Category: Barack Obama

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

The Issue With Issues

Remember when Paul Ryan’s selection meant that the 2012 campaign was going to be about issues? Like the “Scott Brown Means the End of Healthcare” and “The Supreme Court Will End Obamacare” narratives, this one also might turn out to be wrong. So far this is a campaign about Mitt Romney tripping over his own tongue and Paul Ryan trying to sweep it up from the floor. At some point, though, Mitt will stop saying destructive things and President Obama will need to confront the economy, so this race has some tread on it going forward. Given the polls, though, Romney had better step hard on the gas, and soon.

The Medicare debate does not seem to be hurting Romney in Florida, at least according to the latest poll from the Miami Herald. That’s good news for the Republicans. The problem is that they’re not saying exactly how they would pay for those over 55 to stay on traditional Medicare while weaning those younger onto a voucher system (a teat of a different size?). Perhaps the elderly voters have already internalized that they wouldn’t be touched by the Romney/Ryan plan, so why oppose it? Those who would fall into the voucher zone have plenty of reason to be nervous, suspicious and demanding of details. I wouldn’t hold my breath. This is the same team that says they aren’t going to tell us what taxes they’re going to cut until they get elected. If the polls are correct, that could be years from now.

The economy, which was supposed to be the downfall of the president, doesn’t seem to be hurting him at this point, but there’s still time for the GOP to highlight it every day and remind people about the unemployment rate and the deficit. Mitt’s 47% comments didn’t help him and several polls have shown that Americans now say that Obama would be the better candidate when it comes to fixing our economic house. This is a huge turnaround since the spring and, with women and more enthusiastic Democrats, is providing him with the polling bump he’s received since the Democratic National Convention. Keep in mind that there are two more employment reports to be released between now and election day, so the danger isn’t past for Obama. But now a plurality of voters think that Mitt Romney is an out-of-touch rich guy who can’t be trusted on jobs, so he has his work cut out for him if he hopes to catch up.

Neither party has highlighted the old standby social issues of abortion, marriage equality and prayer in schools, so we’ve been spared the usual fights over who’s more moral. Part of that, I think is that the GOP understands that most young people don’t want to fight those fights and most older people have already staked their territory on those issues. Whatever the reason, it’s good news.

The presidential debates are next week and I’m sure we’ll get an earful on the issues from both candidates. The conventional wisdom says that debate gaffes, missteps or forceful performances will affect people’s votes. The research says that’s not really true. That’s not good news for Romney, who is behind in the key swing states and needs a defining moment to build upon for the final six weeks of the campaign.

With most voters having made up their minds, and with a small slice of independents still on the fence, this election could turn on a mistake by either candidate, so look for them to play it safe and stick to well-worn scripts. It’s not the most interesting way to conduct a campaign, but it’s the system we have.

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

Homer Simpson Votes for Mitt Romney – His Reasoning…? Video

Was it the magic underwear? Or was it Obamacare? Watch as Homer Simpson enters the voting booth and explains his choice for President 2012.

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

President Obama Outraises Mitt Romney in August

For the first time in five months, the millions of Americans supporting President Obama’s re-election beat out the handful of billionaires trying to buy or steal the presidency for Mitt Romney. CNN reports;

– President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign and supporting committees brought in more than $114 million last month – the first time the incumbent has outraised his opponent, Gov. Mitt Romney, since April.

Obama’s Campaign Manager Jim Messina announced the figure for August late Sunday night.

Romney’s campaign brought in $111 million last month.

But for three months in a row – June, July, August – Romney’s camp brought in more than $100 million, with $106 million in June and $101 million in July.

“No celebrating, because they’re going to have an even bigger September. But now we know we can match them, doing this our way,” tweeted the Obama campaign.

August’s fundraising statistics mark a drastic improvement for the Obama campaign.

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Barack Obama Politics

The Wizardry of President Obama – ” Picture

AP Photo.

This photo of President Obama has not been doctored in any way. It was taken at a campaign event and shows a light behind the president. We’re not saying what that light may represent, we’ll leave that up to you. 🙂

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Barack Obama Dick Cheney Politics

Dick Cheney Humor – Claims President Obama is “One Of Our Weakest Presidents”

As you read this, keep in mind that the worst terrorist attack on American soil happened under the watchful eyes of Dick Cheney and George Bush. And keep in mind that President Obama’s foreign policy on terrorist have led to more legitimate terrorists captured and or killed in four years, than in Bush’s entire eight years.

With those two facts in mind, read the humor of Dick Cheney.

“Obviously am not a big fan of President Obama,” the former vice president told ABC News. “I think he’s been one of our weakest presidents. I just fundamentally disagree with him philosophically. I’d be hard put to find any Democratic president that I’ve disagreed with more.”

Even Jimmy Carter, Cheney was asked? “Yes,” he said.

Of course, the feeling is no doubt mutual; Obama and his backer say the policies of Cheney and President George W. Bush in Iraq and elsewhere lowered U.S. standing in the world.

Cheney did give Obama credit for the raid that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, but said the intelligence that led to that action came from programs developed from the Bush administration.

He also criticized Obama’s decisions to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan.

“We should not be running for the exits. We should not be turning our backs on our friends in that part of the world,” he said.

Cheney will not be delivering a critique of Obama at next month’s Republican convention; ABC reported that he plans to skip the proceedings.

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Barack Obama Politics

Registered and Likely: A Tale of Two Voters

A number of polls have been released in the past few days that continue to show the presidential race to be very close. What’s worth discussing at this point is the difference between polls that measure registered voters (RV) and those that have switched over to likely voter (LV) models. There’s a terrific article by Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost/Pollster that discusses this issue and he comes to some interesting, and ultimately unsatisfying conclusions. From the article:

The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now?

The answer, in part:

These “measures of engagement and intention to vote are useful as indicators of likely turnout on the aggregate level” at this stage in the campaign,” Pew Research associate research director Michael Dimock explained to The Huffington Post in June, “but they are only loosely predictors of whether an individual is or is not likely to vote this November.”

“As we get closer to Election Day,” he added, “particularly after the conventions and into the debate season — these indicators become stronger.”

With this in mind, let’s take a look at some recent polls that use LV models. Purple Strategies released a number of swing state polls showing Obama leading in Ohio (+3), Virginia (+2) and Colorado (+1) and Romney leading in Florida (+3). All of these results are within the margin of error and seem to suggest that Obama does well in states where he polls well with women and lags where men and independents do not support him. The Florida results are also in line with a Mason-Dixon poll that also uses an LV model and shows Obama with a 1 point advantage. Likewise, a new Rasmussen poll of Virginia also shows Obama with a small lead of 47-46%.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll uses an LV model and shows Romney with a 1 point lead today, within the margin of error.

If it’s true that Republicans tend to do better with LV models, then we can assume that Obama is truly ahead in the states where he leads and that Romney will need to move the dials a bit to overtake him.

On the RV side, a new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey gives Obama a 49%-38% lead while slightly oversampling Republicans. New Jersey is D 33/R 20/I 47 while the poll was D 34/R 24/ I 37.

Presumably, even if Quinnipiac went to an LV screen, Romney would not be within threatening distance of the president. My view is that New Jersey will remain blue this November.

A PPP Poll of Iowa has Obama leading by 48-43% with a D 35/ R 34/ I 30 split, when in reality, Iowa breaks D 31/ R 32/ I 37. PPP, which has a Democratic leaning house effect, has also slightly underpolled Republicans and overpolled Democrats. This leads me to believe that Iowa will probably lean Romney once polls move to an LV model.

At this point in the campaign, using likely voter models do not seem to be diverging a great deal from polls that use registered voters. As we get closer to the campaign’s major events, that will change. Romney has yet to choose a running mate, and that will help his numbers. The conventions will also provide major bumps for both candidates, as will the results of the first televised debate. If voters are settling in on one candidate, that will become evident by the middle of September, and as long as respondents tell the truth about their voting habits (what is the percentage of people who lie about such things?) we’ll get a fairly accurate view of any election trends.

Right now? Enjoy the summer, baseball and the Olympics.

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

Obama Vs Romney – Insourcing Vs Outsourcing. You Choose

A new ad by the Obama campaign draws a contrast between the President and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The narrator in the ad begins by saying, “what a president believes matters.” He then goes on to describe how Mitt Romney was a “pioneer in outsourcing American jobs to low wage countries.”

Compare that to President Obama, who the narrator says “believes in insourcing” and “saved the auto industry.” The President also “favors tax cuts for companies that bring jobs home.”

In an economy that need jobs, seems the choice is obvious. Insourcing vs Outsourcing? Obama vs Romney – You choose!

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Barack Obama Politics

If You Can’t Stand The Heat…

Do you remember the pundits and knobheads who, only a few short months ago, compared Barack Obama to LeBron James? Their major point was that both of them were overhyped, overpriced, underperforming, middling losers who were somehow primed to disappoint their fans and constituents. These know-nothings were sure that neither man would ever rise to greatness.

Look how that turned out.

I can understand disagreeing with a politician over issues or policy or implementation and not liking an athlete because of his style, team or relations with the public. But the comparison of these two obviously talented men moves beyond these fair points and veers off into, well, what? Jealousy? Contempt? Disdain? Outright hatred? Where’s the respect for what they’ve accomplished? Obama’s rivals give some grudging admission that he’s a political force, but then dismiss him as a guy with a pretty voice. LeBron’s detractors focus on his subpar performance in last year’s NBA finals without regard to his place as the game’s number one attraction and performer (on both ends of the court).

It’s disturbing, and now that LeBron has forever earned his place in NBA history and Obama his obvious place in the political realm, it’s time to expose the naysayers as the bad losers they are. Clearly they underestimate these two exceptional men who are at the pinnacle of their fields. It’s true that Obama might lose, but I’m not going to bet against him. He has more skill than Mitt Romney and right now we’re in the equivalent of the early playoffs in the presidential race. In September, you’ll see a different Obama; confident and pugnacious against an opponent who’s never played in the big leagues before. That’s a mismatch.

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

Black Vs Mormon – The Obama / Romney Dilemma

Jodi Kantor of The New York Times points out that a little history is about to happen in American politics. With President Barack Obama running for reelection as a Democratic and Mitt Romney of the Mormon faith running as a Republican “extremely Conservative” Republican, this would be the first time neither party’s candidate is a white Protestant.

” Both sides face the specter of longstanding prejudices that no ad, slogan or speech may be able to dispel. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey conducted last week, 27 percent of those polled said that having a Mormon president raised concerns for them or someone they know, and 12 percent said the same for a black president. Some voters say outright that they will not vote for Mr. Obama because he is black; others make jokes about Mr. Romney belonging to a cult.”

“…After one successful campaign and three plus years in the White House, Mr. Obama and his team’s painful early internal debates on how to handle race have given way to more settled patterns. But Mr. Romney’s camp is divided on the question of how much he should speak about his personal faith. Some in his circles, including many Mormons, argue that his religion is nothing to hide and helps mitigate the caricature of him as a cruel capitalist. Mr. Romney’s political advisers, few of whom are Mormon, are more cautious, arguing that religion should be off the table.

“We as a society have decided to judge people on their actions and not based on where they go to church or the color of their skin,” said Stuart Stevens, Mr. Romney’s top strategist. “It’s true when you apply for a job, it’s true when you apply for a driver’s license and it should be true when you run for president.”

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney Politics

The Campaign Cometh – Brace Yourself

If anything is clear about the presidential election so far, it’s that nothing is very clear at all. We have reached the first phase of the campaign where the key is for both candidates to define themselves and each other in diametrically opposite terms. Where does the race stand so far?

Both men are winning North Carolina, according to the latest polls. This might have something to do with both of their policy pronouncements concerning marriage equality, which seems to be hurting Obama in some polls, but the long-term trend in the country points decisively towards more people accepting marriage equality. In the end, if most North Carolinians voted to ban marriage equality and Obama just came out in support of it, that leads me to believe that the state might be out of his reach.

Electoral College projections have been fairly consistent so far, with Obama leading 243-170 in RCP (Wisconsin was just moved from Obama back to toss-up), by 303-235 at electionprojection.com and by 284-170 at HuffPost/Pollster. Most of those state polls were taken last month, so let’s see what May’s data shows. Mitt has seen a bump since the primaries ended and that will probably raise his state profiles a bit.

And what about the issues of the day? That depends on the issue. Obviously the economy is the country’s number one concern and my view is that May’s jobs numbers, to be released in June, might be his last opportunity to claim that the employment picture is improving sufficiently to show that the economy is moving in a positive direction. Most people will not pay attention in July and August, although if gas prices drop enough, people might feel better about their prospects for the fall.

Word now is that the GOP is going to press the debt battle over the summer and force the president’s hand on raising the debt ceiling, which really doesn’t need to be done until December. John Boehner believes that this is a winner for his party, but I’m not so sure. Much of this election will also be fought over Medicare and if Obama frames the issue correctly, he can run against any severe cuts the Ryan budget proposes. He can also say that Romney favors the wealthy and the military over health care. If the Supreme Court invalidates the health care law, then Romney will have a freer hand to say he’ll keep the most popular parts of the law (both of them) and make responsible additions once he’s elected.

If the Republicans really want to lose this election though, then running anti-Obama ads focusing on Reverend Jeremiah Wright, as reported in Thursday’s New York Times, is just the way to do it. As a strategy, this might appeal to the far right wing of the party, but these ads will spark a tremendous backlash against Romney. Americans like Barack Obama, but are not terribly pleased with his policies. Going after him personally is exactly the wrong way to defeat him. Plus, I’m sure there will also be ads aimed at his support for marriage equality. Has the Republican Party gone so far right that they think it would benefit them to run a racist, anti-gay campaign? It’s possible, but I’m thinking that cooler heads will prevail and will be able to walk them back from the precipice. Mitt’s already come out against the ads. Let’s hope that’s enough to convince the PAC not to run them.

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Barack Obama Politics Ronald Reagan

These People are Not Reagan Republicans, These People Are Impostors

Ronald Reagan, the god of the Conservative agenda, said this, “do you think the millionaire ought to pay more than the bus driver or less?” The audience is heard in the background screaming, “MORE!”

The clip below compares what was said back in the 1980’s under the Reagan Republican presidency, to what is said now under the Obama Democratic presidency. The similarities between the two presidents on the issue of taxes are uncanny, and those similarities are what we now refer to as the Buffett Rule – asking the wealthiest among us to pay more in taxes than the average bus driver or secretary.

Today’s version of the Republican party believes that the poor should pay more than the rich and they go out of their way – even signing various pledges – to make sure the rich gets more at the expense of the poor… a move often called class warfare.

So while praising their leader, we will never hear today’s Republicans talk about Reagan’s position on taxes because these people are of a totally different breed than Reagan. The people we see  masquerading around as Republicans are what we can affectionately call impostors!

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Barack Obama Politics

Bill Clinton – President Obama is “Gonna Win Handily.”

Former President Bill Clinton told ABC News that unless something catastrophic happens, he predicts President Obama will win his re-election “handily.”

Former president Bill Clinton told ABC News that he largely agrees with this assessment, that President Obama will be re-elected.

“I think that he’s gonna win handily, and I have for a long time,” Clinton told ABC News in an exclusive interview. “I actually have since the 2010 elections. Which made me sad, but…what the right-wing says always sounds better when they’re sayin’ it than when they’re doin’ it. So I thought after the 2010 elections, they basically assured his reelection.” As for the unknowns, the former president said, “you could have a crisis in the Eurozone, and because American banks have big investments in European banks, that could hurt us. You could have a crisis in Iran blow up in a way that, you know, added $50 a barrel to oil prices. Even though we’re producing more oil than ever before, you see? And the world is clearly worried about that. ‘Cause you saw all those people talkin’ about takin’ down their oil reserves.”

“There’s always something that could happen,” he continued. “But even if that happens– most Americans believe the president’s done a good job on national security. I obviously think he’s got a great national security team….So I’d be very surprised if an intervening event derailed the path I think this election’s on.”

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