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Domestic Policies Donald Trump Donald Trump iowa caucus marco rubio News Politics

Cruz Bumps Trump, Rubio A ReMarcoble Third, Dems Deadlocked

I’m not really the type to say “I told you so,” but I indeed told you so on numerous occasions that Donald
Trump would not be the GOP nominee and neither will Ted Cruz.

Trump’s second place finish in Iowa is but the first blow to his campaign, because while he was battering Cruz with ads and withering sarcasm, Marco Rubio, who is no moderate, snuck up on him and finished a very strong third. This gives the GOP alternatives to Trump and my sense is that they will take advantage of that.

Iowa also marked the beginning of either the beginning or the end of some of the more moderate Republican campaigns. Jeb, Kasich and Christie absolutely must come in second or third in the Granite State if they are to have any traction for the rest of the month and to stick around for Super Tuesday. By next week the GOP field should lose Fiorina, Carson and Paul, and their supporters will have to go somewhere. My guess is that they won’t go to Trump or Cruz.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Bernie and Hillary were locked in a tight race that likely serves Sanders better because the polls said he would lose by a small margin. To lose by an even smaller margin, or perhaps to eke out a small win, puts Clinton back a bit going into New Hampshire where Bernie is expected to do very well.

Funny how actual voting can really mess up a narrative. Onward we go.

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Climate Change democrats Domestic Policies Donald Trump Iowa iowa caucus News Politics Republican vote

Political Junkies Unite! It’s Time to Vote

I predict that the global rise in temperature will show a significant decline on Monday as all the hot air bloviators, pollsters, consultants and media talking heads hold their steamy breath as they await the results of the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn’t they? The numbers all say that Donald Trump will win the caucuses over Ted Cruz, with the rest of the GOP field barely in their rear-view mirror.

And then of course there’s Iowa’s importance as a…as a…mid-western, um, evangelical-heavy, um…white, um…state. That really doesn’t represent much about America except that the Republicans there seem to have fallen for Trump’s snake oil and Cruz’s smarmy insincerity.

Which is why I think the results will likely be different from the media narrative that’s been written since the fall. I could be wrong, and if I am I will say so because I live in New Jersey and from the governor on down to us little folk, we New Jerseyans always tell the truth and admit our failures and flip-flops.

For what it’s worth, I have been saying all along that neither Trump nor Cruz will be the GOP nominee because both their personalities and their policy prescriptions will not appeal to a majority of either party voters or the electorate at large. Trump has been inconsistent in his message on the stump and hasn’t really come up with specific fixes for the economy, foreign policy or constitutional issues mainly because he doesn’t have many. Calling people stupid or losers or saying that he can fix things because he’s a businessman doesn’t inspire confidence. Cruz, likewise, is running to head a government that he doesn’t even respect. He says he knows what the constitution means and the original intent of the framers, but my suspicion is that they would laugh him out of the room for being a presidential pretender at best.

Trump and Cruz are likely to be first and second in Iowa, but I don’t believe that either one will crack 30% of the vote and the big surprise will come from Marco Rubio, and one of Bush or Kasich, who will do far (far) better than what they are polling right now. I think they could approach 20% of the vote, which would instantly put them in line to be seen as the moderate/establishment savior for the party, and the de facto person to beat in New Hampshire.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s e-mails have reared their ugly heads again and they will have a slight impact on the race, but I think she will still win the caucuses by about 5 percentage points over Bernie Sanders. He’ll likely poll in the high 30s or lower 40s on Monday, and will go into New Hampshire as the favorite to win there, but I don’t think he’ll do that either. Clinton has too much money and more support among minorities for Sanders to mount a national challenge.

After a very long pre-season, it’s time for political junkies everywhere to get their electoral needles ready for the voting binge to come. The fun starts now.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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Education News Politics teachers union

Disuniting the Public Unions

The end result is in reach for those conservatives who have worked so hard to destroy public sector unions and along with them, the rest of the middle class.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Monday in the case of Friedrichs v. California Teachers Association about the legality of public unions charging people who don’t want to join them an agency fee that amounts to almost a full dues payment. The teachers who brought the case are arguing that everything public sector unions do is political since they use public taxpayer money for their contracts. And since, in their view, everything is political, the plaintiffs say that their first amendment rights are being violated because they’re being forced to support an entity, the union, that they don’t agree with.

The controlling opinion on this issue is a 1977 decision in the Abood case in Detroit. Back when the Supreme Court had conservatives who saw the value of unions, the court said that agency fees were constitutional. From the article:

In 1977’s Abood v. Detroit Board of Education, which established the constitutional principle at stake in Friedrichs, Justice Potter Stewart acknowledged that compelling someone to support their bargaining units may affect their First Amendment rights. He listed several instances of employees disagreeing with the views of their union — on abortion, race relations, even unionism itself. But ultimately, Stewart acknowledged that “such interference” with a person’s views is “constitutionally justified” so as to allow “the important contribution of the union shop to the system of labor relations established by Congress.”

It seems almost quaint, the idea that the union movement is important. That’s what 30+ years of unrelenting opposition and hostility to worker’s rights and decent wages will do to a country.

What’s even more interesting and sad in a way, is the argument from the teachers (yes, teachers) who brought this case. Not everything a public union does is political. And any union or agency employee has the absolute right to speak out, to suggest ideas and to protest what they believe to be unfair actions that the union takes. Further, the union negotiates salary, benefits and working conditions for every employee, whether they are union members or not. If the fees were struck down, then many members would be benefiting from negotiations for free.

It gets even better. Harlan Elrich, one of the teachers in the case, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed,  

“That the union would presume to push, allegedly on my behalf, for higher salaries at the expense of smaller class sizes and avoiding teacher layoffs is preposterous” 

He’s also quoted in the New York Times as saying,  

“I can negotiate for myself. I’m a good teacher, highly respected, and I can go anywhere.”

There are two terrifically dangerous assumptions at work here. The first is that we have a teacher who doesn’t want the union to ask for higher salaries for all teachers. Mr. Elrich might be doing fine financially, but many other teachers – including those in New Jersey who are taking home less pay every year because of increasingly burdensome health insurance payments – are not doing as well and are falling behind or struggling just to maintain a middle class life after going to college and starting their lives.

The second problem is his assumption that he, or any teacher, would be better off negotiating his own salary and benefits. In fact, Mr. Erlich is contradicting himself mightily by accusing the union of negotiating salaries beyond the means of the town to pay them, and maintaining that he can negotiate perhaps a better salary on his own, with the money coming from the same taxpayer pockets. And if he wants to seriously negotiate smaller class sizes and avoid teacher layoffs, then he should join the union and push for those things rather than try to freeload and then complain.

Having teachers becoming free agents is exactly what the corporate conservatives want because, like me, they understand that teachers are not really in a good position when it comes to negotiating for themselves. The reason? Because the public respect teachers for the job they do for their children, but they also think teachers get paid too much for a 10 month job. Mr. Ehrlich is likely in for a rude awakening if he wins and then goes to his Superintendent or Business Administrator and is offered less money because of thousands of new college graduates willing to take his job at, I’m guessing, about $30,000 dollars less.

It is incumbent upon all teacher’s unions to spend the rest of this school year explaining to their members why it’s important to stick together, and to remind them what teaching life was like before the association movement. Justices Alito, Scalia, Thomas and Roberts would surely love for people to forget salaries that required second jobs and administrative fiats that subverted the dignity and respect that teachers deserve.

All might not be lost at the Court because we never really know what the Justices are thinking (remember the two Affordable Care Act cases and marriage equality), but this one will be close and we don’t have Potter Stewart to fight for the value of unions. But we do have ourselves. I hope that’s enough.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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News Texas

Officer Who Arrested Sandra Bland Indicted

No, the Grand jury did not indict Texas State Trooper Brian Encinia on any wrong doing in Sandra Bland’s death, but he was indicted on a perjury charge, for falsifying information about why Bland was stopped and removed from her vehicle.

Special prosecutor Shawn McDonald said Wednesday outside the courthouse that “the indictment was issued in reference to the reasoning that (Texas State Trooper Brian Encinia) removed her from her vehicle.”

He explained the grand jury didn’t believe Encinia’s statement that he took her from the car she was driving so he could conduct a safer traffic investigation.

The penalty for perjury, a Class A misdemeanor, is up to a year in jail and up to a $4,000 fine.

The Texas Department of Public Safety said after the indictment was announced that it will begin termination proceedings against the trooper.

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Donald Trump Donald Trump News Politics

It’s 2016: Do You Know Where Your Candidates Are?

Is there really a president in this bunch? And I’m not just talking about the Republicans either.

While none of the GOP candidates thrill me at all for various reasons, I find myself also looking critically at the Democrats and asking if this really is the best we can do. Of course, Americans generally ask this question every four years when looking for a candidate they’re passionate about, like Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama. Neither of those guys will be on the ballot this year.

Instead, we have a group of Republicans who are falling over each other to appeal to a shrinking pool of older white voters who somehow want the country to revert back to 1953, when men were men, women were supposed to be in the home and minorities were supposed to be in the back of the bus or in the fields picking our fruits and vegetables. Those days are not coming back for a very good reason. The problem is that the GOP candidates don’t see it. Donald Trump is the commander in chief of this cabal, but his greatest support will turn out to be a Potemkin village full of people who say they love their candidate but do not come out and vote in numbers enough to elect him. Which is a good thing.

The other Republican candidates are just as flawed, and getting flawedier as time goes on. Trump has set the tone on immigration and religious intolerance, and the rest of the field has gone along with him, except for Jeb Bush. But he doesn’t seem to matter these days, because the last person the party wants to see at the head of the ticket is another Bush. Not that Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie or John Kasich are doing any better.

Most of them deny any human hand in the changing climate and support various, intrusive policies for women who just want to get honest, impartial medical advice from their doctors. They’ve also come up with foreign policies that riff on bombings and sending American soldiers overseas without considering that other countries can do this work with limited US reserves. ISIS is a deadly threat, but sustained pressure from the sane Muslim world will go a long way towards turning the tables on them. We need to support that.

What strikes me particularly about the Republican candidates is that the two with arguably the best records in their previous jobs are Governors Bush and Kasich, and they seem to be having trouble breaking through the irresponsible and dangerous rantings of those above them in the polls. Aside from those two, none of the other candidates has done anything notable, and that includes Christie, who asked the New Jersey Supreme Court to declare his one great accomplishment – public worker pension and benefit reform – as unconstitutional. And it did.

And if the spotlight ever turns on Christie because of a win in New Hampshire, his abysmal handling of the New Jersey economy will not endear him to economic conservatives. Similarly, Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Carson and Fiorina do not have a signature accomplishment to run on. And perhaps that doesn’t matter: Mitt Romney did have an accomplishment in health care, but he ran faster than Usain Bolt away from it. Go figure.

As for the Democrats, Hillary is still faced with the drip drip of government e-mails being purged from her home server and she is less than stellar on the campaign trail. Bernie Sanders has the heart and passion, but his time was 1972, not 2016. The country is not ready to turn around and elect someone with his views, and if he’s nominated (which he won’t be) the Democrats will lose.

Don’t get me wrong here; I believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected president in November and that she will do a fine job in the White House. It’s just that the campaign’s tone has focused on what makes us weak and though they try, none of the candidates is an uplifting presence who is telling us what they see as the future of this country. Perhaps that will come in the summer. But in the meantime, it’s going to be a long winter.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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News Police Shooting

Wrongful Death Lawsuit Filed in Police Shooting of Quintonio LeGrier

The father of Quintonio LeGrier, the teenager fatally shot by Chicago police over the weekend, has taken legal action against the city of Chicago, CNN reports.

On Monday, Antonio LeGrier filed a wrongful death lawsuit in Cook County Circuit Court, alleging the officer shot his son without justification, used excessive force and failed to provide medical care as he lay bleeding on the floor.

Antonio LeGrier also sued on grounds of false arrest. He is seeking damages exceeding $100,000.

City officials did not immediately reply to CNN’s request for comment on the lawsuit.

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Featured News

Woman Shoots Victim in The Eye Because Victim Didn’t Believe in God

Anitra Braxton, a 39-year-old woman from Arizona, told police that she shot the woman in her eye because that woman did not believe in God. After shooting the woman, Braxton told police that she covered the woman’s body in a towel and left it on the couch for 2 to 3 days as a “shrine from God.”

Police found the body on the woman’s sofa on December 26th.

Police was told of the scene at Braxton’s apartment and went to investigate. After Braxton opened the door she told police that she lived alone. Police looked past the doorway into the apartment and saw the body covered in a towel and lying on the sofa. Braxton was arrested and charged with first degree murder.

While being questioned, Braxton told police the victim on the couch was a “shrine from God” and was actually her own body. She later told police that the victim had been shot in the eye for not believing in God.

Police also learned from Braxton that the body had been inside her apartment for two to three days and based on evidence, police believe the apartment had been cleaned up in the days since.

Braxton has been charged with first-degree murder and police have thus far been unable to identify the victim.

The investigation is ongoing.

 

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Domestic Policies Donald Trump News Politics

Ugliness in the Season of Beauty

I usually look forward to the December holidays because, for at least one month, people in the United States tend to he hopeful, helpful, optimistic and happy. They look backward at the year that was and take stock, and they look forward with anticipation at what the new year will bring.

This year, things are most certainly different. The terrorist attacks here at home and in France, Afghanistan, Iraq and other places have sapped some of the love and light from the season. We are a scared nation with no clear path forward. Want to brutally bomb Syria? An option. Want to send ground troops to Syria and Iraq? Another option. Want to create a coalition of American, European and Middle Eastern countries to fight ISIS and other terrorist groups? A third option. But none of these seem like THE option and they all involve terrible risks both overseas and at home.

President Obama has been steadfast in his insistence that we will not send masses of American troops to Syria or Iraq and I think that’s exactly the correct strategy for now. He has rightly been criticized for downplaying the ISIS threat and for not standing behind his threat to attack Syria if Assad used Chemical weapons, but most Americans do not want to see our men and women coming home in body bags. The old joke is that we shouldn’t elect anyone who actually wants to be president because it’s a terrible, impossible job. These are the times.

The focus on attacks from radical terrorists has overshadowed the home-grown terror that has also shaken the nation.  The killings at the Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs was quickly forgotten in the wake of San Bernardino, but both were shocking events by people who were motivated by hatred, a misplaced fanaticism, and unbending ideology. In both shootings, the perpetrators should never have been allowed to get their guns, but because we are rapidly making the Second Amendment more important than the First, more people will get guns and use them on innocent people.

The other event that is dampening the holiday spirit is the presidential election. The Republican candidates are falling over themselves to blame Muslims and immigrants for our problems and have created an atmosphere where attacks on American Muslims are rising, and overreactions to a school assignment in Virginia that led to the entire school system being shut down because a teacher asked her students to copy a passage from the Koran using calligraphy. Dangerous, inflammatory rhetoric has its consequences and we are now living those consequences.

The left also has its problems when it comes to these issues. Calls for safe spaces and trigger warnings on college campuses only serve to segregate students and ideas, making common cause that much more difficult. If a person doesn’t feel safe in the general population, that’s a problem that needs to be addressed head-on. The answer is not to provide areas where people can retreat to or have their ideological bubble re-inflated.

The unfortunate aspect of this particular racist, phobic spasm we’re living in now is that it’s a very American trait. In fact, it’s more a part of our history than acceptance of different people and ideas. We eventually do make room in our society for those we first shun and isolate, but it takes too long and we backslide far too often. One need only look at how African-Americans and Latinos are treated by police forces to understand just how much more work we need to do on justice, even as we celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act.

We will eventually move forward as a country and I’m looking forward to a shift in tone from politicians and a shift in attitude from many of my fellow Americans. In the meantime, I wish you peace and joy, humility and introspection, thoughtfulness and forthrightness, love and honor. And let’s turn the ugliness around. Now.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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News

Commercial Flights to Cuba Could Start in 2016

After over 50 years of a fractured relationship where they did not even talk to each other, Americans and Cubans have taken another step in solidifying their renewed love – visiting each other.

The two sides have made many changes since that Dec. 17, 2014, announcement: reopening embassies in each others’ capitals and striking new business deals in the medical, tourism and communications fields. But Wednesday’s agreement would mark the most significant step yet in the rush to restore normalized relations.

The Obama administration has changed rules in the past year to make traveling to Cuba easier for Americans, but it’s far more complicated than booking a flight to most other places in the world. All travelers to and from Cuba must use charter flights that are carefully monitored by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Travelers must present their visas, identification and payment information to charter agents who handle the flights, and all travelers must certify that their trip falls under one of 12 categories approved by the federal government.

The agreement reportedly reached by U.S. and Cuban officials on Wednesday in Washington would create a system that is more familiar to travelers. That may include the ability to book a trip through a Web portal and eliminate the long-standing practice of checking in four hours before each flight.

Officials told the AP that the understanding could be finalized in the coming days. Once the deal is in place, commercial flights could start up in 2016.

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News Russia

White Man’s Skin Turns “Dark Skinned” After Liver Transplant from Black Man

The 65-year-old Russian man was diagnosed with hepatitis C and cancer, and would have died if he didn’t get the liver transplant. He traveled to the United States and paid $500,000 for the transplant. The liver came from a 38 year old black man. What happened next left everyone, including doctors, perplexed.

“I noticed that his skin was getting darker,” said Igor Atamanenko, life-long friend of 65-year-old, Semen Gendler.  “When he told me they had given him the liver of an African-American man, I guess that was probably the reason for the color change.

“I have known my friend for years, and he has always been if anything extremely pale, and now for the first time ever he is becoming dark-skinned.”

Gendler does not mind the change.

“I could end up much darker than this, to be honest,” he said. “I don’t care. The main thing is that the liver works and I am healthy.”

Gendler says doctors are at a loss as to what is causing the color change.

“It’s incredible,” he said. “I am now so full of energy and living between two cities in New York and Krasnodar, and if my skin ends up dark, who cares? I certainly don’t.”

Categories
child abuse News Rape sexual abuse

Danbury Man Arrested, Accused of Sexually Abusing 8 Year Old Girl

A man from Danbury Connecticut is accused of sexually abusing an 8-year-old girl was arrested on Friday, according to a police report

According to police, the Special Victims Unit started an investigation into the alleged abuse on Dec. 6. As a result of the investigation, police obtained an arrest warrant for Carl Alcala, 58, of Danbury.

Alcala was taken into custody at his residence and charged with three counts of first-degree sexual assault of a victim under 13-years-old and three counts of risk of injury to a minor.

He was given a court set cash bond of $75,000.

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Domestic Policies Donald Trump Donald Trump Foreign Policies Healthcare News Politics

Let’s Get This Straight: Donald Trump Will Not Be President

He won’t even be the Republican nominee in 2016.

Yes, I know, the New York Times just published a poll that has Trump high atop the GOP field and gaining strength as the one candidate who will keep us safe. He’s everywhere on cable and network news and is a constant topic of conversation on social media. Even Hillary Clinton has stopped dismissing him as a joke and is responding to his absurd claims. This is necessary for now because Trump will not go away on his own. He has to be shown the door and that will happen. It will be messy, but it will happen.

Why am I so sure about the Donald? Because he’s essentially an excellent salesman but a political fraud who knows how to sell himself, and he’s attached himself to a message and a persona that insulates him from criticism for saying outrageously xenophobic, racist, sexist, anti-Semitic and just plain wrong things on a daily basis. What he has done marvelously well is to tap into the country’s fears about terrorism and he has accused the president of not only not doing enough, but of purposely allowing us to be vulnerable.

Trump doesn’t need to repeat the lie about Obama not being a citizen because he has better ammunition: the president is the problem, the other, the un-American, them. He’s also been able to reduce Jeb Bush to a quivering mass of jello, make fun of Marco Rubio’s youth, calls Ben Carson a know-nothing, and says that of course Chris Christie knew about the GW Bridge lane closings despite the fact that not one shred of evidence has been credibly produced that he did.

My question, then, is this: Is this what we want in a President? The answer is no.

The simple reason is that not even Donald Trump can continue to run his campaign this way. As soon as Trump stops saying vile things, he’s finished, because the truth is that he really has no platform, no singular idea other than hate, no economic plan, no foreign policy, no domestic policy and a lifetime of conflicting views on issues on which most Republicans will not ever compromise.

Right now he gets a pass at the debates because of the sheer number of GOP candidates still in the race. Come January, the real campaign begins and I’m assuming that Trump is not going to be prepared for it. Voters will want real answers for their economic problems and they’ll want details as to how Trump is going to carry out his plan to throw out 11 million people from this country and what it would take to barricade us so that other people can’t come in.

They’ll want to know what he wants to do with taxes, legal issues, health care and business policy. He’s said some things about these, but the media and the people will demand answers.  And he either won’t have them or he’ll give vague answers or he’ll do what he’s doing now about national security–he’ll try to fake it. This isn’t the midterm or the early semester quiz. It’s the final exam and Trump is going to fail.

In addition, as the GOP field narrows, Trump is going to need to say even more because there will be fewer voices to take up precious airtime. This is where he will falter because he will need to become less radical and say fewer provocative things. Trump has built his campaign on those two pillars. Once he stops, his reason for running will be gone. The Republican Party is hoping that this happens in January before he can do real damage. I’m not sure the party will get its wish, but ultimately the balloon will deflate.

I’ve certainly been caught off-guard by Trump’s durability and political stamina. It’s delayed the ascent of a viable candidate and will only hurt the GOP for as long as his campaign lingers.

But rest assured my fellow Americans, Donald Trump will not be elected president in 2016. And for that, we can be thankful.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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