Day: February 27, 2012

Categories
Arizona Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Polling Report: Special Michigan and Arizona Edition

This week’s report begins with a question:

What would you call a candidate who LOST the following primaries: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Texas, New York, Massachusetts, California, Florida and Michigan?

How about, Mr. President.

That’s right. Candidate Barack Obama lost every one of those primaries, and more, in 2008 yet won the nomination. That’s why I’m not getting agitated over the latest results of the Republican race. As I’ve said over and over and over and over, Mitt Romney will be the GOP’s nominee in 2012 even if he loses some big states. Granted, Michigan is different for Mitt; he’s claiming pseudo-residency in the state and has set it up as a make-or-break contest. Obama at least won his home state, Illinois, so the comparison isn’t perfect. But still, the national media’s focus on whether Rick Santorum can win the nomination is a moot point. He can’t, and he won’t. To further muddy the picture, though, I will say that if he does manage to win it, the GOP will have committed hari-kiri.

The past three weeks have seen some extraordinary developments in the Republican Presidential Primaries. Rick Santorum caught fire (and brimstone) as the new, and probably final, conservative darling in the race. Romney made a few gaffes that have certainly hurt him, playing to a near-empty Ford’s Field and citing his wife’s two Cadillacs to name the main ones. What does it all add up to? A contested race that will probably drag on into the spring and even give Newt a chance to win his home state of Georgia.

On to the predictions.

First, in Arizona, the latest polls show that Mitt will win rather handily mainly because Santorum and Gingrich have pretty much conceded him the state. Arizona has a large Mormon population that will easily beat back the large Tea Party contingent at the polls (assuming that the Partiers can rush back from guarding the Mexican border in time to cast votes). Still, I think that Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote to make it convincing. Thusly:

Romney          43%

Santorum        30%

Gingrich          18%

Paul                 8%

In Michigan, things get complicated. In my view, Romney will need to win over 40% of the vote AND win by 10+ points to make a convincing statement. The polls aren’t showing that, but if enough voters decide at the last-minute that Santorum would be a sure loser in November, it could happen. I don’t see it.

What is more likely to happen is that Mitt wins, but by 3 points or fewer and gets below 40%. In that case, Santorum can claim a win-by-losing argument because Romney keeps saying that this is one of his home states (even though most voters don’t see the connection). The conservatives will have made their point and Santorum can then move on to Ohio and perhaps win that primary. He can also assume he’ll win Pennsylvania, which would greatly complicate Mitt’s message about electability.

Prediction:

Romney       39%

Santorum     37%

Paul             12%

Gingrich       10%

The race moves on to Super Tuesday. The national press will continue to talk about a brokered convention, which will not happen.  Romney will eventually be the nominee. Or have I said that already.

For more, please visit  www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and Twitter @rigrundfest 

Categories
college Politics Rick Santorum

President Obama’s Unofficial Response To Santorum’s “Snob” Remarks

President Obama took some time from his address to the Governors today, to allude to Rick Santorum’s remark that he is a snob for wanting Americans to have an opportunity to attend college.

Obama, who addressed a gathering of governors Monday at the White House, made an oblique reference to the remark as he urged the group to prioritize education.

“I have to make a point here,” he said midway through his speech. “When I speak about higher education, we’re not just talking about a four-year degree. We’re talking about somebody going to a community college and getting trained for that manufacturing job that now is requiring … some basic training beyond what they received in high school.”

This is not a new position: In an address to Congress three years ago, Obama called on every American to “commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training.” Though he didn’t refer to Santorum by name, Obama was obviously alluding to the former Pennsylvania senator’s remark, which cast Obama’s position as an insult to workers who don’t have a college degree.

Categories
Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Politics Rick Santorum

Secret Service Protection For Rick Santorum – Newt Gingrich… Maybe

It’s all about image.

Rick Santorum has decided that Mitt Romney shouldn’t be the only one walking around with Secret Service protection. He wants tax payers to pay for his protection too. Newt Gingrich asked as well, but we’re not sure if he’s that important yet.

Rick Santorum will be getting Secret Service protection beginning Tuesday, a campaign aide said on Monday.

Santorum, the former Republican senator from Pennsylvania, heads into Tuesday’s contests in Michigan and Arizona as one of the race’s top candidates after winning in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri earlier this month.

Santorum would be the second candidate still in the race to get protection. Mitt Romney already has it.

A Newt Gingrich campaign aide who asked not to be named confirmed that the Gingrich campaign requested Secret Service protection last week as well. The campaign was awaiting word on whether the request would be granted. The aide was unable to give more details.

What happened to “small government?” Is this not a waste of tax payer’s money to pay multiple Secret Service agents to protect three candidates when only one would be nominated to run for President?

How is this not a waste?

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

Wishing Detroit Go Bankrupt, Romney Now Begs for Their Vote – Video

Let’s take a moment to remind the wonderful people of Michigan what Mitt Romney thinks of them and their auto industry. If it was left up to him, hundreds of thousands of jobs would have been eliminated, as Romney took the position that Detroit should “go bankrupt.”

Failing to acknowledge that his position on the auto bailout was wrong, Mittens is now spending heavily in the motor city, expressing how much he loves the height of the trees to anyone who will listen. And it seems his efforts are paying off as Michigan voters are taking another look at the tree hugger before Tuesday’s vote.

Enter AFSCME, one of the biggest unions in the nation. They created this video as a friendly reminder to the people of where Mittens stood when he was given a chance to weigh in on how to fix the auto problem.

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney Mopping Up The Santorum In Michigan

New Polling suggests that Rick Santorum’s flavor is beginning to fade. And that is to be expected. You cannot run around the country talking nonsense and trying to take away women’s rights, and expect sensible Americans to keep buying into your stuff. Rick is beginning to see that insanity – the only qualification for today’s Republicans candidates – is a huge turn off for the rest of the public.

CNN) — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has erased a 10-point deficit against rival Rick Santorum among registered Republicans in the race for the GOP nomination, according to a new Gallup poll released Monday on the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primaries.

In the new Gallup tracking poll, 31% of respondents said they would support Romney and 26% said they favored Santorum, reversing a 36% to 26% advantage for the former Pennsylvania senator last week.

But another nationwide poll released Monday — addressing likely GOP voters nationwide — suggests the candidates are just about evenly split between presidential Santorum and Romney.

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