Stunning news, I’m sure.
On the heels of the ABCNews/Washington Post poll that showed Obama with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney, some analysts were correct to note that the poll oversampled Democrats, which led to a skewing of the numbers.
The poll breakdown was: 34% Democrats 23% Republicans 34% Independents, which should have shown Obama with a much larger lead given the +11 advantage his party had.
The same can be said for the FOX News Poll which was released yesterday showing Mitt Romney with a 46%-44% lead over Obama, and a -9% deficit for Obama’s job approval rating. The problem for Romney is that he should have been farther ahead given the breakdown of the poll.
FOX used a 40% Democrat 39% Republican 19% Independent population. With a far greater Republican representation in the poll (16% more than ABC/WaPo), Romney should have a greater lead over Obama. They also under-represented Independents, who are usually around 30-33% of the electorate, at a time when other polls are showing Obama with a lead over Romney with those voters.
Given this, the top line number of Romney ahead +2 is good news for the president.
Oh, and be careful with FOX News. They can sometimes lean a bit to the right.
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