Category: Politics

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Barack Obama Politics

Registered and Likely: A Tale of Two Voters

A number of polls have been released in the past few days that continue to show the presidential race to be very close. What’s worth discussing at this point is the difference between polls that measure registered voters (RV) and those that have switched over to likely voter (LV) models. There’s a terrific article by Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost/Pollster that discusses this issue and he comes to some interesting, and ultimately unsatisfying conclusions. From the article:

The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now?

The answer, in part:

These “measures of engagement and intention to vote are useful as indicators of likely turnout on the aggregate level” at this stage in the campaign,” Pew Research associate research director Michael Dimock explained to The Huffington Post in June, “but they are only loosely predictors of whether an individual is or is not likely to vote this November.”

“As we get closer to Election Day,” he added, “particularly after the conventions and into the debate season — these indicators become stronger.”

With this in mind, let’s take a look at some recent polls that use LV models. Purple Strategies released a number of swing state polls showing Obama leading in Ohio (+3), Virginia (+2) and Colorado (+1) and Romney leading in Florida (+3). All of these results are within the margin of error and seem to suggest that Obama does well in states where he polls well with women and lags where men and independents do not support him. The Florida results are also in line with a Mason-Dixon poll that also uses an LV model and shows Obama with a 1 point advantage. Likewise, a new Rasmussen poll of Virginia also shows Obama with a small lead of 47-46%.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll uses an LV model and shows Romney with a 1 point lead today, within the margin of error.

If it’s true that Republicans tend to do better with LV models, then we can assume that Obama is truly ahead in the states where he leads and that Romney will need to move the dials a bit to overtake him.

On the RV side, a new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey gives Obama a 49%-38% lead while slightly oversampling Republicans. New Jersey is D 33/R 20/I 47 while the poll was D 34/R 24/ I 37.

Presumably, even if Quinnipiac went to an LV screen, Romney would not be within threatening distance of the president. My view is that New Jersey will remain blue this November.

A PPP Poll of Iowa has Obama leading by 48-43% with a D 35/ R 34/ I 30 split, when in reality, Iowa breaks D 31/ R 32/ I 37. PPP, which has a Democratic leaning house effect, has also slightly underpolled Republicans and overpolled Democrats. This leads me to believe that Iowa will probably lean Romney once polls move to an LV model.

At this point in the campaign, using likely voter models do not seem to be diverging a great deal from polls that use registered voters. As we get closer to the campaign’s major events, that will change. Romney has yet to choose a running mate, and that will help his numbers. The conventions will also provide major bumps for both candidates, as will the results of the first televised debate. If voters are settling in on one candidate, that will become evident by the middle of September, and as long as respondents tell the truth about their voting habits (what is the percentage of people who lie about such things?) we’ll get a fairly accurate view of any election trends.

Right now? Enjoy the summer, baseball and the Olympics.

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Mitt Romney Politics

Mitt Romney: Chairman, CEO and Sole Shareholder, But Not Responsible?

The good folks at the Obama Re-election campaign came up with another ad hitting Romney and his refusal to release his taxes to the American people. The ad ask the question, how was it possible that Romney was the Chairman, CEO and sole shareholder of the company, but not responsible for anything that happened under his watch?

Romney is already claiming he is not responsible for any hidden secrets his taxes may reveal because he entrust the investments of his funds to a “blind trust.” Of course we’ve already debunked that claim using Romney’s own words.

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Politics

Cuban Born John Sununu Said President Should Learn How To Be American. #Justsayin

John Sununu was born in Havana Cuba on July 2, 1939. He recently dialed up the Republican rhetoric trying to divert attention from Romney’s taxes, by claiming that President Obama does not know how to be American.

Sununu, a former Chief of Staff to the first President Bush, talked himself into a corner during a conference call with reporters. He was criticizing Obama for arguing in Virginia on Friday that wealthy Americans didn’t achieve success on their own, but rather were aided to varying degrees by government investments in infrastructure and education that helped fuel corporate profits.

Sununu said Obama’s rhetoric “clearly demonstrated that he has absolutely no idea” how the American economy functions.

“The men and women all over America who — who have worked hard to build these businesses, their businesses, from the ground up is how our economy became the envy of the world,” he went on.

“It is the American way. And I wish this president would learn how to be an American.”

When questioned about the comment, Sununu backtracked — instead saying that Obama “has to learn the American formula for creating businesses,” ABC reported.

But earlier, speaking to FOX News, Sununu went even further in questioning if the President’s values were red, white and blue.

“He has no idea how the American system functions, and we shouldn’t be surprised about that, because he spent his early years in Hawaii smoking something, spent the next set of years in Indonesia, another set of years in Indonesia; and, frankly, when he came to the U.S., he worked as a community organizer, which is a socialized structure, and then got into politics in Chicago,” Sununu said.

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Politics Senate

What Transparency? Senate Republicans Killed The Disclosure Act

For the second time in two days, Senate Republicans on Tuesday blocked legislation aimed at making campaign groups more transparent.

In a party-line 53-45 vote, the Senate killed the DISCLOSE Act. It needed at least 60 votes to move forward.

Republicans said the DISCLOSE Act would discourage free speech by intimidating donors. The bill would have prevented outside campaign groups from hiding their donors by requiring organizations that spend $10,000 or more during an election cycle to file a report with the Federal Election Commission within 24 hours and identify any donors who gave $10,000 or more.

“It is a predictable response,” Lisa Gilbert, Deputy Director at Public Citizen’s Congress Watch division, told Raw Story. “It’s a false claim. Only those who have something to hide think that disclosure harms free speech.”

“Disclosure is obvious, easy and Americans want it,” she added.

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Sarah Palin

John McCain – I Chose Palin Over Romney Because She Was A Better Candidate

In an interview with Politico today, John McCain let the cat out of the bag. He spoke about his vice president search in 2008 and told the online publication that from all the potential candidates, Romney included, he went “with the better candidate.”

“Why did we not take [Tim] Pawlenty, why did we not take any of the other 10 other people,” McCain said. “Why didn’t I? Because we had a better candidate, the same way with all the others. … Come on, why? That’s a stupid question.”

You heard that right, John McCain thought Sarah Palin was a better candidate for vice president. Sarah Palin, who didn’t know what news papers she read, who concluded that she had foreign experience because of Russia’s close vicinity to Alaska. John McCain thought that the woman who referred to herself as “a pitbull with lipstick” was better for the country than Mitt Romney.

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Mitt Romney Politics

Romney Lied: Documents Show He Signed At Least 6 Bain Documents Since 1999

Mitt Romney last Friday said he left Bain in 1999 and had absolutely nothing to do with the company he started – no meetings, no lunches with executives, no phone calls, no business discussions, nothing!

Well of course, that was a lie!

WASHINGTON — Between 1999 and 2001, Mitt Romney, then the CEO of Bain Capital, signed at least six documents that the private equity firm filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The documents run in direct contradiction to a claim that Romney has made repeatedly: that he had nothing to do with Bain, and therefore no responsibility for Bain investments, during that period.

It’s also a claim he made in August 2011 on the federal disclosure form he filed as part of his presidential bid. Romney didn’t leave any wiggle room: “Mr. Romney retired from Bain Capital on February 11, 1999 to head the Salt Lake Organizing Committee [for the 2002 Winter Olympics]. Since February 11, 1999, Mr. Romney has not had any active role with any Bain Capital entity and has not been involved in the operations of any Bain Capital entity in any way.”

That is false.

SEC files include at least six instances of Romney signing documents after February 1999, proving — unless the signatures were forged — that his claim to not have “been involved in the operations of any Bain Capital entity in any way” is wrong.

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

They’re Trying To Change The Subject – A Possible Shortlist For Romney’s VP Search

Conde’s not on the short list.

(Reuters) – Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney appears to be in the final stages of deciding who to pick as his vice presidential running mate, with speculation growing that he has narrowed his choice down to a short-list of three.

Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal all offer various strengths to Romney should he decide to pick one of them to join his battle to unseat President Barack Obama and his vice president, Joe Biden, in the November 6 election.

Many Republicans believe Romney will break from tradition and announce his choice well before the party’s convention in Tampa in late August that will formally nominate Romney as the Republican candidate.

Campaign officials were loathe to discuss the selection process or the short list but made clear that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had yet to make up his mind.

“No decision has been made. An announcement could happen any time between now and the convention, but it will only happen after a decision has been made and no decision has been made,” said Romney campaign senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom.

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Mitt Romney Politics

John McCain Confirms That What Mitt Romney Did At Bain Was “Cruel”

John McCain, the Republican Presidential Candidate in 2008 and now a Mitt Flip Romney supporter went on Fox News yesterday and confirmed to host Chris Wallace that what Mitt Romney has tried to deny since he began running for president over 6 years ago. John McCain confirmed that what Mitt Romney did at Bain Capital was in fact, “cruel.”

“This is the free enterprise system. The only place in the world that I can recall where companies never failed was the old Soviet Union. This is what investors do in the free enterprise and capitalism system. And, yes, the free enterprise system can be cruel. But the problem with this administration is that small businesses have been the ones that have suffered the most, the kind that need investors, the kind that don’t need the hundreds of pages, the thousands of pages of regulations that continue to plague them and have them continue to hold back on hiring and investment.”

With friends like these….!

Categories
Mitt Romney New Jersey Politics

We’ve Had It Up To Here With The Chris Christie Antics

Tired of the playground brawl that is the presidential election? Does the thought of two wonky, somewhat unpopular guys playing nyah-nyah get you down? Well, there’s always the drama created by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

But now that’s getting old too.

Yes, it seems as though the GOP’s darling is playing a little thinner these days and his antics don’t carry quite the same weight as they did eight months ago when he was denying himself, and the poor old United States, a run for the presidency.

For the record, Chris Christie will not be Mitt Romney’s running mate, nor will he be the Republican Party’s candidate for president any time soon… if ever. He might be a featured speaker at the GOP convention or get a cabinet post in a Romney administration and leave the frustrations of Trenton behind, but my sense is that he’d get bored being one of the lesser cabinet members and he could conceivably get us into some kind of war if offered State, Defense or Trade Representative. Secretary of Education?

 

Transportation? Why, use a helicopter to get around the traffic.

I’ve always disliked the stereotype of a “New Jersey attitude” and believe it to be harmful to the state, but even I won’t deny that Christie does exude a certain Garden State brusqueness. The problem is that it’s getting old here. A few months on the road and you’d see video of people with their mouths agape and eyes aghast at the man. Is he still popular with the base? No doubt. But the rest of the country has some manners, and the governor has shown that at critical times, he doesn’t.

Even worse, if Romney doesn’t win in November, then Christie might get tagged as a loser for supporting him. That would seriously damage his aura.

Don’t get me wrong. Christie can point to some significant legislative accomplishments including a 2% cap on municipal spending and the public worker pension and benefits bill that makes teachers, police and firefighters pay more while allowing him to delay full pension payments to the state. And rumor has it that he’s about to sign a teacher tenure reform bill that streamlines the process of firing an ineffective teacher, but not after two negative evaluations. That he was able to get the New Jersey Education Association [NJEA] to the table on tenure is a win for him, but it’s only a small part of what he wanted to accomplish and he’s frustrated. The suburbs are pushing back on Charter Schools, and the legislature will not give him that tax cut that is the gold standard of every Republican lawmaker looking to win national acclaim.

The problem is that the Democrats will continue to hold the legislature even if Christie wins reelection in 2013. What fun would that be? And how many more YouTube videos can you make berating retired public workers, soldiers and lefties who question his policies? (No, I will not provide links to those videos, but you can find them easily enough.)

So in this summer of discontent, the good governor has some decisions to make. None of them are easy, but all will have long-term impacts on his career. I expect that he will carry on as he has been because what he’s done so far is not an act. It’s who he is. And that might be the biggest problem of them all.

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Categories
Mitt Romney Politics Tax returns

Quote Of The Day – A Republican Strategist To Mitt Romney

His name is John Weaver. He was an early adviser to John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and he is still a Republican strategist today. He’s been listening to Mitt Romney make excuses after excuses for not releasing his tax returns – a practice for presidential candidates started by Romney’s father George Romney.

John, like many other sane Americans has heard enough and on Friday, he said this:

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

President Obama’s Campaign Team Answers Romney’s Call For an Apology

Mitt Romney is demanding an apology from President Obama for what he claims are actions that are beneath the dignity of his office. Romney was referring to suggestions by President Obama’s Deputy Campaign Manager – Stephanie Cutter, that Romney may have violated the laws and indulged in criminal activities for lying to the SEC.

This was too much for the apparent morally advanced Mitt Flip Romney. He went on five different television news shows on Friday denying all connections with Bain Capital during the time Stephanie Cutter mentioned. Furthermore, Romney wants the President to apologies to him for “the kinds of attacks that are coming from his team.”

“The president needs to take control of these people. He ought to disavow it and rein in these people who are running out of control. He sure as heck ought to say that he’s sorry for the kinds of attacks that are coming from his team.”

So naturally, the President’s campaign team put this video together as an answer to Romney’s pleas.

Categories
Mitt Romney Politics

Best Ad Yet – Romney Not The Solution, Romney Is The Problem

This one should win an award. But then again, every time Romney opens his mouth someone in the President’s campaign has material for another Romney debunking.

The ad shows Romney singing (if you want to call it that) America The Beautiful – a song that highlights some of the wonders of this country. Meanwhile, in the background, some little known facts pop up about Romney’s so-called love for this nation – his outsourcing of American jobs, his offshore bank accounts etc., etc…

This one’s a keeper!

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