Is it time to sing “Hit the road Jack…?”
News from the Associated Press
Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann has cancelled her South Carolina trip and will hold a press conference at 11AM ET according to NBC News.
This is in addition to Rick Perry cancelling SC events and flying back to Texas to reassess his future.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the Iowa caucuses Tuesday night by eight votes. Romney narrowly edged out former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Was Iowa good for you? All that talk about three-way ties must have made conservatives across the political spectrum very uncomfortable. So let’s tidy up a bit.
Here’s what I thought would happen, and what actually happened:
Romney 26% 24.6%
Santorum 24% 24.5%
Paul 21% 21.4%
Gingrich 15% 13.3%
Perry 8% 10.3%
Bachmann 5% 5.0%
Not bad, I think.
Obviously, it was a terrible night for Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann who now have to be considered the first casualties of the race. Perry has the money to carry on and could find some sympathy in South Carolina and Florida, but he’ll struggle to get any positive press out of Iowa. Better he should keep his money and spend it on a Senate race. Newt also underperformed and needs a great showing in the next three states to remain viable. Ron Paul did about as well as can be expected, but he’s just not going to be the nominee. Did he gain influence in the party? Yes. Let’s see what that actually gets him.
Rick Santorum is the big winner here and with debates this weekend he has the chance to capitalize on the momentum. He’d better make sure that he’s prepared to defend himself because Mitt, Newt and Ron Paul are going to throw everything at him. If he does well he could place, after Mitt, in New Hampshire and set himself up for a better showing in the southern states. If he falters under the pressure, he’s probably toast. Right now I would say that he’s the best hope for the Tea Party and religious conservatives. And sweater vest manufacturers (who I hope are in the USA).
And Mitt? If he had kept his mouth shut on Monday and Tuesday about his chances of winning, he could have feigned surprise at his good showing. Since he set expectations higher, though, his performance has to be seen as underwhelming. He’ll win New Hampshire next week, but now it has to be more than a solid win. Anything under 40% is a Pyrrhic victory. He also has to keep his composure during the debates and not come off as screechy or too aggressive. That would be seen as desperate.
So now it’s on to the Granite State where global warming is killing the skiing industry. Move along citizens; nothing to see here.
For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives
The only time in Newt Gingrich’s political career that he decided to go clean and not destroy his opponents with negative ads caused Gingrich to be demolished by negative ads against him. In the month of December, Gingrich went from leading the Republicans with 26% to barely polling ahead of Rick Perry with only 13% of the Republican voters.
After trying to walk the straight and narrow path, Gingrich today showed a glimpse of how he built his political career – through being down-right nasty, calling Willard Romney a liar!
Tired, frustrated and irritated, by his own account, Mr. Gingrich heartily agreed when a television interviewer asked him Tuesday if he was calling Mr. Romney a “liar” in claiming to be a conservative.
“Here’s a Massachusetts moderate,” Mr. Gingrich said, whose “Romneycare” health plan when Mr. Romney was governor of Massachusetts included taxpayer-paid abortions and put a Planned Parenthood official on a state health board — red-cape issues for social conservatives.
The quitter from Alaska has some strong advice for Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman – quit!
Speaking to Fox News yesterday, Mrs Palin said about Bachmann: “She has a lot to offer, also, but I don’t think it is her time this go-around.”
After those words of wisdom, Sarah Palin also had this to say;
And I believe that unless she, too, wants to spend her own money or borrowing money and perhaps go into debt, which – heaven forbid – you do that to your family?’
When you’ve figured that one out, please explain it to me.
And you thought the holidays were over. Having the Iowa caucuses so soon after the new year is a great gift for political junkies and opens what should be an expensive, long, important and uniquely-American national election season. That Iowa and New Hampshire take all of the attention so early is an unfortunate quirk of the system and will provide us with untimely candidate exits and lots of wasted money.
If you’re new to the process, or just can’t believe this is how we elect our president, here’s how the Iowa caucuses work.
And now onto the analysis and predictions.
The poll that everyone is talking about was released on Saturday: The Des Moines Register’s poll of likely caucus attendees.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.
Based on the results of this poll, one scenario stands out to me. If Romney wins, it gives him great momentum heading into New Hampshire one week from today. Assuming he wins that, we could see full carnage among the challengers. Bachmann will either drop out of the race or her supporters will go to another conservative candidate, probably Santorum if he comes in second in Iowa. A fifth place finish for Perry would also lead many of his supporters to Santorum. Jon Huntsman will also leave after losing in New Hampshire, with his supporters moving to Romney and perhaps Gingrich. In any event, a conservative will emerge as the main challenger to Romney. That will become the main story through South Carolina and Florida later in January. If it’s Santorum, it will represent one of the great come-from-behinds in a long while.
It’s hard to say that a Santorum win immediately sets him up as Romney’s most viable main challenger. He’ll need to quickly establish a presence in South Carolina and Florida, which takes money and ground game, and he doesn’t seem to have much of either. He can, as can Gingrich or Paul if they place highly in Iowa, bypass New Hampshire or at least pass it off as Romney’s backyard and focus on the states where there are more social conservatives. Gingrich could spend more time in New Hampshire and claim a moral victory. I’m not putting much faith in a Paul victory after Iowa.
The 41% of Iowans who could change their mind are the wild cards in this race. If they decide that Romney is most electable, he’ll win a resounding victory and the race will be all but over. If they stay with one or two of the conservatives, then the race gets more interesting and probably lasts a bit longer. A stronger Gingrich showing than fourth makes him the main competition, but I don’t see it. Mainly because the thought frightens me a bit. Nothing scientific about that.
A PPP poll released on Monday shows
Ron Paul at 20 percent, Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent on a survey for which PPP reports a margin of error for each candidate of +/- 2.7 percent. Running farther back are Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 8 percent, Jon Huntsman at 4 percent and Buddy Roemer at 2 percent. PPP interviewed 1,340 likely Republican caucus goers on December 31 and January 1.
Santorum again seems to be the recipient of a late surge and is the second choice of 14% of respondents, the highest of any of the candidates. His personal approval rating of 60% is twice his disapproval rating. heady stuff for someone who lost their last election.
The rest of the polling can be seen at RealClearPolitics.com
Both NBC and the Rasmussen poll have Romney, Paul and Santorum in that order, which supports the Register poll from the weekend.
And here’s a nice chart from Polls and Votes
My pick for the results are as follows:
Romney 26%
Santorum 24%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 5%
It’s always more fun when you stick your neck out (like Louis XVI and his lovely wife Marie), so make your prediction in the comments section. Remember that in order to complain about the process, you have to commit to it.
As always, you can follow the action here and at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives
Just yesterday, Newt Gingrich concluded that he may not win in Iowa. Today, same Gingrich, different conclusion.
“I’m here to tell you when you have 41 percent undecided in The Des Moines Register poll, if each of you in the next 24 will talk to everyone of your friends and if each of you will go to the caucus and will make the best possible argument for nominating an experienced conservative with a national record of achieving things, we may pull off one of the great upsets of the history of the Iowa caucuses.”
Tonight we’ll know the truth as Iowans head to the polls today. Results are expected sometime after 8pm.
Gingrich is slowly coming to his senses. He is finally admitting that he has absolutely zero chance of winning tomorrow in Iowa.
INDEPENDENCE, Iowa — Newt Gingrich said Monday that he doesn’t expect to win tomorrow’s Iowa caucuses in a bow to his sinking poll numbers in the state.
The former House Speaker, who led in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers as recently as early December, sought to lower expectations for his showing tomorrow night.
“I don’t think I’m going to win,” Gingrich told reporters during a press availability. “If you look at the numbers, that volume of negativity has done enough damage. But on the other hand, if the Des Moines Register was right and 41 percent [are] potentially undecided, who knows what’s going to happen.”
“Whatever I do tomorrow night will be a victory because I’m still standing.”
Sure!
The world watches, as Eric Cantor and Republicans do everything they legally can to defeat this president. They especially fight against things that economists from both sides of the political fence agree will benefit the economy, simply because allowing the economy to flourish means President Obama’s presidency will be a bigger success than what it is now.
A question was posed to Eric Cantor – one of the biggest Republican threats to a healthy American economy.
Appearing on CBS, Cantor was asked by Lesley Stahl to explain why Congressional Republicans are so against the President. Why they exhibit a need for “brinkmanship, gamesmanship, one-upsmanship.”
He answered by spewing the same Republican nonsense, claiming that this is how things are done in Washington.”Ultimately this is part of the legislative process… I know it’s frustrating. I live it,” Cantor said. An obvious lie as both sides have always come together in the past to get things done.
He then went into his main lie – referring to the fact that Republicans want the President to fail as “just political rhetoric.” And then this, “You know, he is my commander in chief. I respect the man. I like the president.”
It’s just January 2nd, but already, this lie should qualify as PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year” for 2012.
There’s an attribute that goes hand in hand with someone who was being born into riches, and that is the need to always get their way. They will throw temper tantrums even if they’re wrong, just to be heard. It is always their turn to talk, even if it means shouting you down in the process.
Mitt Romney is the perfect example of this. Born with a gold spoon in his mouth, Romney will never learn how to be humble and allow others to voice their opinions. The DNC just released this video showing the top five moments in 2011 when Romney had to have his way. Something they call, the “Mitt Fit.”
If 2011 will go down in history as a terrible year economically, it will also be known as a turning point year for participatory and representative democracy in many countries throughout the world. True people power, spurred on by technology, second-to-second communications, and defiance of imposing police/military power proved more resilient than even the craftiest dictators. The movements that succeeded in overthrowing one-party, one person or one-ideology governments were not always smooth, and in many cases there is far more work to be done in order for the revolutions to hold onto their gains, but the people who have changed governments are now living in an altered world.
Consider the promise of democracy (the United States still needs to work on some of these):
As for the countries that are under the most serious political pressure from their citizens,
Democracy now lives in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya
It’s knocking on the door in Syria.
It’s at a turning point in Russia, Hungary, Iraq and Ukraine
This will not be easy, and it’s not clear if the citizens of these countries will eventually taste the fruits of new-found freedom, or if the benefits of democracy will touch their lives. But they are well on their way towards a more productive, politically freer future than they were 12 months ago. The United States has a responsibility to help nurture these democratic movements, even if we aren’t supportive of the groups that are elected under their new political realities.
My hope is that over the next 12 months, more people in the United States and the world over will become involved in their country’s political process from every band of the political spectrum. It’s essential that we have vibrant debate and a full airing of the issues that face us if we are to progress and solve our problems.
So in addition to losing weight, resolve to do one thing that will make the country and the world a better place for all of us. Register to vote. Join an organization. Contact your representative and establish a working relationship with them on an issue. Start a social media site to highlight a concern you have. Be part of the solution.
And join me daily on facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives
Happy New Year!
