Author: Robert I. Grundfest

I am a teacher, writer, voice-over artist and rationally opinionated observer of American and international society. While my job is to entertain and engage, my purpose is always to start a conversation.

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Politics

Mitt’s Bad Trip

If a Democratic strategist adopted an alias and described his vision of Mitt Romney’s trip overseas, it wouldn’t have been better than what’s actually happened. We can give Mitt credit for one bit of truth: He didn’t want his trip to mirror Barack Obama’s overseas adventure in the summer of 2008, which saw oversized crowds giving him thunderous ovations, and Mitt’s episode certainly didn’t. Remember that the McCain camp’s only response was that the US didn’t need a rock star president? To solidify that aspiration, McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate where she became, you know the answer, a rock star.

Romney’s trip appetizer as it turned out, was his disparaging remark about the London Olympics and that’s what 99% (oh, that 99%) of the world’s viewer’s will remember of the Olympics. Will the games lose money? Surely. Will there be empty seats, fraudulent tickets and missed buses? Yes. Will it matter to those watching on TV? Not at all. What will matter, and has rightfully gained all the headlines, is that Romney missed a free opportunity to act statesmanlike, responsible, upbeat, friendly and most important, presidential.

He snuffed it badly.

Then it was on to Israel for the main course, which was a full-blown endorsement of the most contentious issues facing the Israeli’s and Palestinians. Mitt called Jerusalem the “capital of Israel,” even though its a divided city and said that the real reason Palestine is behind Israel is because of Israel’s culture. The Jerusalem line is one that many American politicians use to galvanize Jewish support for their candidacies, but the US is not going to unilaterally or bilaterally with Israel, decide that city’s status. No Palestinian politician will agree to it and the larger Muslim Middle East will fight to the death to preserve and defend its holy sites against an Israeli assumption of Jerusalem. It’s the culture remark that tells us more about Romney than we probably want to know.

How much does culture determine a people’s success or failure? In the United States, culture has been used both historically and currently to explain why African-Americans live in poverty or have a stunningly high rate of single-parent families or a high obesity rate or why they want to live in segregated communities, not to mention that they made good slaves and like to eat certain foods. Likewise, the culture argument has been used to paint Jews, Irish, Italians, Poles, Latinos, Asians (with and without regional breakdowns) and the LGBT community as… well, you probably know the stereotypes. All of them are false. All of them are ugly. All of them have been used to discriminate against and paint groups as “un-American” and “dangerous.”

Onto that pile of malodorous claptrap comes the well-shod foot of the presumed Republican nominee.

“Culture makes all the difference. Culture makes all the difference,” Romney said, repeating the conclusion he drew from the book, by David Landes. “And as I come here and I look out over this city and consider the accomplishments of the people of this nation, I recognize the power of at least culture and a few other things.”

Thus, if culture makes all the difference, then it must mean that Palestinians want to live in their present dangerous, fetid, unsettled, poverty-stricken land. If they had a different culture, then they wouldn’t. Never mind the politics, the sanctions, the wall, trade embargoes and blowing up the houses of relatives who are suspected or convicted of being terrorists. No, it’s all culture.

Now, don’t get me wrong here. I’m Jewish. I support Israel 100% and believe that its existence is vital to the region and the world. But I’m not going to chalk up Israel’s economic vitality and thriving society to culture alone or as the most important factor in its success.

Israel has a terrific friend in the United States, and we’re in a position to funnel billions of dollars in aid to its government and provide a likewise amount in weapons and defense. Much of the Middle East was supported by the Soviets during the Cold War, and when the USSR collapsed, so did many of those country’s economies. Add in the rise of Islamic terrorism and you have a situation where many people weren’t even able to make a cultural choice for their country. It was made for them by a ruling elite (Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) or a religious movement that had more guns than anyone else (Afghanistan, Iran, the PLO).

And yet, to Romney, it’s culture that is the main determinant of a country’s success. That strikes me as condescending, discriminatory and wrong. It’s convenient to blame culture because then you get to define the elements of that culture. So Palestinians are deficient and Israelis are superior. In Syria, Alawites must be superior because they have the government and the weapons, but if Assad losses, that must mean that the rebels and their concomitant groups are superior. Countries that receive enough rainfall to water their crops must have superior cultures, while arid areas must be deficient. OK, you get the point (and you most likely did 3 paragraphs ago).

The desert was light and fluffy, courtesy of Romney’s staff in Poland that was probably upset at all of those inconvenient questions about his trip, so they said some naughty things. But the damage has been done. Romney had hoped to make this trip about his commander-in-chief credentials and it became about everything but that. If these were isolated events, we could forgive Mitt, but with all of the other silly things Romney has said during the campaign, we need to begin worrying that he would damage more than his campaign. That’s something we truly cannot afford.

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Categories
Politics

Presidential Polling: Obama, Romney Will Win, Lose

The polling in the presidential race over the past week has led to some interesting analysis, and depending upon your view of the numbers both candidates can claim to be winning, which also means that both are losing.

The latest RealClearPolitics composite shows the president with a small lead, but his aggregate score of 46.4 is rather low for an incumbent and gives Mitt Romney many opportunities to catch and surpass him. A case in point is an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday showing Mr. Obama with a 49-43% lead. The problem is that the poll oversamples Democrats by 11 points, 46-35%. My sense is that Democrats will not turn out in November in those numbers, so the poll is not as representative as it first appears. The other issue is that the poll uses registered voters (RV) as opposed to likely voters (LV), which at this point in the campaign might be worthless.

Another poll released on Tuesday by PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU shows the race tied at 46%, which would be great news for Romney if not for some troubling poll internals. First, it assumes that Romney will attract 17% of the African-American vote and 39% of the Latino vote. By November, that might be possible, but other polls show President Obama garnering support from those groups that approaches 80-90%, so this poll might be a bit optimistic. Further, the poll oversamples Democrats by 7%, which, again, is possible, but it also shows that 32% of respondents identify themselves at members of the Tea Party. That’s high. Finally, this is an RV poll using automated technology and did not call cell phones. All of this adds up to a poll that has a lot of holes in it for both sides to peek through a spin as they please.

The national tracking polls give us little to go on, with Rasmussen giving Romney a 1 point lead and Gallup giving that same lead to Obama.

The real action is with state polls, and for the most part these have been good news for the president. A Rasmussen poll of Michigan gives Obama a 48-42% lead using likely voters, and a Survey USA/KSTP poll  of likely voters in Minnesota has Obama up 46-40%. Good news for Obama, but it shows a decline in his support from previous Minnesota polls which could be a signal of slippage or statistical noise. Your choice, it seems, depending upon which way you lean. A SurveyUSA poll of Florida using likely voters has the president with a 48-43% lead, but the same release showed Republican Senate candidate Connie Mack leading Democrat Bill Nelson by 48-42%. That kind of ticket splitting doesn’t make sense, so we’ll need another Florida poll to sort that out.

There has also been some considerable punditry about where this race is heading despite the polling. Two schools of thought seem to be controlling the debate. One says that the negative ads that Obama is running in swing states, combined with an improving economy in those states, will lead to his reelection. The other thought is that Obama has spent almost $100 million dollars on negative ads and only has a small lead on Romney and no poll has him at 50% or above on the national level (some state polls do have both candidates with sizable leads depending on the state). Both camps are looking for any significant movement in the polls, but won’t likely see much until mid-August when Romney unveils his pick for Vice president and the conventions get under way in earnest.

Of course, it’s the states that matter most in our electoral system and Obama will want to lock down as many of his 2008 wins as possible, and the above discussion suggests that he’s moving in that direction. Still, polls are close in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina (where Romney leads) and Pennsylvania. This is where the election will be won or lost and Romney has yet to advertise seriously in any of those states (he can’t until after the GOP convention).

Stay tuned for more as the polls are released.

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Categories
Politics

Is The Colorado Massacre What The Framers Of The Constitution Had In Mind?

I have a proposition for anyone who thinks that our state and national gun laws make sense and/or adhere to the legal intent of the Second Amendment. Wake up Thomas Jefferson, John (and Sam if you’d like) Adams, Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, George Washington and any other member of the founding class not named Aaron Burr. Give them a week or so to acclimate themselves to the modern-day United States, and then ask them if this is what they had in mind when they debated and wrote the Constitution: 

Unhindered by federal background checks or government oversight, the 24-year-old man accused of killing a dozen people inside a Colorado movie theater was able to build what the police called a 6,000-round arsenal legally and easily over the Internet, exploiting what critics call a virtual absence of any laws regulating ammunition sales.

With a few keystrokes, the suspect, James E. Holmes, ordered 3,000 rounds of handgun ammunition, 3,000 rounds for an assault rifle and 350 shells for a 12-gauge shotgun — an amount of firepower that costs roughly $3,000 at the online sites — in the four months before the shooting, according to the police. It was pretty much as easy as ordering a book from Amazon.

He also bought bulletproof vests and other tactical gear, and a high-capacity “drum magazine” large enough to hold 100 rounds and capable of firing 50 or 60 rounds per minute — a purchase that would have been restricted under proposed legislation that has been stalled in Washington for more than a year.

I didn’t think so either

With all due respect to the current Supreme Court, which ruled in the case, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA et al. v. HELLER, (No. 07-290) 478 F. 3d 370, affirmed,  that possessing a handgun is an individual right (and in the process overturned two centuries of precedent), the framers could not have seen this development. They were rational, reasonable men. They knew that freedom and liberty were just and correct goals, but that they had limits.

Tell that to the NRA.

I support the NRA’s existence and even most of its goals. We do have a right to a well-regulated (there’s a dormant phrase) militia and people do have a right to hunt and protect themselves. But what James Holmes amassed was not meant for hunting, protection or self-defense. He planned and carried out a massacre of innocent people at a time when they were relaxed and vulnerable. There are clearly lots of things wrong with him that society can’t anticipate or cure. He had a fairly clear record and was a brilliant student. Ominous music didn’t play when he entered a room. But did he have the right to those guns? Is that what the Second Amendment protects? I think not.

After the shootings at Virginia Tech, there were many gun rights advocates who suggested that the answer to the problem was more guns. They said that if students and faculty members were armed, they could shoot the shooter and limit the carnage. That debate has been reignited. Is this the kind of society we want to live in? Where anyone (after background check and safety course) can carry a concealed weapon anywhere? Do more guns equal less violence?

Anyone hunting for a political debate on this issue will go hungry until at least November 7 because gun rights advocates are already suspicious of President Obama, and Mitt Romney doesn’t want to say anything provocative or alienate his base. Meanwhile, gun control politicians such as Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York continue to press the issue. Honestly, I’d feel safer in a midtown Manhattan movie theater than in a multiplex in a state with fewer gun laws. Call me crazy.

But back to the framers.

I understand that they feared a tyrannical national government that would encroach on people’s liberties, so they included an amendment that left to the states the right to have its citizen’s armed. I get that. What they didn’t intend was that citizens would have free reign to arm themselves to the teeth with weapons that threatened the public order. They would have drawn a line at Holmes’s arsenal because it’s detached from the intent of the amendment.

We have limits on speech, religion and state’s rights. It’s only logical that we look at the totality of our gun laws and ask ourselves if they adequately protect us from people who seek to do us harm. At this moment, the answer is no.

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Categories
Barack Obama Politics

Registered and Likely: A Tale of Two Voters

A number of polls have been released in the past few days that continue to show the presidential race to be very close. What’s worth discussing at this point is the difference between polls that measure registered voters (RV) and those that have switched over to likely voter (LV) models. There’s a terrific article by Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost/Pollster that discusses this issue and he comes to some interesting, and ultimately unsatisfying conclusions. From the article:

The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now?

The answer, in part:

These “measures of engagement and intention to vote are useful as indicators of likely turnout on the aggregate level” at this stage in the campaign,” Pew Research associate research director Michael Dimock explained to The Huffington Post in June, “but they are only loosely predictors of whether an individual is or is not likely to vote this November.”

“As we get closer to Election Day,” he added, “particularly after the conventions and into the debate season — these indicators become stronger.”

With this in mind, let’s take a look at some recent polls that use LV models. Purple Strategies released a number of swing state polls showing Obama leading in Ohio (+3), Virginia (+2) and Colorado (+1) and Romney leading in Florida (+3). All of these results are within the margin of error and seem to suggest that Obama does well in states where he polls well with women and lags where men and independents do not support him. The Florida results are also in line with a Mason-Dixon poll that also uses an LV model and shows Obama with a 1 point advantage. Likewise, a new Rasmussen poll of Virginia also shows Obama with a small lead of 47-46%.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll uses an LV model and shows Romney with a 1 point lead today, within the margin of error.

If it’s true that Republicans tend to do better with LV models, then we can assume that Obama is truly ahead in the states where he leads and that Romney will need to move the dials a bit to overtake him.

On the RV side, a new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey gives Obama a 49%-38% lead while slightly oversampling Republicans. New Jersey is D 33/R 20/I 47 while the poll was D 34/R 24/ I 37.

Presumably, even if Quinnipiac went to an LV screen, Romney would not be within threatening distance of the president. My view is that New Jersey will remain blue this November.

A PPP Poll of Iowa has Obama leading by 48-43% with a D 35/ R 34/ I 30 split, when in reality, Iowa breaks D 31/ R 32/ I 37. PPP, which has a Democratic leaning house effect, has also slightly underpolled Republicans and overpolled Democrats. This leads me to believe that Iowa will probably lean Romney once polls move to an LV model.

At this point in the campaign, using likely voter models do not seem to be diverging a great deal from polls that use registered voters. As we get closer to the campaign’s major events, that will change. Romney has yet to choose a running mate, and that will help his numbers. The conventions will also provide major bumps for both candidates, as will the results of the first televised debate. If voters are settling in on one candidate, that will become evident by the middle of September, and as long as respondents tell the truth about their voting habits (what is the percentage of people who lie about such things?) we’ll get a fairly accurate view of any election trends.

Right now? Enjoy the summer, baseball and the Olympics.

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Categories
Mitt Romney New Jersey Politics

We’ve Had It Up To Here With The Chris Christie Antics

Tired of the playground brawl that is the presidential election? Does the thought of two wonky, somewhat unpopular guys playing nyah-nyah get you down? Well, there’s always the drama created by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

But now that’s getting old too.

Yes, it seems as though the GOP’s darling is playing a little thinner these days and his antics don’t carry quite the same weight as they did eight months ago when he was denying himself, and the poor old United States, a run for the presidency.

For the record, Chris Christie will not be Mitt Romney’s running mate, nor will he be the Republican Party’s candidate for president any time soon… if ever. He might be a featured speaker at the GOP convention or get a cabinet post in a Romney administration and leave the frustrations of Trenton behind, but my sense is that he’d get bored being one of the lesser cabinet members and he could conceivably get us into some kind of war if offered State, Defense or Trade Representative. Secretary of Education?

 

Transportation? Why, use a helicopter to get around the traffic.

I’ve always disliked the stereotype of a “New Jersey attitude” and believe it to be harmful to the state, but even I won’t deny that Christie does exude a certain Garden State brusqueness. The problem is that it’s getting old here. A few months on the road and you’d see video of people with their mouths agape and eyes aghast at the man. Is he still popular with the base? No doubt. But the rest of the country has some manners, and the governor has shown that at critical times, he doesn’t.

Even worse, if Romney doesn’t win in November, then Christie might get tagged as a loser for supporting him. That would seriously damage his aura.

Don’t get me wrong. Christie can point to some significant legislative accomplishments including a 2% cap on municipal spending and the public worker pension and benefits bill that makes teachers, police and firefighters pay more while allowing him to delay full pension payments to the state. And rumor has it that he’s about to sign a teacher tenure reform bill that streamlines the process of firing an ineffective teacher, but not after two negative evaluations. That he was able to get the New Jersey Education Association [NJEA] to the table on tenure is a win for him, but it’s only a small part of what he wanted to accomplish and he’s frustrated. The suburbs are pushing back on Charter Schools, and the legislature will not give him that tax cut that is the gold standard of every Republican lawmaker looking to win national acclaim.

The problem is that the Democrats will continue to hold the legislature even if Christie wins reelection in 2013. What fun would that be? And how many more YouTube videos can you make berating retired public workers, soldiers and lefties who question his policies? (No, I will not provide links to those videos, but you can find them easily enough.)

So in this summer of discontent, the good governor has some decisions to make. None of them are easy, but all will have long-term impacts on his career. I expect that he will carry on as he has been because what he’s done so far is not an act. It’s who he is. And that might be the biggest problem of them all.

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Categories
Politics

What’s At Stake

OK lefties, let’s face some serious reality. The unemployment picture is probably not going to improve much between now and the election and Congress is certainly not going to pass any landmark law that’s going to help either the jobs picture, the debt, social programs or the environment.

At this point in the election cycle, many people will be making up their minds about whether the president deserves a second term or whether to give someone else a chance. These people are not paying attention to the election at the same level that we are and many of them won’t care about the GOP’s policies that might negatively impact them. They will only see that the country is going in the wrong direction.

That’s where we must step in. Begin now to make sure that your wavering friends and neighbors know the consequences of electing Republicans to all three branches of the government, and giving them free reign to enact their tax-cutting, social program-starving, feed-the-rich diet program they’ve promised America. Posters, bumper stickers and, yes, social media posts are a nice way to reach people, but the best is through one-to-one contact. Be friendly. Try to educate and explain as opposed to being strident and oppositional. I know it’s difficult given the passion you feel, but most people just want to get information and go on with their day.

This is a winnable election against a much-less-than-inspiring opponent, but the Republicans will have more money to spend and we know that they spare no penny, fact or anti-fact to make sure that their message gets out. We need to fight that penny for penny and fact for fact.

Start now. Fight hard. Be persistent. Tell the truth. Smile. We only have until November 6, but I believe that we, and the country, will win.

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Categories
Politics

Presidential Polling Report for July 6th – President Obama vs Flip Romney

This is a double numbers day, with both a polling report and the release of the jobs numbers for June. There are only four months to go before the election, the focus on the economy has already been intense, and the fallout from the ACA decision is only complicating matters.Looking for clarity? Consult the I Ching.
How the jobs report will impact the election will take time to sort out.

Meanwhile, the polling numbers have moved in the president’s direction over the past month, slowing a trend towards Romney that had existed in May and early June. The big picture would seem to be working against the president because the economy is still slow, but Romney has evidently caught John Kerry disease, what with his recent vacation pictures and saying that students should get as much as education they can afford. He’s going to have to stop the rich guy stuff if he wants to win.

As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.0% support and Romney 44.4% according to the latest RCP average. Obama’s job approval has taken a hit, and he’s underwater in most polls, but that doesn’t seem to have affected his overall numbers. Yet, the truth is that most people, and specifically most independents, aren’t paying attention to the election and won’t until the early fall. Right now its people like you and me who are fretting over every poll and uttered word that comes out of each campaign. For most other people, the election will take a back seat to finding a job, baseball, vacations, the Olympics, and most daily activities.

The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 221-181 (RCP), 240-191, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), 326-212(Electoral-vote.com) and 217-206 (New York Times).North Carolina has moved to Romney’s column for now and it will take a big turnout effort by Obama to repeat his 2008 victory.

Ohio has moved towards the president, influenced mainly by a late June Quinnipiac poll that has Obama +9. The president is also presently holding on toFlorida and Virginia, but those leads are tenuous and if the jobs numbers are very bad, watch for those states to show some movement away from Obama. I still expect the president to win Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he’ll need to spend resources in each of those states this summer. Romney will force Obama to defend Wisconsin and Michigan for now, and if the polls remain close in those two states it will mean trouble for Democrats.

Protocol requires that I have a paragraph that uses hedge words to keep you interested, so here goes – Romney was having a good month until his campaign began to send some mixed messages and then he completely botched his response to the health care case. That’s led to a conservative backlash from the Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch. Still, for as bad a month as he’s had, he’s still in the race and independents, who are certainly not enamored of the president, might decide that the country needs a change. Obama has momentum now, but the long-term trends could support Mitt. It’s probably safe to assume that we’ve got a fight on our hands.

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Categories
Immigration Immigration Reform Politics

Tough Week For The Right

Remember the beginning of June? Lousy jobs numbers, Obama’s muddled message and the popular assumption that the president was going to lose court cases on immigration and health care? Hope and change came quickly and it’s the Republicans who are back on their heels. For now.

Not only was the Supreme Court’s health care decision a deflating coda to the term that also saw most of Arizona’s immigration law struck down (though the right can still claim a victory over checking papers), the news that Chief Justice Roberts actually changed his decision is proving to be too much on the rightward flank. Never mind  that the court struck at the heart of the left wing’s argument that the Commerce Clause allows Congress to require people to buy health care, or that the states would lose all of their Medicaid funds if they don’t comply with ACA. That turncoat Roberts voted to uphold the law!

What’s worse is that the Republican message machine went into overdrive, using the court’s ruling to call Obama a taxer gone crazy, only to have Mitt Romney say that it’s not a tax. Conservatives already suspicious about Mitt’s devotion to their cause will turn even redder over that.

The polls are not being any kinder to Romney as support for the health care law rose after the decision, though a majority still do not support it. The silver lining is that the GOP base is fired up big time and that could pay dividends in November.

But Mitt is not the only Republican facing headwinds. Chris Christie called a special session of the New Jersey Legislature on Monday to get the Democrats to support his proposed tax cut, but to no avail. He even tried to make some room in the budget by line item vetoing $650 million dollars worth of social programs that serve women and children, but those darn lefties wouldn’t budge. 

This is but one week in a long campaign, but the GOP was banking on a health care win to bolster their summer message. It might actually work to their advantage to have the ruling go against them because their fundraising has increased and Obama is still polling below 50% in most surveys. Still, I think they saw a different scenario and Mitt’s going off message will not help. More fireworks for the fourth of July.

Ain’t this a great country?

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Categories
Domestic Policies ObamaCare

The Health of the Nation

Years from now, will you remember where you were and what you were doing when the Supreme Court issued its ruling in the Affordable Care case? It was that important and it seemed as though just about everybody was following it like a World Series game. Participatory democracy gets no better than that.

Of course there were the obvious glitches, such as CNN and FOX getting the story wrong at first. You’d think that after waiting three months for the decision, they could have waited an extra 3 minutes for their experts to parse the details. Then there’s the story that talks about a “jaw-dropping switch,” meaning Chief Justice John Robert’s joining the four liberals on the court to uphold the law. This completely unexpected move is only unexpected if you happened to buy into the narrative that the law, or at least the mandate, was toast because, well, the media and the Intrade market said it was.

Even better was the comeuppance of the ultra-smug conservative media that was absolutely sure that they had this case sewn up as soon as Don Verilli was done speaking. That he’s been vindicated (need free registration to read this link) in both the health care and immigration cases speaks volumes about what people don’t know about what passes muster in court arguments.

The big questions, though, are obviously political. In terms of policy, Obama has his base-energizing victory and a policy he now has to defend with gusto, something that’s been missing since the bill was passed. Polls have shown that the mandate is still unpopular, but other aspects of the bill have support. It’s time for the administration to start selling this hard and in earnest. More Americans will have health insurance, seniors will no longer have to tolerate the doughnut hole in their Medicare prescription coverage, and those with preexisting conditions will now be covered. Many changes have already taken effect. More states will also need to set up exchanges to help people find insurance.

As for Mitt Romney, he’s already addressed the court’s decision with a full-throated call for repeal, calling the law a violation of our freedoms and bad for the economy. His problem is that today the court also indirectly validated the Massachusetts health care law that Romney championed as governor. And remember that the mandate was originally a Republican idea meant to provide an alternative to the Clinton health care plan of the early ’90. So for Mitt, this decision means that he has to run even harder against one of the signature accomplishments of his political career. The good news for him is that his base is also fired up because of today’s decision. The bad news is that he’s going to run against the whole law, even the parts that people like, and he doesn’t have an alternative to the clear problem of the uninsured and the very sick except to say that the magic of the marketplace will cure their ills. That’s a tough sell.

The other political issue is the election horse race. Obama’s poll numbers have been improving for the past week, both nationally and in several swing states. There are some states that Obama needs to win that are now considered tossups, which is better news for Romney, but the trend is toward Obama. The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls will give us some idea of the effect of today’s ruling, so I’ll check back in with that early next week, and I’ll have a full polling report on July 6.

In the end, Barack Obama rolled a huge set of dice by asking the Supreme Court to rule on this issue in the middle of an election campaign, and he won a huge victory. He’s also staked his positions on marriage equality and immigration reform for the children of illegals that speak to fairness and equality. Mitt Romney is now in a position where he has to disagree, and that puts him at odds with basic American values. June was always going to be a pivotal month. It has not let us down.

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Categories
Barack Obama Politics

If You Can’t Stand The Heat…

Do you remember the pundits and knobheads who, only a few short months ago, compared Barack Obama to LeBron James? Their major point was that both of them were overhyped, overpriced, underperforming, middling losers who were somehow primed to disappoint their fans and constituents. These know-nothings were sure that neither man would ever rise to greatness.

Look how that turned out.

I can understand disagreeing with a politician over issues or policy or implementation and not liking an athlete because of his style, team or relations with the public. But the comparison of these two obviously talented men moves beyond these fair points and veers off into, well, what? Jealousy? Contempt? Disdain? Outright hatred? Where’s the respect for what they’ve accomplished? Obama’s rivals give some grudging admission that he’s a political force, but then dismiss him as a guy with a pretty voice. LeBron’s detractors focus on his subpar performance in last year’s NBA finals without regard to his place as the game’s number one attraction and performer (on both ends of the court).

It’s disturbing, and now that LeBron has forever earned his place in NBA history and Obama his obvious place in the political realm, it’s time to expose the naysayers as the bad losers they are. Clearly they underestimate these two exceptional men who are at the pinnacle of their fields. It’s true that Obama might lose, but I’m not going to bet against him. He has more skill than Mitt Romney and right now we’re in the equivalent of the early playoffs in the presidential race. In September, you’ll see a different Obama; confident and pugnacious against an opponent who’s never played in the big leagues before. That’s a mismatch.

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Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

Obama Is Back

This guy is a political genius, and the right-wing just can’t stand it when President Obama acts presidential or outmaneuvers them on policies and public opinion. They pilloried him for evidently making gas prices go sky-high, prompting Mitt Romney to blame him for economic pain, then he gets gas prices to plummet by 30¢ at the pump, and magically, the issue goes away.

Obama’s move on immigration was an election year masterstroke. It was a blatant political move meant to shore up the Latino base and it had the intended effect of highlighting the split in the Republican Party between radical fence builders and the more moderate wing that see that demographic fleeing from the GOP. And Romney again has nowhere to go on this issue because, while he might have been sympathetic during his sensible years, he’s since staked out a claim in Santorumville that requires drivers only to make hard right turns.

The president is also beginning to hammer home the differences between his economic plan and Romney’s. It might be true that independent voters see Obama’s policies as hindering economic growth, but it’s still early in the campaign. Once he highlights the effects of Romney’s cut first plan and a more pragmatic vision that includes cuts and investment, those voters will come back in sufficient numbers to win him the election.

And the horse race numbers? Yes, they are close, but Obama is ahead in enough states now to capture 270+ electoral votes. Michigan is not going red and neither are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin nor Virginia unless we get terrible economic news over the summer. In fact, the economies in the swing states are outperforming the national economy. That favors the president.

The Supreme Court’s decision later this month will shape the race, but it will also emphasize Romney’s opposition to protections for people with pre-existing conditions and will force him to move farther right on health care. Most Americans do still oppose the individual mandate, but they also need affordable coverage. Obama offers that; Mitt doesn’t.

And there’s one final reason why we know Obama is turning his campaign around: Rush Limbaugh says that the president is panicking.  The right must be very nervous.

Please join the fun at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

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Politics

Panic! At The Obama Campaign? Really?

Did you know that the Democrats are panicking? It’s true. I know it because I read it in the media. Obama’s campaign is panicking. FOX News says that Obama’s panicking. Even Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager (and I’m pretty sure the other half of Loggins and Messina) worries about Democrats panicking.

Why the panic? Jobs numbers, dumb comments about the private economy being fine and a general sense that Obama just isn’t on his game obviously have the progressive left in a panic about the president’s chances in November. A closer look at what’s actually happening with the campaign shows that there is no need for panic, and, indeed, there is reason for optimism.

The conventional wisdom, until last week that is, was that Obama’s ads attacking Romney’s record at Bain Capital were doing more damage to Obama than to Mitt. Surprise! That’s not the case. In fact, the attacks have had their intended effect. More people have a negative view of private equity firms according to the latest polls. Imagine that; negative ads that produce negative responses towards your opponent. Perhaps the Republicans should try that.

The real wonder is that Democrats would entertain the idea that a negative ad aimed at Romney highlighting his past actions would somehow be off limits (do you hear me Bill?). This is the point in the campaign where you’d better define your opponent or they will define themselves. It’s exactly what the Romney campaign is trying to do on the economy and it’s what Obama needs to continue to do until the conventions.

The blabbering media narrative from last week also focused on the effects the dismal job numbers and Scott Walker’s win in Wisconsin would have on the president. What’s the reality? The latest polls show Obama holding on to his lead, though it is reduced from a month ago. Obama’s approval ratings? Gallup has him +4 and Rasmussen at -4, which are pretty much where Obama was a couple of days after the economic reports were released. Conclusion? The president is in decent shape. Even the folks at Intrade have Obama with a more than 52% chance of reelection. That is hardly a reason to panic.

The latest state polls also provide good news for Obama. He’s +6 in Pennsylvania, and a poll on Wednesday showing Romney ahead in North Carolina by 2 was really good news for the president because it also showed him inexplicably with only 78% of the African-American vote. Really? Anybody who believes that Mitt Romney is going to rack up 20+% of the African-American vote in November is either dreaming or on bath salts.

Ultimately, this race will be about the economy and jobs, and right now Obama has a jobs plan and Mitt doesn’t. Obama has a pragmatic foreign policy record and Mitt just wants to throw bombs at the world. Energy prices are down, marriage equality is up, and even Obama’s gaffe might help him in the long run.

I’m not panicking. This was always going to be a close race for a variety of reasons, and for all of the problems the president is currently having this month (with the health care ruling still to come), Obama is in good shape entering the summer. Romney has yet to tell us what he’d do as president and most polls say the public sides with Obama when it comes to balancing cuts with revenue and long-term investment in America.

Still, we all have those nervous moments. If you feel a panic attack coming on, let me soothe you at: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

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