We are like an abused spouse. We say that this time would be the last. We will not put up with this anymore. But our abusers apologies and promise never to do it again, so… here we go again, living in fear with our abuser knowing that one day, we will once again be abused.
We are too weak to change the situation. Change it seems, is scary. So we put up with our abusers the Republicans and will apparently vote for them in November.
Nate Silver has gained respect from both sides if the political aisle because his predictions are usually spot on. Nate is predicting that our political abusers will once again promise not to abuse us, and like abused fools, we will give them another chance.
Nate’s March forecast projected a Republicans gain of 5.8 seats. You’ll no doubt notice the decimal place; how can a party win a fraction of a Senate seat? It can’t, but our forecasts are probabilistic; a gain of 5.8 seats is the total you get by summing the probabilities from each individual race. Because 5.8 seats is closer to six (a Republican takeover) than five (not quite), we characterized the GOP as a slight favorite to win the Senate.
The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So it’s shifted ever so slightly — by one-tenth of a seat — toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we’d take a Republican Senate.
