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Donald Trump Donald Trump Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics

Mitt Romney Turns Back On Donald Trump’s Debate

If a debate happens in the forest and no one is there to participate, will it make a sound? What’s a Donald to do. His need for exposure to sell his new book is not going to well. Will this actually hurt his book sales?

Word on the street is that Mitt Romney has joined Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul in denying Donald Trump the spotlight he so desperately needs. Donald Trump did not waste any time attacking Romney for the decision not to attend. He released a statement saying;

“It would seem logical to me that if I was substantially behind in the polls, especially in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, I would be participating in the debate. But I can also understand why Gov. Romney decided not to do it.”

With Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum being the only confirmed candidates to the Trump mess so far, maybe they can debate each other. America needs to know who is the biggest loser, Santorum, Trump or Newt?

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Domestic Policies Politics presidential

The Polling Report: December 6, 2011

This article was originally posted on my blog: www.anjfarmer.blogspot .com. If you like it, please visit and read more of my posts.

Since our last episode, on November 6, one year before the national elections, much has changed in the race for president. We are currently in the middle (end? beginning?) of the Gingrich ascendancy, and there is some evidence (from this CBS News poll) that Newt could pull off a stunning comeback win in Iowa, which would put him in terrific position for New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada later in January. So with that appetizing thought in our heads, let’s move on to the main meal.

Obama Job Approval

The latest RealClearPolitics Index of Obama’s job approval is here. Since last month, Obama’s approval has dropped from 45.3% to 43.8% and his disapproval has risen slightly, from 50.7% in November to 50.8% today. A look at the main 3-day averages that RCP uses, Gallup and Rasmussen, shows almost no change in Obama’s improvement. Further, this article puts Obama’s approval lower than Jimmy Carter’s at the same stage in their presidencies. Clearly, this is not good news for the President’s supporters.

Head-To-Head Match-ups

These number tell a much different story. While more Americans disapprove of the job the president is doing, they favor him over every other prospective Republican nominee.

He’s also slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the swing state of Florida, but only by 1 point.

The Republican Field

It’s the Newt show at this point, and that’s a very recent phenomenon, coming on the heels of, and in some ways caused by, the implosion of Herman Cain’s campaign. The numbers are stark and solid, but the real question is, how long will they last?

Perhaps more troubling for Mitt Romney’s campaign are these results from pollsandvotes.com showing Romney’s support actually dropping in the first four states to hold votes next month. If Mitt doesn’t watch out, he might be in a position where a less-than-solid win in New Hampshire could be seen as a failure or a “he’s supposed to win” moment that doesn’t pay off in the long run.

My sense is that Romney will win most of the January states simply because, at this point, Gingrich doesn’t have a presence in these states that would allow him to conduct the retail politics necessary to corral votes. It’s even more uphill for Newt in Iowa, where getting your people to the caucuses is the main concern.  Still, he does have money and is beginning to air TV ads that will reach far more people than getting out and shaking hands.

But Romney also has to be concerned. Conservatives will show up in droves this year, and he could find himself third, behind Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. That would be quite a fall. Romney didn’t think he would have to fight hard for Iowa since he’s been in the state for the past two years, but that’s changed now.

The Ballots

The Electoral College map hasn’t budged since November.

And neither has the Generic Congressional Ballot, which shows Democrats leading Republicans by 1.2%

Although it’s very early in the campaign, Obama’s strategists have mapped out his electoral college strategy, and it looks something like this:

First, the president is aiming to win all the states John Kerry won in 2004. That would bring him to 246 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania’s mother lode of 20. Add New Mexico, which the president won in 2008, and that’s five more electoral votes. Now he’s at 251.

Then it gets hard. The final 19 electoral votes would come through a process of mix and match.

North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona are in the mix, with each showing both promise and peril for Obama’s reelection chances.

That’s it for now. Before I push-off for the holidays (I’ll post another polling report on January 3 for Iowa), let me suggest some gifts for the political junkie in your household. Or in your shoes.

From Amazon, if you’re one of those people who still reads (how 2009!)

Obama curios

Gag gifts.

The best free gift!

Cheers.

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Politics

Maryland Republican Found Guilty Of Voter Suppression Charges

Back in June, we brought you this story of two Republican aides indicted on voter suppression charges. The two, Paul Schurick and Julius Hen­son, were accused of sending over 100,000 robo calls to mostly blacks and minorities in Maryland, telling them not to vote, because Pres­i­dent Obama and the Demo­c­ra­tic con­tender for gov­er­nor, Mr. O’Malley, had already won.

“Hello,” the robo call said, “I’m call­ing to let every­one know that Gov­er­nor O’Malley and Pres­i­dent Obama have been suc­cess­ful. Our goals have been met. The polls were cor­rect, and we took it back. We’re okay. Relax. Everything’s fine. The only thing left is to watch it on TVtonight. Con­grat­u­la­tions, and thank you.”

Well justice is served. Earlier today, a jury of their peers found the first of the two, Mr. Paul Schurick guilty of voter suppression.

A Baltimore jury Tuesday found Paul Schurick, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s campaign manager, guilty of election fraud and related charges for his role in an Election Day 2010 robocall.

The jury found Schurick guilty on all four counts, including election fraud and failing to include an Ehrlich campaign authorization line on the calls. After the verdict was read, Schurick clutched his wife, who burst into tears.

Categories
Politics Republican Rick Scott

Florida’s Rick Scott – The Most Unpopular Governor In America

Governor Rick Scott of Florida. Remember him? The Republican governor who rode into the state on his white Teaparty horse in November 2010, promising to create jobs and providing every household with an unlimited supply of manna from above? Remember him? Well it seems that Floridians have had enough of the far-right ideology that Scott promotes, and plus, the manna was too dry!

In a new PPP poll, Scott’s already low approval ratings fell even further. And according to the PPP, it is not Democrats or Independents causing the sinking feeling in Scott’s Florida – no, it is his fellow Republicans abandoning ship!

PPP Poll found;

Rick Scott has hit a new low in PPP’s Florida polling with only 26% of voters now approving of his job performance to 58% who disapprove. His previous worst numbers had come in June when he had a 33% approval rating with 59% unhappy with his performance. Scott’s numbers with Democrats are pretty much unchanged compared to then and his standing with independents has gotten a little better.  What’s really caused the bottom to drop out for him is that even Republicans are starting to really sour on his leadership. In June Scott had a 63/30 approval spread with them. That’s now dropped all the way down to 46/31.

Scott is the most unpopular Governor in the country in PPP’s polling.

Buyers remorse indeed!

Categories
Donald Trump Donald Trump Newt Gingrich Politics

Book Salesmen And Television Personalities Don’t Really Want To Be President

You listen to these Republicans bitch about the economy, the “failures” of President Obama and how,  if given a chance, they would be able to turn things around. To right what’s wrong in America, and they will do this while giving their inaugural address!

Pay close attention to any of the presidential candidates and you will hear their claims.  “…anyone on this stage can do a better job than this president,”,  Gingrich said at a recent Republican debate. This claim was regularly repeated by Herman Cain and is a staple in many Mitt Romney speeches.

But with just about all these Republican candidates vigorously promoting their “newly released” books, how genuine is their bid for the White House? Will they really give up the financial benefits of being number one on the New York Times Best Sellers List to be the Number One in the white house?

If you look at how these candidates are campaigning, you will understand where their priorities lie. Herman Cain spent more time at book signing events  than he did on the campaign trail, and with the Republican primaries just weeks away, Newt Gingrich, the leader in the Republican field, spent yesterday in New York instead of Iowa where voting is almost set to begin, selling copies of his book and meeting with Donald Trump.

And speaking of Donald Trump. He is promoting his new book, just as he was promoting his television show a few months ago when he lead the Republican field for the nomination. With a new book to sell, Trump is once again capturing the limelight and floating the idea of running for president as an independent. He recently told USA TODAY;

“If they pick somebody who I think can’t win and if they pick somebody who is, in my opinion, the wrong person … and if the economy continues to be bad, I might run as an independent.

If he really believed that he could make a difference, that a Trump presidency would “turn this economy around” like he preached when he was the leader of the pack this past summer, then why didn’t he build on that lead and help save America?

Because, like Newt Gingrich and many of the other Republican candidates, he’s just a salesman doing what the people of his trade  do best – selling. Here’s Trump’s explanation for why he decided not to continue his run for president – basically – he’d have to give up his television show and that was just too much of a sacrifice for a television personality to make;

“Other people don’t give up anything when they run,” he said. “You give up a top, prime-time television show and I don’t want to sound trivial but that’s a lot.”

Sell on guys, your Republican base deserves nothing more.

Categories
Politics Teacher

Lies, Damn Lies, and the Truth About Teacher Tenure

Have you heard the latest story about teachers and tenure? No? It goes like this. A teacher was given stellar evaluations for two and a half years. In the spring of the third year, the principal wrote a savagely negative review of one of the teacher’s lessons because the teacher made comments about how cold their classroom was during the winter, and that  the children were complaining that it was difficult to concentrate. Parents called the principal to complain. The principal was embarrassed and wrote a negative evaluation. The teacher never received tenure.

Never heard that one?

How about this one? A student accused a tenured teacher of using inappropriate language in the classroom. The principal didn’t get along well with this teacher, an officer in the local teacher’s association, and made it abundantly clear that all they needed was an excuse to cause the teacher trouble. After a cursory investigation, the principal recommended that the teacher lose their salary increment for the next year because teachers shouldn’t use foul language in front of students. Two months later, the student admitted lying about the incident because they were upset with a grade they received in the teacher’s class. The teacher was given back the salary increase that was taken from them.

Chances are good that you never heard that story either.

Why do I mention these incidents, both of which actually occurred? Because they illustrate the difference between a teacher having fair dismissal rights and one that does not. They also illustrate the lies and misinformation floating around about what tenure actually means in practice.

Nowhere is this in more vivid view than Tom Moran’s piece in Sunday’s Newark Star-Ledger. It’s essentially a response to an article by Janine Walker Caffrey, the Superintendent of Schools in Perth Amboy, NJ. Both of these writings sound the alarm bells that the public loves to hear. From Moran:

Janine Caffrey, the schools superintendent in Perth Amboy, could hardly believe the teacher was so incompetent.

The kids didn’t have needed textbooks. There was no lesson plan. Other teachers complained that students were learning nothing. And when the principal demanded changes, the teacher wouldn’t budge.

So Caffrey, a spark plug of energy, left her sparsely furnished office to meet the teacher for a showdown, ready to whap some sense into this person once and for all.

But it didn’t work out that way.

“This teacher looked me in the eye and said, ‘I won’t do it.’ Just an outright refusal. And this has happened to multiple people before me. We’ve done multiple corrective action plans, and it’s not achieving any results.”

So the teacher won the showdown and is still standing in front of a classroom full of kids every day, supremely secure in defiance.

Only one word can explain this insanity: tenure.

It certainly sounds horrible, and if the story is true, that teacher should not be teaching in the public schools. The real problem is not tenure, though. It’s buried deep in Morans’ article and it goes like this: 

To be fair, districts share some of the blame as well. Tenure rules might be crazy, but it is possible to get rid of the worst teachers if the district builds a solid case with a paper trail. In the case of the refusenik teacher, Perth Amboy failed to do that. The teacher had won satisfactory evaluations in the past, as nearly all teachers do.

The problem, my friends, is that the principal was not doing their job. There’s no sharing here. If principals are not building cases or informing the teacher’s association representatives that a teacher is a problem, or is having a problem, then the principal is at fault. All on their own. And if the principal or supervisor is routinely giving positive reviews to ineffective or bad teachers, they need to stop. I don’t know where Moran gets his “nearly all teachers” receive satisfactory evaluations data. My guess is that he’s simply repeating what he’s heard. It’s a great story, but he needs to support his statements with facts.

Why is this all on the administration and not the teacher’s union? Because the NJEA has nothing to do with whether a teacher earns tenure. The legislature wrote and passed the tenure laws and school administrators are responsible for implementing them.

Tenure is not a job for life. It’s a guarantee that a teacher cannot be fired for frivolous, personal, vindictive reasons by administrators who don’t like them or need to install a relative in their place.

Tenure is a requirement that a teacher who has earned it is confronted by evidence of misdeed, misconduct or behavior that puts children at risk.

Tenure is earned after working, with positive recommendations by the Superintendent, Principal and, if necessary, Department Supervisor, for three years in the same school district. It shouldn’t be handed out like candy at Halloween, but sometimes it is. And it’s not the teacher’s fault. The responsibility is all on the administrator. And if Superintendents like Janine Caffrey do not build a case, then a bad teacher can only be removed by going through the process, which Moran cites in a nifty chart in his article.

Moran and Caffrey also bring up how much it costs to discipline or fire a teacher who has earned tenure. The NJEA has offered a tenure reform plan that would streamline the process so it would take 90 days at most, as opposed to the possible two plus years it takes now, to settle cases. That would help, but it would do nothing to solve the problem of administrators doling out good reviews to ineffective or bad teachers.

So what to do?

How about having principals and supervisors observe teachers 8 times per year for the first three years (or four years as the NJEA plan proposes) and 6 times a year once they’ve earned tenure? That would create a tremendous amount of data by which a teacher could be evaluated before and after they’ve earned tenure. And since the overwhelming majority of teachers who do earn tenure deserve it and are members of the best teaching staff in the country as measured by national test scores, observing them a few more times might catch the few who would be problems down the road. Another good idea would be to have a teacher’s first year be a residency year, where someone new to the profession could receive help from a qualified mentor. This mentoring could then continue for the next 3 years.

One other issue also rears its head when people discuss tenure, and that’s the question of why teachers have it and other professions don’t. My answer is that other professions should have some kind of objective job protection. The arguments against public workers by governors such as Chris Christie, Scott Walker and John Kasich revolve around the idea that since private sector workers don’t have these benefits, then no workers should have them. They seem to be more concerned with breaking the unions than they do with actually improving education.

That’s backwards.

The decline of unions has meant that workers are more and more at the mercy of management and it’s time that we changed that conversation. Terrible stories, such as the ones in Moran’s article only illustrate one side of the debate. If school management would all do their jobs in an honest, forthright way, we could more readily dismiss ineffective teachers. And that would be a positive step forward for everyone.

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