Day: October 2, 2012

Categories
Politics

Polling and the Debate

The pace of polling has slowed down since last week, but the overall trend is still towards Barack Obama in the swing states. His national numbers are somewhat closer, but Gallup (RV poll) still has him up six and Rasmussen has him leading by one, which is down two points from Monday. New Quinnipiac and CNN polls have Obama ahead by four and three, respectively, and the Washington Times has him up nine.

There has been a great deal of debate in the polling world, that has spilled over into the general population, about poll methodologies and whether the national polling firms are oversampling Democrats to arrive at their numbers. My view is that the polling firms are seeing a shift in the number of people who are identifying themselves as Democrats and are adjusting their findings based on that shift and the overall demographics of the polls they’re taking. It would be counterproductive to say that a pollster such as NBC/WSJ is cooking the numbers because NBC is part of the equation. By that measure, the Washington Times should have Romney ahead since they are a conservative publication, but they have a D-37 R-34 I-29 split while showing Obama with a 50-41% lead. Is the Washington Times in the tank for the president? Scott Rasmussen? The Wall Street Journal (whose pollster was aligned with the Bush Administration)? I would think not. I can certainly understand why some would question a sample that has a D+9 spread, but I would be loathe to assign a diabolical plot to such a poll.

The other clue about the accuracy of the released polls is how the campaigns are acting. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are not smiling easily or walking with the swagger of frontrunners. They are fighting hard for the swing states they need to win and are assiduously making their case for election. President Obama is likewise running thousands of ads in Colorado, Ohio and Florida and fighting for every vote. Neither side is ahead by a substantial margin at this point. The polls will change, but it would be irresponsible to say that they’re accurate only if the candidate you support is leading.

Where does that leave us with the first debate directly ahead? Can debates change people’s minds? Yes, they can. But they seldom do. With Mitt Romney behind in the swing state polls, he needs to have a solid performance against a president who is not as effective a debater as many people think. Romney’s had more recent experience because of the GOP primary debates while Obama has been making speeches, which he’s good at, but he can become wordy and pedantic with some of his answers. In the end, Romney has to convey a narrative that leads voters to believe that the country needs a change in leadership. Obama will need to more forcefully defend his policies and remind voters of the state of the country when he took office. Will likeability also play a role? You bet. And we all have to be on gaffe watch duty in case it provides a turning point.

Enjoy the show.

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Categories
Foreign Policies

Iran’s President Ahmadinejad Admits – Western Sanctions Are Crippling Iran’s Economy

Ahmadinejad is finally admitting that the steep decline in his country’s currency is due to the sanctions imposed by President Obama and other supporting nations. The Iranian president calls the sanctions “psychological pressures.”

In the past few days Iran’s currency, the rial, has lost more than half its value against the U.S. dollar.  It has prompted fears that the economy is on the verge of collapse, crippled by sanctions which means Iran has lost markets where it can export oil. The price of goods has also risen, as many have to be imported.

The U.S. and its allies have imposed the punishing measures in attempts to force Iranian concessions over its nuclear programme, which the West says is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Tehran insists it is for peaceful purposes.

h/t The Daily Mail

Categories
Mitt Romney ObamaCare Politics

Report: Under Romney’s Health Care Plan, Uninsured Will Increase To 72 Million

If there are more uninsured, then more people will use the emergency rooms as their primary care, then more Americans with insurance will be asked to pay more on their policies to cover these emergency room visits by the uninsured, then insurance companies will make more profit from the increase in premiums, then Romney’s plan to put more money in the pockets of the rich will be complete.

The analysis by the Commonwealth Fund, a New York-based health care research foundation, found that under Romney’s health care plan, the uninsured population would soar to 72 million by 2022 — 12 million higher than if nothing had been done at all.

By contrast, if President Barack Obama’s health care law is fully implemented — including complete state participation in the now voluntary Medicaid expansion — the number of uninsured people would drop from 47.9 million in 2011 to about 27.1 million people in 2022, the report estimated.

The Commonwealth Fund produces studies that often cast the national health care law in a favorable light, and spotlight the shortcomings of the American health care system compared to other countries.

Categories
Chris Wallace Paul Ryan Politics

Stephen Colbert Is Angry At “Those Liberal Hacks” At Fox News

Stephen Colbert is angry… well… maybe…! Apparently there are some “liberal hacks” at Fox News who thought they could ask the Republican vice presidential candidate questions in an interview. The nerve!

Ryan, the Republican candidate for vice-president, had a contentious interview with Chris Wallace over the 20 percent across-the-board tax cut he and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney have proposed.

Colbert brushed off a study Wallace cited saying the plan would cost the U.S. $5 trillion over 10 years.

“True, not true, who cares?” Colbert said. “It’s over 10 years. Romney and Ryan will only be in office for eight of those. Let President [Michele] Bachmann worry about it in 2020. That’s what hindsight is for.”

Colbert was also unimpressed by Wallace’s refusal to accept Ryan’s explanation that the cuts were “revenue-neutral” and praised Ryan for saying it would “take too long” to explain the figures behind the proposal.

“Great answer,” Colbert said. “Why is it a great answer? It would take me too long to explain, but trust me, it was a great answer.”

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