was a slight underpolling of Democrats, but that’s only better news for Obama.

In Colorado, Obama leads Romney 46%-45%. The actual voter breakdown is D=33 R=35 I=32. NBC’s poll was D=31 R=35 I=34. Almost exactly correct. Nice job NBC!

In Iowa, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%. The real voter breakdown is D=34 R=31 I=35. NBC’s poll was D=34 R=35 I=31. There was a slight overpolling of Republicans, but otherwise the results seem solid.

There has been a great deal of talk about the polling in the presidential election, but 5+ months out, much of the results are not predictive of what will probably happen in November. Yes, Obama is stuck nationally at around 47%, but his approval numbers are close to 50% and he’s leading in most of the states that he needs to win to be reelected. Romney is polling close to the president in the states above and is ahead in Ohio according to a Rasmussen poll out on Thursday.

My sense is that the unemployment numbers for May, out on Friday, will do a great deal to shape the race before the summer. Remember that the June numbers will be released during the July 4 holiday week and July’s numbers come out in August when the Olympics will steal the show and, well, it’ll be August.

June could also be a make or break month for other reasons, including the Wisconsin recall race, and two Supreme Court decisions on health care and immigration. Right now Obama is still the favorite, but that could change quickly depending on these external events.

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Politics

The Truth Behind the Florida Poll

The headline number was Romney 47% Obama 41% in the Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters released today. It’s too bad that the media can’t read a poll effectively or analyze its results.

The search for the relevant numbers requires that you scroll all the way to the bottom of the poll and click on the Demographic Summary link. A Word document will open (and open your mind) and reveal that the pollsters seriously oversampled Independents, and undersampled Democrats. From the survey:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION – Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?                       

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

 Republican                 34%     640

 Democrat                   31      493

 Independent                29      507

 Other/DK/NA                 6       82

First of all, I love the “or what” part of the question. Can’t Quinnipiac come up with other language, such as “or other political party?”

Second, the actual voter registration split in Florida is:

R=36%

D=40%

I=24%

As you can see, Democrats were underpolled to the tune of 9%. True, Republicans were also undersampled, but relative to their actual numbers, not by much. If anything, the oversampling of Independents should be of some concern for Obama, since they are probably the difference in the poll.

Usually Quinnipiac is a solid pollster, but on this one they missed the boat.

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Domestic Policies money Wall Street

Question: Who Wrote the Book of Face?

My wife has given me permission to gloat a bit after I said this about Facebook, and Wal-Mart, by-the-by, yesterday on this very same blog. The reason? Wall Street had a nice day today, but the ‘book fell on its Face, dropping to $34.03, almost $4 from its opening last week. Meanwhile, a real company that makes real products that are really, really popular and, by-the-by, expensive relative to their competition, Apple, climbed 5.8% (%!) to $561.28.

This spells short-term trouble for Facebook and other social networking sites considering going public. Perhaps it’s just the leftover blahs from the past few weeks. Perhaps it’s the lingering blah form the remnants of Recession George. Perhaps this is a blip and the stock will rise commensurate with the hype as the economy improves.

Perhaps, but I don’t think so.

Facebook will never be like Apple or Google until they actually have something to sell that doesn’t involve people checking the box on a privacy policy that prints out at Moby Dick-like length and, by-the-by doesn’t really protect your privacy. They have loads of information, but now have to find a way to sell it in a responsible, green, diversity-friendly way.

I wish them every good luck with that.

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Domestic Policies

Facebook and Wal-Mart: With Friends Like These…

Big business has been in the news recently, and that’s not necessarily a good thing. JPMorganChase lost upwards of $3 billion dollars on hedge trades that should not be legal, but that the bank actively lobbied to protect. Hewlett-Packard is laying off 30,000 employees in an attempt to become more competitive, and in a blow to television networks everywhere, Dish Network has developed a DVR that will automatically skip over commercials. Yes, what you just heard was the spinal shiver of a thousand communications executives. From the article:

Ted Harbert, the chairman of NBC Broadcasting, struck a similar note at his network’s presentation on Monday, calling the Dish feature an insult to the television industry. “Just because technology gives you the ability to do something, does that mean you should? Not always,” he said.

An insult? Hardly. Aren’t we supposed to honor creativity and problem solving? That’s what Mitt Romney says. And he’s destroyed leveraged lots of companies.

Two companies stand out at present: Wal-Mart is in the news for nefarious activities (again) and Facebook just went public. But the stock price, which was supposed to soar, didn’t even get as high as your average Michigan tree (they are the right height, you know). Mark Zuckerberg made a bundle. You probably made $1.28. Though to be fair, a problem at Nasdaq might have had something to do with the price, according to this article. We’ll have to wait until Monday for confirmation.

It’s simply not OK for a company to act as Wal-Mart has acted over the years and expect that simple apologies would wipe away the tainted profits. Wal-Mart denied its employees medical insurance coverage by manipulating hours and schedules. It fought against unionization and continued to pay low wages until protests uncovered its hypocrisy. Some managers even locked in the cleaning staff overnight in an attempt to make sure they squeezed every penny from their labor. Now Wal-Mart is accused of bribery and covering up potential crimes in Mexico (and possible the United States, if this story is correct).

These activities are unacceptable. They were unacceptable when Wal-Mart first practiced them and they are unacceptable now, and any 10-year-old would tell you that people should not treat their employees this way. There is no apology that will sway me otherwise. Yes, Wal-Mart’s prices are low, but the store near me in New Jersey is dirty and I get a dirty feeling just walking into its front door. It’s as if I’m giving up some of my self-respect just by shopping there. So I don’t. I know others who feel the same way.

Facebook is another matter. Now that it’s made some people very, very wealthy, it’s going to be more of a prime target than it already has been. I won’t buy anything from Facebook, I don’t take its recommendations when they pop up on my page, and I really don’t like the new layout I’ve been forced to accept. I love my friends, but I don’t respond to their requests for birthdays or games or school pages because I find the Facebook notice that comes with these invitations, the one that says “this application will have access to all of my information” much too intrusive. Perhaps I wasn’t built for social networking. Perhaps I’m too old to appreciate the ease at which Facebook can improve my life. No matter. Facebook will not see a penny from me.

And that’s the real danger isn’t it? Haven’t we been told that Facebook’s value lies in its collected data? Our likes and dislikes, entertainment preferences and group memberships? We have become a world of sharers, but at some point in the not-too-distant future, I can see the backlash. Facebook will go too far (if they haven’t already) and use our information for purposes that will go beyond the pale. The reaction will be swift and intense. Public pressure will force Facebook and/or Congress to scale back its data mining. Facebook will lose the ability to track our movements, and thus its ability to make money. It will have billions of users, but its stock price will be stuck at $16.

When I think of all the advertising and public relations these companies pay for, you’d think they would pay closer attention to their actions. Perhaps they will adjust and thrive. They’ll just have to do it without my money.

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Categories
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

The Campaign Cometh – Brace Yourself

If anything is clear about the presidential election so far, it’s that nothing is very clear at all. We have reached the first phase of the campaign where the key is for both candidates to define themselves and each other in diametrically opposite terms. Where does the race stand so far?

Both men are winning North Carolina, according to the latest polls. This might have something to do with both of their policy pronouncements concerning marriage equality, which seems to be hurting Obama in some polls, but the long-term trend in the country points decisively towards more people accepting marriage equality. In the end, if most North Carolinians voted to ban marriage equality and Obama just came out in support of it, that leads me to believe that the state might be out of his reach.

Electoral College projections have been fairly consistent so far, with Obama leading 243-170 in RCP (Wisconsin was just moved from Obama back to toss-up), by 303-235 at electionprojection.com and by 284-170 at HuffPost/Pollster. Most of those state polls were taken last month, so let’s see what May’s data shows. Mitt has seen a bump since the primaries ended and that will probably raise his state profiles a bit.

And what about the issues of the day? That depends on the issue. Obviously the economy is the country’s number one concern and my view is that May’s jobs numbers, to be released in June, might be his last opportunity to claim that the employment picture is improving sufficiently to show that the economy is moving in a positive direction. Most people will not pay attention in July and August, although if gas prices drop enough, people might feel better about their prospects for the fall.

Word now is that the GOP is going to press the debt battle over the summer and force the president’s hand on raising the debt ceiling, which really doesn’t need to be done until December. John Boehner believes that this is a winner for his party, but I’m not so sure. Much of this election will also be fought over Medicare and if Obama frames the issue correctly, he can run against any severe cuts the Ryan budget proposes. He can also say that Romney favors the wealthy and the military over health care. If the Supreme Court invalidates the health care law, then Romney will have a freer hand to say he’ll keep the most popular parts of the law (both of them) and make responsible additions once he’s elected.

If the Republicans really want to lose this election though, then running anti-Obama ads focusing on Reverend Jeremiah Wright, as reported in Thursday’s New York Times, is just the way to do it. As a strategy, this might appeal to the far right wing of the party, but these ads will spark a tremendous backlash against Romney. Americans like Barack Obama, but are not terribly pleased with his policies. Going after him personally is exactly the wrong way to defeat him. Plus, I’m sure there will also be ads aimed at his support for marriage equality. Has the Republican Party gone so far right that they think it would benefit them to run a racist, anti-gay campaign? It’s possible, but I’m thinking that cooler heads will prevail and will be able to walk them back from the precipice. Mitt’s already come out against the ads. Let’s hope that’s enough to convince the PAC not to run them.

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Categories
Domestic Policies marriage equality

The Turning Point In Marriage Equality

Mark this day because it represents a turning point in the fight for equality in the United States. The President of the United States has stated his belief that adults who love each other should share in the same civil rights as other adults who love each other. Suddenly, the president’s new campaign slogan, Forward, has new resonance. Under Obama’s leadership, we have the opportunity to move forward towards a future where the guarantees of the 14th Amendment: “nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws” are applied to all citizens.

North Carolina might have just slammed the door on marriage equality and civil unions, but I have no doubt that ultimately that kind of discrimination and denial of rights will be overturned, and they should be. No state, even under the guise of federalism, should be able to hide behind a referendum when it comes to rights. This is why the Founders (you remember the Founders: This is a country about Founders) created a republic. They recognized the mischief inherent in allowing democratic votes on suspect propositions.

And where is Mitt Romney on the issue? Backwards. Mitt doesn’t believe that other people should share in civil rights because he, personally, doesn’t think that gays should have marriage equality. Isn’t that quaint? What other civil rights is Mitt going to deny people because he, personally doesn’t believe in them? I notice that he’s leaving caffeine drinkers alone, for now at least. Be thankful.

Of course, the big question is how this is going to affect the presidential race and more specifically, Obama’s reelection chances now that he’s jumped into the public pool with both feet. (By the way, without civil rights protections, Barack Obama would not have been able to swim in that public pool in North Carolina. Just sayin’.) My sense, and my hope, is that this helps him with the younger people who don’t seem quite as threatened by the idea of two loving adults actually being able to get married and share in all its legal bliss.

I could be wrong, but if I am, it will be because too many American don’t realize that it doesn’t matter who you love, just as it doesn’t matter what religion, race, gender, or creed you call yourself. The genius of this country is that all citizens are guaranteed equal protection. All. No exceptions. That’s something I will gladly fight for.

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Politics

Surf’s Up! The Right Wing’s Gnarly Ride To a Wipeout

It was easy for me to say that the conservative movement would come crashing down this year not once but twice. After all, the GOP primaries were a virtual orgy of anti-women, anti-gay, anti-immigrant and anti-responsible economic policies, so saying that the far right would implode was like shooting fish in a barrel of domestic oil.

Now that we’re in the general election, you’d think the Republicans would want to moderate their stances. Not a chance.

Over the past few days the GOP has managed to crystallize their reactionary agenda against women and college students by questioning President Obama’s commitment to lowering student loan interest rates as a campaign ploy, and then by tying the rate reduction to cuts in health programs that especially benefit women. What a curious move by a party, and nominee, that’s already losing the female vote by a score or more.

With that kind of thinking, you can kind of see the Republicans passing a burka law, then loosening it and claiming to be pro-women.

The party also continues to bash the health care law that is allowing families to cover their children through age 26 and is forcing insurance companies not to drop people with pre-existing conditions.Their argument? That the law is causing health costs to rise. Well, wrong again GOP. Health care spending seem to be slowing,

Mitt Romney is certainly doing his part to lose the race by alienating Latino voters in Florida during the primaries, and then trying to woo them back for the general election. As a famous Republican once said, “How’s that workin’ out for ya?” Not well at all, it seems, due to a combination of the recession, changing health industry habits, and the law itself.

And in case you thought the Republicans were ignorant of history, along comes  Florida GOP Representative Alan West, who famously said that there were between 78 and 81 (curious set of numbers) Communists in the Democratic Party. Obviously, this is intended to lock up the elderly white male vote that’s the only reliable voting population the GOP has left, and to remind us that McCarthyite tactics will never go out of style.

What does this show? That the GOP is moving to the fringe at an alarming rate and is taking a great deal of accepted American values with it. The problem is not with both parties. It’s with an increasingly reactionary Republican Party that will oppose anything Obama says, even if it means opposing its own interests.

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Politics

Primaries In CT, NY, PA, RI, DE: Five Things to Watch Tonight

With the Republican nomination race all but sewn up, here are 5 things to watch tonight.

1. Cougar Town (8:30 ABC)

Why watch: If you love nature shows, this is one for you. Cougars are sleek cats with keen eyes and a devastating first bite. They also run very fast. In their natural habitats they…oh wait, wrong cougars.

2. American Experience: The Crash of 1929 (8:00 PBS)

Why watch: Why indeed? Nothing to see here. Move along citizens.

3. Frontline: Money, Power and Wall Street (9:00 PBS)

Why watch: Really PBS? A double bill? Are you just baiting the Republicans to cut all of your funding when they take power next year? What’s next; Bert and Ernie Occupy Sesame Street?

4. Frozen Planet: The Ends of the Earth ( 9:00 Animal Planet DVR Alert!)

Why watch: Here is the ultimate relaxation program for the GOPer who’s come home after voting. The  show talks about changing habitats, polar extremes and the warming trends that are affecting wildlife without mentioning the causes! It’s guilt free climate change! When Vanessa Berlowitz, the series producer, said in an interview. that scientific theories “would have undermined the strength of an objective documentary, and would then have become utilized by people with political agendas,” you know that Animal Planet is going to get a zillion dollars in the next budget go-round.

5.  Edge of War: Saddam vs. The Ayatollah (10:00 Military Channel)

Why watch: Are you kidding? We love wrestling matches. Especially ones that incite 8-year wars between really bad guys. In this oldie but goodie, the US supports Saddam, but only so we can beat the crap out of him in 20 years. Ahhh, the Reagan-Bush-(Blank)-Bush years.

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Categories
Elections Politics

It’s All About, Like, Like.

Remember when liking something had to do with ice cream or 8th grade crushes? Now the word is everywhere: Facebook, teenage (and increasingly adult) conversations, and now presidential politics.

The latest CNN/ORC International poll shows that President Obama leads Mitt Romney in large part because Americans like the president more, and more American women like Obama a lot more.

The same is true for the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the CBS News/New York Times poll. Nate Silver writes a more expansive article about what likeability/favorability means in the political context and concludes that the issue is cloudy about predicting a winner in the fall. What’s clear, though, is that it’s better to be the person more people like and trust than not.

The polls do serve as warnings for Obama because despite being liked, more Americans are still not pleased with the way he’s handled the economy. The April and May jobs numbers will be key for his reelection prospects because they will either signal an ongoing positive trend of (sluggish) job creation or they’ll show a slowdown or reversal.

If the news is positive, that could create a feeling that we’re finally on the right track out of Recession Terminal and on our way to Job Construction Junction. It would also give Obama a couple of months of leeway if the numbers dip a bit during the summer. If both month’s figures are very weak or negative, that could cement in people’s minds the image that Obama just isn’t going to get it done and that maybe we should give Mitt another chance. Yes, the fall numbers will be important, but both sides would like a head start with their economic arguments before the conventions.

Other measures of the economy are turning positive and lower unemployment in the swing states could trump any negative national news. After all, if there are more jobs in Ohio, Michigan and Florida, those people will not be so concerned about what’s happening in Nevada or Arizona.

Mitt will have the more difficult road because lurking deep within his mind is a collection of embarrassing rich guy things that will surely come out of his (or his wife’s) mouth. He’ll also be in the unenviable position of endorsing lower taxes on the wealthy and cuts to social programs that even Republicans want to stick around, like Medicare, Social Security, public and higher education and health care. And Mr Businessman will need to answer for why he would have allowed tens of thousands of workers to lose their jobs rather than save General Motors, and why any president should have the power to make gas prices go up or down.

Like, wow.

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Categories
Fox News

News Flash! FOX News Poll is Biased!

Stunning news, I’m sure.

On the heels of the ABCNews/Washington Post poll that showed Obama with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney, some analysts were correct to note that the poll oversampled Democrats, which led to a skewing of the numbers. 

The poll breakdown was: 34% Democrats 23% Republicans 34% Independents, which should have shown Obama with a much larger lead given the +11 advantage his party had.

The same can be said for the FOX News Poll which was released yesterday showing Mitt Romney with a 46%-44% lead over Obama, and a -9% deficit for Obama’s job approval rating. The problem for Romney is that he should have been farther ahead given the breakdown of the poll.

FOX used a 40% Democrat 39% Republican 19% Independent population. With a far greater Republican representation in the poll (16% more than ABC/WaPo), Romney should have a greater lead over Obama. They also under-represented Independents, who are usually around 30-33% of the electorate, at a time when other polls are showing Obama with a lead over Romney with those voters.

Given this, the top line number of Romney ahead +2 is good news for the president.

Oh, and be careful with FOX News. They can sometimes lean a bit to the right.

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Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

We Have A Winner

It’s been a long time coming, but we finally have incontrovertible evidence that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for president in 2012. Of course, forward-thinking readers of the Farmer Blog know that this was a foregone conclusion because they read it here, here, here, here, and, oh yeah, here.

Just sayin’

Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich put up a heck of a fight and did more to dent, ding, derail and at times demoralize Romney and his supporters, and for that Obama voters can be eternally grateful. Romney’s comments about trees in Michigan or how many Cadillacs he has also hurt him and planted in people’s minds just how wealthy he is, but I suspect that those independents who will decide the race will forgive him if the economy stalls or he’s able to make the case that Obama doesn’t deserve a second term. The president is already running a spot that highlights Romney’s conservatism in anticipation of Mitt coming back to the center for the general campaign.

For his part, Romney will have difficulty running away from some of the harder right positions he took in the primaries, especially support of the contraception and abortion legislation that has alienated women from the GOP. Winning them back is possible, but it’s always more difficult to do that if women’s attitudes have already hardened. Look for Romney to try to be warmer and fuzzier, but that’s not playing to his strength. Right now he’s about as warm as the Titanic’s iceberg and as fuzzy as a Brillo Pad. And if he says any more rich-guy stuff he’ll be in real trouble.

As challenger, Romney is in a position where he’ll need to remind Americans that times are still bad and he’ll need to hope that they don’t improve or improve so slowly that he can label Obama as inept on the economy. Job growth slowed in March, but as the economy improves, and it is improving, Romney will need to accentuate the negative at a time when he’ll need to project a positive image. Tough to do.

Gas prices are another issue that he’ll use against Obama, but there are signs that prices are peaking at the pumps. Plus, the media is finally catching on to the fact that we are now a net exporter of fuel and are finding sources of energy in places unimaginable 10 years ago. This is also tricky for Romney because he’s essential saying that Obama should fiddle with the free market to lower prices, which is something that runs exactly opposite to the GOP’s free market ideology.

The President has his work cut out for him as well. The right-wing PACs have much more money than his left-wing supporters, and Romney was tremendously successful at using that money, and his, to beat back a zesty challenge from Gingrich and then Santorum, both of whom were running shoestring campaigns. Romney’s message will find some sympathetic ears in the battleground states, and although polls show Obama ahead nationally, that support will weaken somewhat under an onslaught of advertisements and right-wing media messages.

Here are links to analyses of what both Romney and Obama need to do to win. We’ll look at more as the race proceeds.

The latest polls show Obama’s job approval in positive territory and he’s presently in command of the Electoral College. I would certainly expect these numbers to change, but it’s always nice to be in the lead when the campaign starts.

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