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fail Politics

Wipeout! The GOP Wave Crashes.

It’s funny how elections make clear what is already in plain sight. The decline of the Republican Party and the discrediting of its radical right-wing has been evident for the past 3 to 4 years. Instead of following an agenda, they’ve focused on obstruction. When they deigned to speak about policy, it was usually in the negative: anti-abortion, anti-marriage equality, anti-tax for millionaires and anti-immigrant. It’s no wonder that women, African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans were anti-GOP.

It’s also appropriate that the final stake in the right’s collective heart came in the form of a nasty, windy, watery, power-sapping weather event called Sandy. I’ve been warning about the conservative wave crashing on the beach for most of the year, including after Hurricane Isaac in August.

It is ever thus. And now comes the figurative cleanup. From Sean Hannity’s epiphany on immigration, to Bill Kristol’s rebirth on taxes (and the answer is no, raising taxes on the wealthy will not kill anyone), to the rejection of the religious right’s message of exclusion and false piety, this election will very quickly result in the Republican’s changing their tune in order to avoid complete irrelevancy.

Oh yes, there will still be Tea Partiers and other conservatives in Congress, but they will be marginalized and will vote against anything that smacks of compromise or common sense. Others, though, will see the light. Lindsay Graham has already shown his grace by working with New York’s Charles Schumer on an immigration bill that could come in the lame duck session. There’s even talk that the environment and climate change could enable this Congress, or the next one, to come to grips with what’s been obvious to the rest of us for over a decade. Along with tax reform, that could make these next seven weeks the most productive of this eminently forgettable Congressional session.

And it’s all because of an election that highlighted a get-out-the-vote machine that will become an instant classic in the next edition of Political Science textbooks across the nation. President Obama’s team was able to turn a bad economy and a seemingly insurmountable deficit of enthusiasm into a convincing win, in large part because the Romney campaign aligned itself with the anti-math crowd and convinced itself that Obama couldn’t win.

But this was an election about ideas, and Obama won that battle as well. Most voters agreed with the president on taxes, marriage equality, women’s reproductive rights, immigration and investing in education and research. Medicare, which was supposed to be the GOP’s winning issue, was a dud. Paul Ryan was forced early on to abandon both this issue and his meat cleaver budget, leaving him with little to say except to parrot Romney’s ultimately failed ideas. That the election was close is a testament to how divided the country is, but the ever-decreasing white vote that went for Romney was no match for the rainbow coalition that came out for the president.

Is it an enduring coalition for Democrats? It will be if the Republicans don’t shed some of their antiquated ideas. I expect we’ll see a lot more of Marco Rubio over the next two years and a little more of Chris Christie, who raised his profile as someone willing to work with the other party to get things done during the devastation caused by Sandy and Obama’s visit to New Jersey. (Memo to the GOP: Sandy meant very little to your electoral loss. Did women and Latinos decide to vote Obama after a hurricane, or after your minions savaged themselves by equating rape with God’s plan?) We might even see some moderates peeking over the curtain from time to time.

The main lesson we all need to take from the election is that the people want the government to help solve our problems. They don’t want government completely out of the way, but would rather that it do what it’s supposed to do: keep us safe, keep us working, and taking care that the safety net catches those who need it. We’ll take care of the rest. The Democrats can’t get too full of themselves and their message because this was not a mandate election. It was a reaffirmation election that told Barack Obama to complete the job he started in 2009 and to work with the other side to fix the system. The GOP will obstruct and filibuster at its peril. They need to work with the president on all issues and not wait until the next election to see if they can outflank him. That didn’t work for the past two years and it won’t work in the future.

I am optimistic for the first time in a while. It might be misplaced, or I might be more naive than the next guy, but I really think we’ll get the government unplugged and start to see some real progress.

The wave has crashed. Now let’s hope the tide has turned.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest

Categories
Politics

Republicans In Panic Mode – Realizing The Inevitable Romney Loss This November

With new polls showing President Obama extending his lead over Mitt Romney by as much as 52% to 46% according to a CNN/ORC poll, Republicans are now officially in panic mode.

On the “Fair and Balanced” Fox News network – you know, that network that goes out of their way to make sure the content of their programming is “fair and balanced” – one of the “fair and balanced” host advised Mitt Romney to “call Barack Obama a socialist.”

And the President of Fox News himself offered his two cents, telling Romney to “draw a clear line” and “offer specific path to restore American dream.” Sarah Palin suggested that Mitt Romney is being too soft, and told the candidate that he must fight, and fight with all his might!

And Republican Joe Scarborough slammed Romney recently, calling him a “flawed candidate.”

But Laura Ingraham so far takes the cake. She assailed the Republican candidate and his campaign, stating that if Romney cannot win, the Republican party should be dismantled.

“If you can’t beat Barack Obama with this record, then shut down the party. Shut it down. Start new, with new people,” Laura said. She continued;

“Election after election, we hire people who have lost previous campaigns; who’ve run campaigns that have failed; who have message campaigns where the message fell flat, and they keep getting re-hired. I don’t understand that. I don’t know why those are the people you hire.”

They’re flipping their lids, and the heat hasn’t been turned on yet!

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Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Politics taxes Wisconsin

VIDEO: Paul Ryan’s Budget Will Give Mitt Romney a 1% Tax Rate – Up From 0%!

PrioritiesUSA, the SuperPac supporting President Obama has created another video. We all remember how Republicans and Mitt Romney got up-in-arms over the SuperPac’s video about Joe Soptic – a factory steel worker fired when Romney’s Bain Capital closed the company that employed him. Joe’s wife later died of cancer because the unemployed couple had no health insurance.

In their new video, PrioritiesUSA is highlighting the Budget framed by Romney’s VP choice Paul Ryan. Did you know that under Ryan’s plan people in Mitt Romney‘s income bracket would only pay a rate of 1%? And for Mr. Romney, that 1% might actually be a rate increase. Word on the street is that he’s paid zero taxes in earlier years. Of course no one has come forward with concrete evidence to prove this claim, but this is what we’re hearing and Mitt Romney is too scared to release his taxes to prove us wrong.

Video…

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Politics

Presidential Polling: Obama, Romney Will Win, Lose

The polling in the presidential race over the past week has led to some interesting analysis, and depending upon your view of the numbers both candidates can claim to be winning, which also means that both are losing.

The latest RealClearPolitics composite shows the president with a small lead, but his aggregate score of 46.4 is rather low for an incumbent and gives Mitt Romney many opportunities to catch and surpass him. A case in point is an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday showing Mr. Obama with a 49-43% lead. The problem is that the poll oversamples Democrats by 11 points, 46-35%. My sense is that Democrats will not turn out in November in those numbers, so the poll is not as representative as it first appears. The other issue is that the poll uses registered voters (RV) as opposed to likely voters (LV), which at this point in the campaign might be worthless.

Another poll released on Tuesday by PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU shows the race tied at 46%, which would be great news for Romney if not for some troubling poll internals. First, it assumes that Romney will attract 17% of the African-American vote and 39% of the Latino vote. By November, that might be possible, but other polls show President Obama garnering support from those groups that approaches 80-90%, so this poll might be a bit optimistic. Further, the poll oversamples Democrats by 7%, which, again, is possible, but it also shows that 32% of respondents identify themselves at members of the Tea Party. That’s high. Finally, this is an RV poll using automated technology and did not call cell phones. All of this adds up to a poll that has a lot of holes in it for both sides to peek through a spin as they please.

The national tracking polls give us little to go on, with Rasmussen giving Romney a 1 point lead and Gallup giving that same lead to Obama.

The real action is with state polls, and for the most part these have been good news for the president. A Rasmussen poll of Michigan gives Obama a 48-42% lead using likely voters, and a Survey USA/KSTP poll  of likely voters in Minnesota has Obama up 46-40%. Good news for Obama, but it shows a decline in his support from previous Minnesota polls which could be a signal of slippage or statistical noise. Your choice, it seems, depending upon which way you lean. A SurveyUSA poll of Florida using likely voters has the president with a 48-43% lead, but the same release showed Republican Senate candidate Connie Mack leading Democrat Bill Nelson by 48-42%. That kind of ticket splitting doesn’t make sense, so we’ll need another Florida poll to sort that out.

There has also been some considerable punditry about where this race is heading despite the polling. Two schools of thought seem to be controlling the debate. One says that the negative ads that Obama is running in swing states, combined with an improving economy in those states, will lead to his reelection. The other thought is that Obama has spent almost $100 million dollars on negative ads and only has a small lead on Romney and no poll has him at 50% or above on the national level (some state polls do have both candidates with sizable leads depending on the state). Both camps are looking for any significant movement in the polls, but won’t likely see much until mid-August when Romney unveils his pick for Vice president and the conventions get under way in earnest.

Of course, it’s the states that matter most in our electoral system and Obama will want to lock down as many of his 2008 wins as possible, and the above discussion suggests that he’s moving in that direction. Still, polls are close in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina (where Romney leads) and Pennsylvania. This is where the election will be won or lost and Romney has yet to advertise seriously in any of those states (he can’t until after the GOP convention).

Stay tuned for more as the polls are released.

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Categories
Politics presidential

President Leads Romney By Double Digits Among Likely Voters – Bloomberg Poll

Barack Obama has opened a significant lead over Mitt Romney in a Bloomberg National Poll that reflects the presumed Republican nominee’s weaknesses more than the president’s strengths.

Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, even as the public gives him low marks on handling the economy and the deficit, and six in 10 say the nation is headed down the wrong track, according to the poll conducted June 15- 18.

The survey shows Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has yet to repair the damage done to his image during the Republican primary. Thirty-nine percent of Americans view him favorably, about the same as when he announced his presidential candidacy last June, while 48 percent see him unfavorably — a 17-percentage point jump during a nomination fight dominated by attacks ads. A majority of likely voters, 55 percent, view him as more out of touch with average Americans compared with 36 percent who say the president is more out of touch.

[Poll]

Categories
Politics

Panic! At The Obama Campaign? Really?

Did you know that the Democrats are panicking? It’s true. I know it because I read it in the media. Obama’s campaign is panicking. FOX News says that Obama’s panicking. Even Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager (and I’m pretty sure the other half of Loggins and Messina) worries about Democrats panicking.

Why the panic? Jobs numbers, dumb comments about the private economy being fine and a general sense that Obama just isn’t on his game obviously have the progressive left in a panic about the president’s chances in November. A closer look at what’s actually happening with the campaign shows that there is no need for panic, and, indeed, there is reason for optimism.

The conventional wisdom, until last week that is, was that Obama’s ads attacking Romney’s record at Bain Capital were doing more damage to Obama than to Mitt. Surprise! That’s not the case. In fact, the attacks have had their intended effect. More people have a negative view of private equity firms according to the latest polls. Imagine that; negative ads that produce negative responses towards your opponent. Perhaps the Republicans should try that.

The real wonder is that Democrats would entertain the idea that a negative ad aimed at Romney highlighting his past actions would somehow be off limits (do you hear me Bill?). This is the point in the campaign where you’d better define your opponent or they will define themselves. It’s exactly what the Romney campaign is trying to do on the economy and it’s what Obama needs to continue to do until the conventions.

The blabbering media narrative from last week also focused on the effects the dismal job numbers and Scott Walker’s win in Wisconsin would have on the president. What’s the reality? The latest polls show Obama holding on to his lead, though it is reduced from a month ago. Obama’s approval ratings? Gallup has him +4 and Rasmussen at -4, which are pretty much where Obama was a couple of days after the economic reports were released. Conclusion? The president is in decent shape. Even the folks at Intrade have Obama with a more than 52% chance of reelection. That is hardly a reason to panic.

The latest state polls also provide good news for Obama. He’s +6 in Pennsylvania, and a poll on Wednesday showing Romney ahead in North Carolina by 2 was really good news for the president because it also showed him inexplicably with only 78% of the African-American vote. Really? Anybody who believes that Mitt Romney is going to rack up 20+% of the African-American vote in November is either dreaming or on bath salts.

Ultimately, this race will be about the economy and jobs, and right now Obama has a jobs plan and Mitt doesn’t. Obama has a pragmatic foreign policy record and Mitt just wants to throw bombs at the world. Energy prices are down, marriage equality is up, and even Obama’s gaffe might help him in the long run.

I’m not panicking. This was always going to be a close race for a variety of reasons, and for all of the problems the president is currently having this month (with the health care ruling still to come), Obama is in good shape entering the summer. Romney has yet to tell us what he’d do as president and most polls say the public sides with Obama when it comes to balancing cuts with revenue and long-term investment in America.

Still, we all have those nervous moments. If you feel a panic attack coming on, let me soothe you at: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

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Mitt Romney Politics quotes Republican

Some of Rick Santorum’s Best Quotes about Mitt Romney

With Santorum officially out-of-the-way, the focus now turns to the general election between Mitt Romney, the last man/robot carrying the Republican banner and President Obama – America’s only legitimate choice for 2012.

But with Santorum gone and the Republican establishment trying to clean up the mess he left behind, there is one remnant of the Santorum that will stay with us forever – his priceless quotes about his fellow Republican, Mittens.

Here are just a some of his best. 

”They are not going to nominate a moderate Massachusetts governor who’s been outspending his opponent 10-1 and can’t win the election outright. What chance do we have in a general election if he can’t, with an overwhelming money advantage, be able to deliver any kind of knockout blow to other candidates?” — NBC’s “Today,” March 12, 2012.

”Do you really believe this country wants to elect a Wall Street financier as the president of the United States? Do you think that’s the kind of experience that we need?” — Rockford, Ill., March 19, 2012.

”Conservatives will not trust (Romney), will not rally around him.” — Conference call with reporters, March 5, 2012.

”Are you going to vote for someone that says one thing one day, anything else the next day that’s necessary to win? Or are you going to vote for someone you trust?” — Feb. 25, 2012, Troy, Mich.

”He’s got a lot of money, but he doesn’t have the convictions, the authenticity nor the record that is necessary to win this election.” — Jan. 17, 2012, South Carolina.

”Pick any other Republican in the country. (Romney) is the worst Republican in the country to put up against Barack Obama.” — March 25, 2012, Franksville, Wis.

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Mitt Romney Politics Slut

Mitt Romney On Rush Limbaugh’s “Slut” Remark – I Would Have Said It Differently

Mitt Romney managed to duck and hide from the media until Friday, when he was put in a position where he had no choice but to answer reporter’s questions about the Rush Limbaugh controversy (the latest one that is…)

Asked what he thought of Limbaugh taking on a private citizen, calling her a “slut” and a “prostitute” because she testified in Washington on the need for contraception to help with women’s health, Romney finally said this;

“I’ll just say this which is it’s not the language I would have used. I’m focusing on the issues I think are significant in the country today and that’s why I’m here talking about jobs and Ohio.”

So to be clear, Romney would have used different words to convey the same message Rush was trying to convey. A couple of responses from Twitter puts it this way;

And

Categories
Arizona Mitt Romney Politics presidential Rick Santorum

Mitt Nicks Rick In Mich Mish-Mosh: Four Head to O-HI-O!

Mitt May Win Right To Lose Michigan in the Fall!

Democrats, Pro-Vomit Vote Not Enough For Santorum!

Arizona Goes Romney! Border Remains Calm!

Mitt Romney did almost enough to dispel any lingering doubts that he will be the Republican Party’s nominee for president by defeating Rick Santorum in the all-important Michigan primary yesterday.  Romney crossed the 40% threshold but failed to defeat his chief rival by more than 10%, which would have ended any debate about Romney’s being the GOP standard-bearer. Still, a win is a win, and now the field moves on to Super Tuesday where there is now even a doubt that Newt can win his home state of Georgia.

How did I do with my predictions? Let’s check.

For Arizona:

Prediction                Actual

Romney          43%                         47.3%

Santorum        30%                         26.6%

Gingrich          18%                         16.2%

Paul                  8%                           8.4%

For Michigan:

Romney          39%                          41.1%

Santorum        37%                          37.9%

Paul                12%                          11.6%

Gingrich          10%                           6.5%

All told, not too bad.

So now it’s on to Tuesday Grande, where the big prize will be Ohio and the attack ads will come fast and furious. It’s difficult to fathom what else Mitt and Rick could say that could be any more outrageous than their embarrassing forays into trees, bodily functions, automobile choices, anti-intellectual diatribes and invocations of Satan/Obama (really, have you ever seen them in the same room together?) Interesting.

For more, please visit  www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest  

Categories
Politics

Romney Lies – Suggests He’ll Never Attack President Obama To Win an Election

Ask Mitt Romney a question about his policies for the nation, and I can assure you he would find a way to blame President Obama for something. But he’s not alone. Romney, like his other Republican presidential opponents, have figured out that the average Republican voter is not concerned about policies, they’re looking for someone who can best criticize the president, especially if that criticism is coupled with a few mouthful of lies.

But of course,  we are talking about Mitt Romney, and sticking to his character trait, Romney is now trying to distance himself from the say anything to win style of his campaign. Said Romney;

“We’ve seen throughout the campaign that if you’re willing to say really outrageous things that are accusatory and attacking President Obama that you’re going to jump up in the polls,” he said during a campaign-office visit in the Detroit suburbs. “I’m not willing to light my hair on fire to try and get support. I am who I am.”

Throughout the course of the Republican primaries, there have been like a million Republican presidential debates. Google any of them and marvel at the things Romney was allowed to say against this president… in an attempt to win the nomination.

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Mitt Romney Politics presidential

Mitt Romney Did Not Oppose Gay Adoptions As Governor – Video

In an effort to appear “severely conservative,” Mitt Romney has gone against everything Mitt Romney ever stood for. And in so doing, he has mastered the art of the flip-flop.

This is just one more example of the many many… many times Romney has flipped.




Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Santorum Oozes Past Romney Again in Latest Michigan Poll

Despite our own professional opinion that Mitt Romney will win in today’s Michigan primary election, a final poll conducted last night is showing something different.

A final Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan conducted over the last two nights shows Rick Santorum just edging Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential primary, 38% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 14% and Newt Gingrich at 9%.

However, the results for the last night show a decided shift in momentum toward Santorum, leading Romney by five points, 39% to 34%, with Paul at 15% and Gingrich at 10%.

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