So Rand Paul has sent out mailings to his supporters telling them some rather impossible to believe claims about Obamacare. Of course his supporters drink it all as truth. They happily believe everything these Republicans say. But PolitiFact has checked and this lie got their Pants on Fire ratings.
According to PolitiFact, someone sent them the mailing from Rand Paul claiming that “for every Kentuckian that has enrolled in Obamacare, 40 have been dropped from their coverage.” An insane ratio, I know. And I’m not the only one who found this claim rediculous. It also caught the attention of PolitiFact. They checked into Paul’s claim and found this:
Tracking cancellations isn’t so easy, because cancellations are issued by private health insurance companies, and regulations differ in each state. The Associated Press assembled a comprehensive, 50-state look at Obamacare-related cancellations and concluded that, in Kentucky, 130,000 people received cancellation notices. Meanwhile, the Kentucky Department of Insurance has put the number at 168,000.
So a reasonable number for cancellations in Kentucky is probably between 130,000 and 168,000.
How many Kentuckians have signed up for Obamacare?
The answer depends on your definition of “Obamacare.”
The broader measure includes both signups for private insurance at the state-run Kynect insurance marketplace, as well as signups for Medicaid, the longstanding government-run health insurance program for the poor that Kentucky chose to expand under Obamacare.
In late April 2014, the state announced that 82,795 Kentuckians had purchased private plans on Kynect and 330,615 others had qualified for Medicaid coverage, for a total of 413,410. Data from the federal Department of Health and Human Services that counts a few more weeks of signups had slightly higher numbers.
Comparing the two numbers
Using just these numbers, Paul is either wrong or very wrong.
The smaller number — private-insurance number of signups (82,795) — is exceeded by the number of cancellations (up to 168,000), but at most, the discrepancy is only twice as big, not 40 times as big.
But it’s not clear that this is the right number to use. Paul’s newsletter didn’t only refer to private plans, and the Medicaid expansion was just as much a part of Obamacare as the marketplaces for private health insurance plans.
So if you include both types of signups (413,410), then the combined Medicaid and private-insurance signups in Kentucky actually exceeded the number of cancellations by more than double. So Paul’s claim is not just off-base, it’s actually going in the opposite direction.
In fact, the 40-times-higher claim is ridiculously off-base.
