Category: Foreign Policies

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The August Election

OK, I’ll play along.

According to the polls, the guesses, the conventional wisdom, the money and the low-down, scandal-mongering, hyper-partisan, yellow-dog press, we now know who’s going to win that all-important August 2015 presidential election. I’m sure you know that this election is a rather unusual one in American politics because it doesn’t take place in every state and candidates can say the most outrageous things and still be considered Oval Office material.

We all know that Donald Trump is going to be our next president because he’ll defeat Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton and Jeb! Bush all at one time because he can speak the loudest and say the meanest things out of all of them. Then again, Hillary is beating Donald in the latest national polls and the money race, so she’ll likely be our next Chief Executive. Except that she’s got an e-mail scandal hanging over her and Benghazi! nipping at her heels like a small yippee dog. No worries, though: when you have a FOX contributor on your side, especially one that advised your husband, you’re going to be fine.

Jeb! is having trouble keeping up his fundraising pace and three money people have just left his campaign so he might as well fold up the tent and go live with his brother down in Texas.  Chris Christie is teetering on the edge of being excluded from the varsity debate in September, but he’s 7th in money-raising which means that there are a few very wealthy people who really have nothing to do with their millions than put it on a guy who has nothing to run on. Perhaps his immigration policy, now known as “When Your Fruit Picker Absolutely, Positively Has to Leave Overnight” might gain him some valuable Tea Party votes.

Scott Walker is going to win this election because apparently he can say that he’s going to defeat ISIS and can harangue Democrats all in the same speech. Not bad for a guy who dropped out of college when he could see the light of graduation in front of him or who said that his foreign policy chops were on display when he faced down some protesters on the statehouse steps in Madison.  Makes you think he’ll get nominated, then withdraw from the race in October because, well, Wisconsin needs him more.

This, of course, is all silly conjecture because the real winner of the August election is John Kasich, the moderate Governor of Ohio who manages to say pretty much what every other Republican candidate says but he says it with a nice Ohio accent so he doesn’t sound too threatening.

But wait! Who’s that gaining major ground on the other wealthier candidates? Why, it’s Carly Fiorina! The wonder executive who managed to almost destroy one of Silicon Valley’s most venerable companies. She’s, well, she’s polling in some high single digits and clearly has momentum as we enter the all-important August 31 period of the race. In fact, she’s hoping to make the adult table debate next month but CNN is playing funny with the numbers so we might have to listen to Chris Christie pick a fight with someone again. Maybe he could yell at Ben Carson just to remind people that Ben’s still in the race. Carson is currently in second place in the Iowa polls, so clearly he’s running away with the election and will be the nation’s second African-American president. I do so like consistency.

Sun glasses on campers because who’s just entered the room and will be moving his stuff the shortest distance out of everyone? It’s Vice-President Joe Biden–the savior of the Democrats. The anti-Hillary. The politician-superhero whose special power is to actually work with members of both parties to get something done. Too old? Balderdash; only Republicans can be too old to be president. Joe will win and take his oath of office at Rehoboth Beach on Monday afternoon when there’s no traffic.

Of course, I’m only kidding about those people winning the presidency. The real victor will be Marco Rubio. The young guy. The guy who supports an actual immigration bill. The one who wants to re-isolate Cuba because recognizing the Castros really upsets his dad. The one who would be really tough on China. Until the Chinese market exploded. They’re not so tough after all, right Marco?

Is anybody else running for president? Of course, and they’re all going to win, except for Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Martin O’Neill and George Pataki, who still insists that he is a candidate.

I’m so glad I was able to clear everything up for you because this has been a close election and gee I’m pleased that it’s all going to be over by the middle of the week.

Isn’t it?

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

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BLM Domestic Policies Foreign Policies News Politics

And On Your Left…

With so much of the interesting political maneuvering happening on the right, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that there will be Democratic debates in the fall, and they could be just as interesting as the Republican candidate-a-thons.

While Hillary Clinton still leads in every match-up with one or the other GOP candidate, she’s being pressed by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. Bernie’s doing his best to electrify the base with his talk about tighter government control of banks and higher wages and corporate child care centers and things that the US should already have but doesn’t because the right believes that Americans feel better by earning these things individually and that if you can’t afford them then it’s your fault. Sucker. And now Joe Biden is thinking about a run. He would most likely be a very good president if he could get beyond the verbal improvisations that have haunted him in campaigns past. Yes, there are other candidates running–Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee–but they are having a difficult time breaking through a national media that can only handle a few at a time.

In a twist, this election could see the Democrats painted as the older party, with Hillary, Bernie and Joe all much older than their Republican counterparts. In addition, there’s a bit of a rift going through the left as the Warren-Sanders far left-wing battles with the establishment, more centrist views of the Hillary, and perhaps Biden, wing. There’s been so much attention over the past few years about the yawning divide on the right, that a leftish split is certainly news and could be a potential problem unless the party unites in time for the convention, and that’s pretty much what I would expect to happen.

Hillary’s e-mails are making people nervous and the right will shout Benghazi whenever they get the chance, but on the main issues she seems to have most of the country on her side. Her recent confrontation with Black Lives Matter activists shows her empathetic and realistic, and her contrasting views with Republicans on marriage equality, gender equality, wages, education, climate change and foreign policy experience show her more forward-looking than any of the Republicans who only seem to be able to run negative campaigns.

Democrats need to be careful about being overconfident based on the Obama electoral map, with Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Colorado possibly presenting some serious challenges. Overall, though, demographics do provide the party with an advantage the Republicans will find difficult to overcome.

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Domestic Policies Foreign Policies Healthcare News Politics Wisconsin Union Bashing

Afraid of Rubio? They All Scare Me.

Ooohhh! Scary!!! Yes, The New York Times reported last week that many Democrats are most afraid of a presidential match-up between Hillary and…Marco Rubio.

Scary!!!

And why? Because…he has a story! Scary!!! And he’s good looking. And he’s a good speaker. And he’s Hispanic and his father came here from Cuba and he won big time races in Florida. And he was once friends with Jeb Bush who might or might not have promised not to run for president in 2016, which would have opened a spot for Rubio but Jeb evidently doubled back on that maybe promise and now Marco’s really really really scary angry.

Scary!!!

So why am I so, you know, cool about this whole thing? One reason is that once GOP primary voters wake up they’ll realize that Rubio represents everything the Republicans oppose in…Obama. Scary!!!

One term Senator. Check
Makes a good speech. Check
In his 40s. Check
Supports an immigration overhaul that, scary, would lead to a path to legal status. Check
Not a lot of foreign policy experience. Check

Another reason is that the GOP base wants a bona-fide conservative with a record of tax cutting, union-busting and border fence building and that’s not Rubio.

But aside from that, Democrats should not be singularly afraid of any one candidate. They should be quaking in their boots at the thought of any of the announced or near-announced candidates becoming president. All of them have pledged tax breaks for the wealthy and lower taxes for corporations. They’ve all pledged to repeal the Affordable Care Act with no credible plan to replace it, keep health care costs down, or to continue to cover those who have already signed up for care. Each one would either strongly advocate for, or at least tolerate, religious objection laws for marriage equality and contraception coverage. They would all mandate government interference in women’s reproductive health issues. They oppose higher minimum wages and believe that public workers pensions are negotiable or expendable. And none of them has any credible plan for world order other than genuflecting in front of Benjamin Netanyahu and calling for American troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria. Not to mention climate change denial and the unwavering support of the NRA.

That’s a frightening collection of misguided and misbegotten policies that were derided in the 1980s as outlandish pipe dreams, the subjects of journal articles in the 1990s, adopted as the GOP platform in the aughts and now, as mainstream political thought in the teens.

Making any of them a reality? Scary.

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The Foreign Policy Election

First it was Jeb Bush. Now it’s Marco Rubio. For other Republicans, it’s all about Hillary Clinton and Benghazi. Meanwhile, Scott Walker has tripped over his own feet while discussing the world and Chris Christie, who has something to say about everything, has little to say yet on foreign affairs.

Why is this important? Because 2016 is shaping up to be a foreign policy election. Yes, there will be talk about taxing the wealthy, cutting taxes to the wealthy, what to do about entitlements and the middle class, abortion, immigration and health care, but right now, the world seems to be blowing up and countries are looking to the United States to help fix what ails them.

President Obama has wisely not gotten us involved in a foreign adventure despite calls by the hawkish neocon crowd over on the right to send troops to Syria. And Lebanon. And Iraq. And other places. Which sounds like the good-old-fashioned response that George W. Bush followed and that was a terrible mistake. And it all sounds heroic and noble until the body bags start coming back and the soldiers return with severe damage to their bodies and minds.

What 2016 presents for the country is an opportunity to be creative with our foreign policy. The Cold War has been over for more than 20 years, but the mentality remains, this time with China as the Soviets and North Korea as the Cubans. ISIS is a tremendous threat to Middle East stability, but they are alienating other countries in the region, who are showing more of a propensity to fight on their own. We can support our friends, but right now there is little reason for us to get more soldiers involved.

It will be interesting to see where the debate goes from here. Rand Paul has been championing a more isolationist foreign policy as a basic belief. Hillary Clinton certainly has the experience, but she hasn’t enunciated a specific policy yet. Can Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Martin O’Malley and Bernie Sanders come up with credible ideas? Perhaps, but I’ve come to a conclusion that’s even more true now than it was in 2004.

We should have elected John Kerry as president when we had the chance.

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isil ISIS Politics Syria

Major ISIS Leader Killed in US Special Forces Raid

Another win for America. Another win for the president many Republicans say is “soft on terrorism.”

Islamic State senior commander, Abu Sayyaf, was killed and his wife captured in Syria during a raid by U.S. Special Forces, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said.

The operation in eastern Syria was authorized by President Barack Obama, according to a statement from Carter. He said Abu Sayyaf helped direct Islamic State’s oil, gas and financial operations and that his wife, Umm Sayyaf, was suspected of involvement in the militant group’s activities.

The raid comes after Obama’s meeting at the presidential retreat at Camp David with leaders of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which has expressed concerns about the president’s policies in Syria and Iraq.

“The operation represents another significant blow to ISIL, and it is a reminder that the United States will never waver in denying safe haven to terrorists who threaten our citizens, and those of our friends and allies,” Carter said, using an alternative term for Islamic State.

Abu Sayyaf was killed when he engaged U.S. forces, none of whom were killed or injured, according to the statements from Carter and Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for the White House’s National Security Council. Umm Sayyaf is being held by the U.S. military in Iraq, Meehan said.

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Benjamin Netanyahu Foreign Policies ISIS Israel News Nuclear Security Politics

All Eyes On Israel

We’re going to need our mucking boots today because we’re going to wade into the Middle East. Until now, I have assiduously avoided all mention of the region because it’s messy and confusing and controversial and, quite frankly, my ideas have, shall we say, evolved over time. But the events of the day are far too important and compelling for me to stay away from the issues, so I am now going to opine. With FEEling.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a first and world-class jerk who has no business actually running a government. His comments last week on the eve of the Israeli elections regarding a two state solution with the Palestinians and his warnings about Israeli Arabs voting in droves have only widened the differences between Israel and both the US government and many American Jews. His speech in front of Congress, orchestrated by the House Republican leadership and done without consulting or notifying the Obama Administration, was a new low in political gaming and rogue foreign policy. That the speech almost ended up actually costing Netanyahu his election, and thus his need to play the racist, far-right card, told us that he would do anything to win votes (not a bad thing in and of itself, mind you). His persistent warnings about Iran’s intentions to build a bomb and use it on Israel are complicating the nuclear talks between the US and Iran, and his approval of new Israeli settlements is angering our allies around the world.

And yet…

Netanyahu and his right wing government, is the only institution that is standing between Israel’s future existence and radical, terrorist, anti-Semitic entities that want to destroy it. His focus on Israel’s security is a prerequisite for winning and holding national office and, along with the economy, is the main issue for both domestic and foreign consumption. He’s a strong leader and has been able to navigate his way through the thickets of his country’s political system en route to 4 national election victories.

I support Israel and believe that it must survive and thrive as a testament to its Jewish roots, its democracy, its vibrant culture and its place as an island of hope in a hostile world. I also believe that there should be a state for the Palestinians because the present political and social arrangement is unsustainable and in some cases, inhuman. But now we are stuck because the current state of world affairs is so polarized and unforgiving that any compromise seems impossible. Radical Islamic groups would like nothing more than to see Israel destroyed. Israel needs to confront its adversaries and deserves the right to defend itself against attacks from both rockets and words.

What to do? The easy thing is to say that the Arab and Islamic states need to formally recognize that Israel exists and will continue to exist, and that the Israelis need to recognize that they will have to give up some land that they won in the six-day war of 1967. Militant groups will need to give up their weapons and stop using them against Israel, and Israel will need to loosen some of the border restrictions so that the Palestinians can freely conduct commerce and make their economy grow. Sounds easy, right?

Of course it isn’t and Netanyahu isn’t going to help. He’s going to hold a hard line now and wait to see who the next US president is going to be, hoping it’s someone he can work with, since his relationship with Obama is probably irreparable. I’m sure he’d love to see a more aggressive neo-conservative Republican, but I think Hillary Clinton would fit the bill too.

In the meantime, he’ll continue to oppose anything that might threaten Israel and will oppose any agreement with the Iranians. And there will be an agreement with the Iranians because deep down I think the Iranians want an agreement on their nuclear program. The Iranian economy is in shambles because of sanctions and the middle class (yes, there is a middle class) is demanding a place in the larger world. A nuclear agreement would also hold the Iranians to specific actions and inspections that, while there are many who say they will ultimately ignore any limits, will require Iran to play by the world’s rules if it wants to be taken seriously. I could be utterly misreading the politics, but I don’t think so. Attacking Israel with a nuclear weapon will only invite Iran’s destruction. They clearly don’t want that.

The prospects for genuine peace in the region look about as bleak as they ever have, and it will probably take a new generation of leadership to improve them. Of course, weren’t we saying the same thing in the 1970s?

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Nuclear Security

John Kerry: “Substantial Progress” Made in Iran Nuclear Talks

It’s Saturday, so I’m going to do what I can to upset a few Republicans. Here’s one story that is sure to achieve that goal – according to US Secretary of State, there is “substantial progress” being made in the Iran nuclear talks. Watch Republicans flip out on this good news!

The United States and Iran reported significant progress Saturday toward a nuclear agreement, with the Iranian president declaring a deal within reach. America’s top diplomat was more reserved, leaving open whether world powers and Tehran would meet a March 31 deadline.

Speaking after a week of nuclear negotiations in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry challenged Iran to make “fundamental decisions” that prove to the world it has no interest in atomic weapons. Amid conflicting statement by officials about how close the sides were, Kerry said, “We have an opportunity to try to get this right.”

The talks “have made substantial progress,” Kerry told reporters, “though important gaps remain.” Talks with Iran resume next week.

In Tehran, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was more optimistic. “Achieving a deal is possible,” he said. “There is nothing that can’t be resolved.”

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Elected, Perchance to Govern?

Mitch McConnell, moderate. I thought I’d never see that characterization, but after last week’s embarrassing, incompetent, dangerous gambit the House Republicans played, he’s looking like the only GOP adult in the room. John Boehner seems to have lost his caucus and is now dependent on the far right to dictate what gets done in the House, and what’s getting done is virtually nothing. Kicking the Homeland Security funding argument to this week will do nothing except make Friday night another frantic opportunity for brinkmanship and Obama-bashing. In the end, Homeland Security will get funding and the president’s immigration changes will stand. The real losers will be the people who work for the agency as they bite their nails and wait to see if they’ll be getting paid for another week. If terrorists read American news sources, they are surely laughing at us.

Not content to make itself look bad on the domestic front, the Republicans doubled down and asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to come and speak to a joint session of Congress, an honor he will deliver this week. Never mind that his visit, essentially a jab at the Obama administrations efforts to negotiate a nuclear treaty with Iran, will only put more on strain US-Israel relations, although there are reports that things might be getting less strained. Mr. Netanyahu, I’m sure, will have important things to say. The problem is that he might want to think twice before attaching himself to the clown car Congress that can’t seem to find money to pay for homeland security, much less debate a serious issue like a possible Iranian nuclear weapon.

This is also the week that the Supreme Court will hear arguments in King v. Burwell, the case that challenges whether the federal government can give subsidies to people who buy health insurance on the federal exchange. The plaintiffs believe that only those who buy policies on state exchanges should get subsidies. Which of course begs the question, if the court rules for the plaintiffs, will they work feverishly to make sure that the states without exchanges set them up quickly so the law can work and millions of people can keep their health care?

Of course not.  This is most likely the final attempt to destroy a law that is working wonderfully and is fundamentally changing the health care landscape for the better. Also, the states that would suffer the most if the subsidies are struck down will be the poorest, reddest states in the country. You know, the ones whose citizens vote against their interests by electing governments that seek to limit the programs their people desperately need.

And the state that would suffer the most? Florida. Does Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio have a fall back plan if millions of Floridians lose their health insurance? No. Do both of them want to be president? Of course, but what a catastrophe either of them would be.

And finally, this week will see the rollout of the PARCC tests across the nation. School districts are hoping that their technology holds up and that students can navigate the many screen they’ll need to use in order to answer the questions. Some families have decided that they don’t want their students to participate, so they’ve opted out, or “refused” to take the tests as the officials like to characterize it, The testing will take almost three weeks and then return in late April or early May, taking more valuable time and resources from classrooms and actual learning. The tests will mean almost nothing to students, but for teachers, they will count for 10% of their yearly evaluation (in New Jersey, at least). I give these tests five years, and then the education establishment will move on to something newer.

March is certainly roaring in.

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Benjamin Netanyahu Israel Politics

Top Black Democrats will Skip Netanyahu’s Republican Speech

All Democrats in Congress should be preparing to skip this speech. Doing so has nothing to do with Israel or the relationship that country has with America, skipping the speech will however emphasize the blatant disrespect shown by Boehner and his Republican party, and the disrespect Netanyahu is showing apparently has for the American political process.

So far, only certain high ranking members of the Congressional Black Caucus plan to skip the speech.

Reps. John Lewis (D-Ga.), the civil rights icon, and G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.), the chairman of the CBC, said they won’t attend Benjamin Netanyahu’s March 3 speech before Congress to protest Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) decision to invite the prime minister without first consulting President Obama and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill.

Butterfield said that move marked an “unprecedented overreach of the Speaker’s authority” that “goes beyond the traditions of his office.”

“It is baffling that Speaker Boehner, who incessantly proclaims executive overreach by the president, would buck long standing diplomatic protocol to extend such an invitation,” Butterfield said in a statement.

“His actions unnecessarily politicize our steadfast relationship with Israel, and potentially subvert U.S. foreign policy,” he added. “The United States is and will remain Israel’s strongest ally. However, I refuse to be a part of a political stunt aimed at undercutting President Obama.”

In an interview with the Associated Press, Lewis delivered a similar message.

“I think it’s an affront to the president and the State Department what the speaker did,” Lewis told the AP.

Both lawmakers emphasized that they are not organizing a formal boycott, but had made the personal decision to steer clear of the speech.

“The only thing I can control is my attendance,” Butterfield told the AP.

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Benghazi democrats Mitt Romney Politics

EXCLUSIVE: MITT ROMNEY OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016

As seen on America The Not So Beautiful

By Mike Caccioppoli

This is a very exciting day at America The Not So Beautiful as Mitt Romney has chosen this blog to formally announce that he will be running for President in 2016. He told me that he hopes the third time is the charm and that he has learned from his past errors. He wants to explain why he is running and point out what he could do better than President Obama if he is elected President of the United States. But I really don’t want to take up any more of his time so ladies and gentlemen here is Governor Mitt Romney!

Thank You Mike. I’m so glad that you allowed me this wonderful venue to announce my candidacy for President of these United States in the year 2016. I agree that America isn’t very beautiful under the leadership of Barack Obama. Now everyone already knows my faults. It’s already been spoken about ad nauseum in past election cycles. The fact that I was fully behind the Vietnam war, even marched in favor of it, but of course I did not serve my county. Instead I went to France, a wonderful country and expressed my love for my beautiful wife Ann. Everyone has seen those photos of myself on the beach in the south of France, where they have this wonderful little film festival called “The Cannes Film Festival”. I wrote in the sand “I Love Ann” with a big heart around it and paid someone 10 grand to photograph it from above. Yes, you have all seen that photo that was taken while our brave soldiers were dying for a great cause in Vietnam.

But we have already debated that photograph and I ask Americans to simply move on please. Just place that in your binders of thoughts and memories and please move on. I realize now that I should have been more discreet and just taken a photo of my young, taut body in a bubble bath. I mean I could have written Ann’s initials in the bubbly soap to show my love and undying affection for her. Yes, that would have sufficed, I understand now.

I know I took a very big hit with those comments at the social club. Where in front of millionaires I said that 47 percent thing. I said that 47 percent of Americans just want hand outs from the government and that Barack Obama would give them that. I have been thinking very much about that comment and I now realize I was wrong. It’s really only 45 percent. How insensitive of me to say that 47 percent are takers when it is really only 45 percent. I have learned from that mistake, and have met the two percent that convinced me they are workers not takers. So yes the number is most definitely 45 percent. I’m sorry that I offended two percent of America that didn’t deserve it. Truly sorry.

People feel, I’m sorry…..felt, that I was out of touch with most ordinary people. One reason I believe is that I only paid 13 percent tax while the middle class often pays 25-35 percent. Even though I believe that I’m still giving away much more money since I’m a multi-millionaire, I understand that it doesn’t look good. Especially since I only pay those taxes when I’m running for President. Otherwise I really don’t pay anything. Anyway I have decided that this is insensitive to the middle class and so I paid 14 percent this year.  Believe me that extra one percent adds up to quite a bit of cash since I’m a multi-millionaire. I hope this proves that I’m a friend of the middle class and with that extra money leaving my accounts I do understand the hardships you feel on a daily basis. I really do. This should put aside any more questions or negative ads in regards to my taxes.

Now that I have put all of this silly business behind me I’d like to show you why I could do better than the current Democratic administration if you would so kindly elect me President. I had said in my previous campaign that the economy would be destroyed if Barack Obama was elected for another four years. Since that time gas prices have plummeted while the stock market has soared. Unemployment continues to decline month by month. While jobs are being created every month in the 150-200K range. This is all pretty much the opposite of what I said would happen throughout the campaign and debates. You have all done an admirable job of trying to prove me wrong and I believe I pushed you in that direction through my brilliant psychology that I learned in the best schools since the age of five. I vocalize negative comments and this motives you, it motivates you to do better, the wonderful American people. So, just imagine what we could do together if I were actually President! The possibilities are endless.

My words might have been wrong but my heart was in the right place. Speaking of heart I just need to remind everyone that I do love Ann. I just love Ann.

Some people think I’m running again because I have so much money that I don’t know what to do with it. This couldn’t be further from the truth. I’m running for many honorable reasons but the most honorable is to protect this country from terrorists and to retain our freedoms. Barack Obama didn’t have the money to solely distribute “The Interview” but I do. This would show the terrorists that we are strong and not weak. And unlike the President I have indeed ridden horses bare chested like Vladimir Putin. This shows manliness and strength and power. I have ridden Ann’s ponies bare chested, I love Ann, I do love Ann.

I believe I have made my points. I’m a true protector of the middle class. I now believe in simple bubble bath selfies over wasteful high angle helicopter shots. I think only 45 percent of this great country are takers. I now pay my 14 percent of taxes when I run for President. Yes the economy is incredibly strong but I can make it stronger with my ability to personally distribute any film that is censored or banned because of terrorism. This is the new Mitt Romney. Please vote for me in 2016 to be the next President of the United States.

Oh and before I go……Benghazi! 

Mike.Caccioppoli@yahoo.com

@CaccioppoliMike

Visit America The Not So Beautiful

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The Pendulum Swings Both Ways

 

It took about 35 years, but the Republican Party is just where it wants to be. They have a Congressional majority and are flush with the optimism of a political movement that they believe has broad popular support. They are looking forward to perhaps winning the presidency in 2016 and finally being able to implement the agenda that Ronald Reagan gave voice to in 1980. Democrats are supposed to be on the run. President Obama is spent.

It’s a nice tale, this one. The problem is that it’s full of inaccurate assumptions and leaves out the fact that the Republican Party is split and the far right has so far given no indication that they are in any mood to compromise. They will pass bills and send them to the president, and he will veto most of them. Obama will propose legislation that the Congress will not consider. In many ways, the gridlock will continue.

But there is cause for optimism on both sides. The GOP knows that they will be burnt toast in 2016 if they can’t pass some kind of immigration bill that allows people to stay in this country with their families. They also know that they are on the wrong side of history when it comes to marriage equality and that very soon most southern states will be forced to recognize all marriages performed in other states. After all, this is the party that wants government out of people’s lives and wants United States citizens to be free to follow the lives that they choose to live.

On health care, the Republicans will vote one more time, probably within a week or so, to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Then they will need to get serious about how they would implement health care without taking it away from the approximately 10 million people who’ve bought it on the exchanges or qualified for it under the expanded Medicaid program. It is true that the party could wait until the Supreme Court rules in June on whether people who bought policies on the federal exchange qualify for subsidies, but I believe that they will be disappointed. Supreme Court justices read the news and they know that denying people subsidies would cause a mammoth disruption in the lives of millions of people. John Roberts will once again come to President Obama’s rescue and provide the fifth vote to uphold the law.

Democrats have essentially lost the fracking debate because not enough people are having their tap water catch fire to offset the millions of people who are now paying $2.00 for unleaded gasoline. Yes, Governor Cuomo outlawed fracking in New York State last year, but that will mean that upstate will remain an economic wasteland for years to come, but at least will have casinos so people with little money can lose it on their own rather than having to pay higher taxes.

The low gas prices will also make the XL Pipeline a moot point. There is little need now to push for more oil when oil producing states will be experiencing budget crises over the next year or so. If anything, many Republican lawmakers will need to hope that gas prices moderate a bit so they can pay for the services their constituents sorely need. That was a joke, by the way. In the end, though, low gas prices will provide a nice boost to the economy and another boost to American foreign policy, which will see much more pain for Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

What the GOP cannot argue, thought, is that much of this optimism and hope will greatly help President Obama. The economy is already improving and having people spend less on gas will help it more. Does the right believe that people will give the president no credit? If Russia and Iran have to pull back their dastardly initiatives because of falling revenue, does the GOP believe that they will get credit for that? Of course not. The president gets the blame when things go wrong and the credit when things go right, and an expanding economy is the number one issue on most Americans’ minds.

Perhaps this is the moment when both parties realize that they do need to work together if they want to achieve anything, and activists on both sides will need to recognize that they will have to give something up in order for legislation to move forward. I can confidently say that there will be no broad tax cut this year, nor will an immigration bill contain a path to citizenship. There will be no carbon tax or an increase in the gasoline tax. The Common Core is not going away. Neither is Social Security or Medicare.

Our country was born of compromise. It’s the only way we will move forward.

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Barack: Hack Attack Lacks Tact, but Raoul Is Cool

As I said before, it really doesn’t feel like the holidays, and with the events of the past week I would guess that others are wondering where the spirit went. Or when it’s really going to arrive.

The Sony hacking is certainly a wake-up call for anyone who doubts the severity of our online, privacy-free, abc123 password-protected culture. That a foreign government, and one that we consider to be a running joke, could inflict such pain on us and our free time is disturbing and frightening. Sony employees are rightfully feeling exposed, not to mention that, evidently, Hollywood backstabbing culture is still alive and well as evidenced by the hacked e-mails from company executives.

Honestly, though; did the creators of The Interview really have to use actual names? One of the first rules of comedy, or at least the ones I learned, was that funny comes from imagination and suggestion, rather than always bashing someone on the head with facts. I’m not in favor of naming any world leader and then killing them on film unless that’s what actually happened to them. It would have been more funny if the film’s creators had made up a country and a leader, given him the same hairdo, so that, yes, even American audiences would have recognized who the character was supposed to be, and done the film that way. Killing a real name? Bad form, no matter who it is.

President Obama has promised a proportional response, but I’m not sure what that means in this context. A proportional cultural action is not really possible given North Korea’s film industry, which seems to consist of one person with a camera following Kim Jong-un around all day. We could also hack into their e-mail and read more messages that promise a fiery death to America. That’s comedy.

And while we’re speaking of hermit countries who whine over Olympic sanctions, President Obama’s Cuba gambit is everything that absolutely drives the Republicans nuts about the man. Just when they think they have him humbled by the terrible results of last month’s congressional elections, the president comes out and reminds everyone that the executive is an equal branch to the others and has certain powers at its disposal. And make no mistake about his announcement; this is a big deal that will reshape the hemisphere in the short term and the world in the long term.

Raul Castro can say all he wants about how Cuba is going to stay a Communist country. In 10 years he might be gone and Cuba will have a capitalist economy and, I’m thinking, democratic reform. Yes, I know that many pundits are saying that Cuba will be like China or Vietnam — one party states that allow their people to get wealthy while repressing them politically.

I’m, guessing otherwise. My sense is that proximity to the United States will work in freedom’s favor by blunting foreign adventurers who want to gain some favor on the island. Vladimir Putin might want to play the history card, but we will never stand for that. And it’s likely that we will do all we can to blunt China’s influence too. In fact, our main competitors in Cuba will be other Latin American countries who already see a compatriot waking up and wanting to join the region’s economic system. No, Cuba will be different. There will be growing pains, but it will be different.

Back in Congress, Obama had masterfully put the Republicans back in their Cold War box. By opposing his opening to Cuba, he’s reinforced the idea that the right has no new ideas on what to do about the island and would continue the embargo for another 50 years if they could find a way to win a presidential election during that time. Senator Marco Rubio’s fiery response is exactly the wrong message at a time when economic and cultural engagement are what’s needed.

Besides, it wasn’t that long ago when the right wing was lauding Vladimir Putin and his shirtless foreign policy that seemed to compare favorably with Obama’s more composed, measured approach. That’s what always backing the hare in a marathon will get you. Putin is lording over an economy that is tanking, while the United States has seen steady growth for the past six years, and now with an added bonus of rising wages. Gas prices are sharply down. The XL pipeline might become superfluous if they go any lower. The US is a major contributor to a landmark climate agreement. Things can turn around quickly in this world.

Gee, maybe it’s feeling holidayish after all.

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